Possible week 1 plays

Kinda bored so I'm going to go ahead and put up what I think I might play week 1. I usually bet small amounts week 1 because tbh it's not usually a profitable week for me. Week 2 and 3 I do much better. Anyway, here goes:

Philly/Cle Under 47

Kansas City -7

In general, I would never bet against Philip Rivers if the line is 7. I mean, if Philip Rivers strikes first, you're up 14. That's too much for me to take KC. KC definitely tenderized the Chargers last year, but in that game ALL of their O Line was out. All of them. 

btw, there's a chance I back off of Dallas, because Dallas usually starts poorly week one, they are a very consistency-driven team, a team that will win a ton of games when they get into rhythm, but when they are disrupted will often falter for a quarter or two. Last year it happened when they played week one, they almost gave a game away to the Giants. The year before, Romo played his worst games of the year Week One against the Niners. Last year, when Romo returned, he looked awful against the Panthers. I have no doubt he would have been just fine the next week, but having to come back against the Dolphins and then play four days later disrupted his routine. 

Packers -4 @ JAX is going to be the biggest sucker play of the week.

Too much chalk bro, if you pick like that you got no shot. Pick 3 dogs 2 favs if your serious about winning money. If you wanna go 500 bet like your thinking

There all road favorites wtf

Following Dogma is the real way to lose your bets. Every one of those bets has a good rationale behind it, and regardless of your rationale, following yourself is the way to win. 

btw, I was wrong, Oakland is +1 

Rounding Again took 50 favorites, 35 dogs.

SuperContest, he won in 2015. 

A few thoughts on minny vs Titans, this is the biggest value week one. Huge disparities when you look deeper.

Vikes were dark horse pick last year and somewhat overachieved. They are young, underrated on defense, extremely well coached, and have a qb who doesn't make a lot of bad decisions, even if he being too conservative.

Titans, there is a reason they had the number one pick. Completely awful on both sides of the ball. The only above average player they on their roster is Casey, who is a beast. But the two reasons you should fade the Titans are a) malarkey is a terrible head coach. Previous stop and the fact that an interim coach didn't even get at least a temporary bump like the Dolphins coach got is a huge red flag. B) organizational focus on changing team philosophy. Gm has repeatedly said he wants a smash mouth team in a league shifting to spreading things out. Signing Murray means they plan to put Marriotta under center more which goes against his strengths. Keeping that coach and putting Marriotta under center is the absolute worst case scenario.

Week one, it's hard to predict how teams will start, but given last season and huge disparity in coaching staffs, this could get ugly.

Great thread, great read as always. Good discussion here, wanna chime in on a few.

Whether I agree with the pick or not, to cap a game based on total yards is the WORST thing one could do. Total yards is the most senseless stat in Football, yet ESPN, FOX and CBS use them on any given Sunday. It's all about the efficiency per single play. TEN D ranked #24 in defensive PPG, #24 in NYPPA, #24 in Pass DVOA and #24 in run DVOA. There also ranked #26 in RZ efficiency. On the flip side, the Vikes ranked #9, #12, #11, #18 and #4 in these respective categories. There are miles of difference. TEN might have had a good run D YPC-wise, but it's a difference between giving up 2 yards on 1st down or 3 yards on 3rd and 2. In that regard, the Vikes did a better job whereas the Titans ranked close to last.

The reason Minny's offense wasn't highly efficient is Adrian Peterson and the stubborn play-calling by Norv Turner, not Teddy Bridgewater. You have to put your QB into the best position to succeed and that's where Turner completely failed in 2015. In 2014, when the star RB was absent, Bridgewater was put into shotgun formations and had to march downfield by making his smart decisions, throwing short and middle-ranged passes. In 2015, Teddy was put under center too often, because Peterson needs the ball from under center. Teddy had to drop deep and was asked to throw vertical routes. Neither had Bridgewater the arm strength or accuracy for deep passes, nor provided the OL any kind of pass protection and ranked near the bottom. Mike Wallace was completely useless in Minny, he isn't a loss for this offense. Laquon Treadwell is a perfect fit for this offense. Bridgewater has a great accuracy when throwing short/medium passes, he makes smart decisions and throws interceptable passes very rarely. If you count off drops and stuff, he had one of the highest accuracy percentages in the league.

I think you have some flawed memories on KC and SD in 2015. The Chargers defense and the team in general were actually pretty solid down the stretch, even though plagued with injuries. Since Denzel Perryman became a consistent starter at ILB, they were much better at defending the run and gave up 17.67 defensive PPG over the last 6 games. That would have ranked 5th on the season. In fact, they had a shot at forcing overtime AT KC with the very last play of the game against a team that was peaking off six consecutive wins at that point. Jason Verrett is one of the best coverage corners in the league and the team just added Joey Bosa who I believe can play the 3-4 end very well, Brandon Mebane and Casey Hayward which is a very underrated signing. This defense that finally came together at the end of last season added three good pieces.

The Chargers offense had so much bad luck last season, it's unbelievable. Look at the snap percentages:

LT King Dunlap (27%)
LG Orlando Franklin (53.1%)
C Chris Watt (15.7%)
RG DJ Fluker (73.7%)
RT Joe Barksdale (89%)
WR1 Keenan Allen (46.4%)
WR2 Malcolm Floyd (71.4%)
SWR Stevie Johnson (50.6%)
TE Antonio Gates (42.3%)

When 9 out of 11 players of your starting offense (assuming a 3WR 1TE 1RB set) average only 52.1% of the offensive snaps, how do you want to keep your defense sidelined?

Gordon had no shot at running efficiently behind that decimated offensive line. Not only do I expect the offense to be back healthy, they added Travis Benjamin who can stretch the field, Matt Slauson to bolster the offensive line and FB Derek Watt via the draft who was a big reason Melvin Gordon was so sucessful at Wisconsin. But the biggest gain is OC Ken Whisenhunt. He was the Chargers’ OC in 2013, the year the Chargers finished 2nd in NYPPA (7.5) and 2nd in pass DVOA (52.5%). During the last 10 years, the pass DVOA number of 50% was crossed only 13 times. In 2013, the Chargers made the playoffs. That year was also Rivers’ best season as a Charger with a completion percentage of 69.5% and a TD-INT ratio of 32-11.

The Chiefs will be missing Sean Smith (huge loss), Mike DeVito and Justin Houston for probably the first few weeks. Marcus Peters was DROY yes, but now he will be asked to cover #1 WRs most of the time. Justin Houston is a terrible loss, especially against a team that returns his first string offensive line.

Like Porc said, if Rivers scores first, you have a 14-0 start and the Chiefs aren't built to come from behind. This is an automatic play on the Chargers +7 for me. The line should Chiefs -3 but never should it be -7. It's public perception vs. reality.

Philly, I like the browns/eagles under too.  The panthers and the titans as well.  Think -7 chiefs might be too much as Porcelain and Suuma have said.

Anyone like giants/ dallas under 49?  Cowboys look like they will try to run a lot, control the clock.  Giants d should be better then last year with all new additions.  Last years week one ny/dallas game only went over because of a few flukey defensive tds. 

Btw, Teddy Bridgewater is 11-2 ATS on the road as a starter. But in 10 of those 13 games the Vikes were dogs. With the public perception shifting towards a well-built Vikes team, they might be favorites more often than they were in the past.

Bears haven't played week 1 away from home in 5 years.... Both offenses will have plenty of calibrating to do with the new pieces offensively. I have to go with the home team who has better offensive starters at every skill position and a better defense. At least cover by a TD, smells like a possible blowout to put the Texans Offense on the map.

Pros to Houston: huge mismatch bears o-line vs Texans front, even more so that Texans front might finally be healthy for the first time in a few years. Secondary is deep and more than enough to handle bears wide receivers. On offense, speed all over the field. While I love the signing of the two new lbs, how does Chicago stop anyone through the air?

Cons: only two huge question marks. First one is obvious, who is BO? They don't need him to be special, but he can he be average. With all the new pieces, it's hard to figure a week one matchup. Couple that with the Texans severe problem with starting fast, both season and game wise, it's tough to have a lot of faith covering more than a fg.

On the Bears/Texans, I really like what the Bears have done defensively, I'm just not sure what I'm going to see with that Offense, especially against Houston. If this were a Week 3 play I would be a lot more confident.

The biggest Question Marks I have that I'd like to see answered in this game: Who is Brock Osweiller throwing the ball to? Is Braxton Miller involved? Is Osweiller even a passable QB?

Who is protecting Jay Cutler? How fast is he getting rid of the ball? Is Kevin White the real deal?

As of now, looking at the two teams on paper, I would expect an evenly matched game and it would be hard to decide on which factor would push it toward Hou -5.5 or Chi +5.5. A battle of true unknowns.

To the guy who was talking about betting U 49 for the Cowboys Giants, buyer beware... I can't remember the last time the Giants Cowboys went Under the Total. It could have been the Matt Cassel game, but you shouldn't bet on football if you think Matt Cassel v. Tony Romo makes no difference!