All Forums | NFL Betting

Possible week 1 plays

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 5421
Posts: 62
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

On the Bears/Texans, I really like what the Bears have done defensively, I'm just not sure what I'm going to see with that Offense, especially against Houston. If this were a Week 3 play I would be a lot more confident.

The biggest Question Marks I have that I'd like to see answered in this game: Who is Brock Osweiller throwing the ball to? Is Braxton Miller involved? Is Osweiller even a passable QB?

Who is protecting Jay Cutler? How fast is he getting rid of the ball? Is Kevin White the real deal?

As of now, looking at the two teams on paper, I would expect an evenly matched game and it would be hard to decide on which factor would push it toward Hou -5.5 or Chi +5.5. A battle of true unknowns.


During the sample size I've seen from Osweiler:

He isn't an intelligent QB. He got problems reading coverages. Bad accuracy, poor anticipation. He can't throw a deep ball. But the Texans took Will Fuller so I expect them to force Osweiler to some deep throws. And Fuller had some drops at ND, bad combination. Hopkins also beasts on intermediate routes. Osweiler has thrown most of his yards on simple YAC throws. He threw a lot of interceptable passes but they weren't intercepted by average - regression to the mean.

The Texans OL has lost a good guy in Brooks and nobody knows whether Duane Brown will be 100% come week 1.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #27
But the other side of the equation that is yet to be determined, I feel, is what Bill O'Brien can do with a good QB. The right system can work for a player who isn't as mentally skilled. 

A good example here is last year, Brandon Weeden, struggling to complete passes in Dallas, goes to Houston and all the sudden lights the world on fire. He demonizes Dallas' release of him and says that the coaching staff was to blame for his failures in Dallas. 

But delving in deeper, you can see that Weeden is more comfortable in Bill O'Brien's one-read offense - O'Brien schools his Quarterbacks on looking for specific mismatches, and to target those mismatches. 

In 2015, O'Brien ends up having to use QBs like Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer, who don't live up to the coaching, and make terrible decisions halfway through the game that alter the course of wins and losses. 

The situation came to a head with their original starting QB, Ryan Mallett, when he missed a plane to play in Miami. When Mallett arrived to meet his team, he was told he would be released, and be a free agent.

The comparison between the Weeden in Dallas, and the Weeden in Houston, illustrates Bill O'Brien's ideals perfectly. 

In Dallas, where Weeden struggled, the team is used to the QB 1. Diagnosing the Defense, 2. Setting Protection, 3. Guiding the route combos, 4. Setting the RB's blocking assignment, 5. rechecking for blitz, 6. quickly resetting protections, 7. hot route main target, 8. snap the ball with 0 seconds remaining on the play clock and execute the play as called. 

Whereas in Houston, the team was used to their QB throwing late game soul crushing interceptions that look like Brain Hoyer is playing three-flags up and throwing the game up for grabs. Weeden was asked in Houston to do one thing: don't throw interceptions. The Motto seemingly being: "Our Defense is awesome: Relax, We've got this."

Houston's mistake was going back to Hoyer rather than stay with Weeden. I'm sure they were worried about Weeden getting the yips in the Playoffs, but irony served them a cold truth when Hoyer just gave the game away. Awful. 

My point here is that Osweiller is certainly better than Weeden, if only for having the psychological makeup of a winner. A winner doesn't get benched in Denver, but if he does, he leaves that sorry town the second he gets a chance, because they made a big mistake crossing him. 

Just my two cents, but I see the Texans having a rough start to the season against the Bears, where the Bears will keep the game close and maybe even steal a win... It's hard to predict what will happen between two teams with such awful O Lines, but I also see the Texans as being a team with a ton of talent and enough to prove in the most important places, being QB, Coach with chips on their shoulders. WR who are young, talented and hungry to make a name for themselves. DEF: a team literally STACKED on RACKS AND RACKS with talent. 

And a QB who has proven to be a winner when given the task: "Our Defense is Awesome. Just relax, we've got this."



 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1754
Posted: #28
Well I have taken some of the comments here into account and had a bit more of a think about these games.. might be changing it up a bit. Still playing some of the same games but in a different way.

Quite likely that I play on the Jags instead of the Titans now just because while they haven't proven anything yet, they are definitely farther along the rebuild road than Tennessee, and with public perception of GB still a bit inflated and Jags underrated, I feel pretty good about the play. Still like the Over a bit tho.

I don't know why I didn't think of this one before, but the Titans/Vikes should be a good spot for an under. Mariota coming off injury, an O-line rebuild and 2 new RBs (Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry) I would say the Titans will not want to be putting their franchise QB into too much danger week 1 and he hasn't played in a while so they'll be handing off a lot and could struggle to put the ball in the end zone. The Vikings of course will be handing to Peterson a lot and as I wrote before, lack deep threats at WR.

I will also capitulate that the KC line is probably too high. It's just I kept thinking SD would turn it around at some point last year and they just went from bad to worse I don't think they will fix it right away. But with KC losing Doug Pederson, the guys Suuma mentioned, and still not having a potent threat at WR (very few TDs from that group the last couple seasons), and SD's familiarity with them, might be better to lay off.

And instead I might lay the 7 points with Philly and skip the Under. I don't like to play on teams with new coaches but Bradford is a vet who has had to learn new systems before. I'd be surprised if RG3 is more comfortable with his new offense than Bradford is with his, especially considering Sam is still throwing to all the same guys and they are talented and have more experience. Like I said Cleveland's cupboard is bare. Both teams had bad defenses but I think Philly might finally make strides there. It might be the only time I play on them all year but it is probably a good spot.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1754
Posted: #29
I think probably the strongest play will be the Super Bowl revenge for Carolina. Denver now has Von Miller peed off at Elway, and Osweiler bounced because of him, too. They've lost a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball the last few years. Last year their offense sucked and now the strength of their team has been decimated by losing some of their top defensive guys. Those losses don't just hurt the team in an X's and O's way, it makes guys question the loyalty of the mgmt and hurts morale. You saw it in Philly where they shipped out 'all the good black players' as was said. This offseason the Denver WRs were wondering who the heck their QB would be, and I'd say that taking Sanchez and a rookie is not really inspiring confidence in an improved offense for 2016.

Carolina only lost Norman, if Denver had a potent passing threat maybe that would be a concern, but they don't. Well they lost Jared Allen as well but they still have a monster pass rush. I highly doubt Sanchez is going to light up the Panthers like he did with the Eagles back in 2014, I'm confident Newton will outplay whoever they have under center.

I also think that the AFC West is actually a pretty weak division overall and the NFC is the superior conference. In interconference matchups I'll be looking to back the NFC.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #30
I'll definitely be on the Panthers, not only is it likely the best number posted (as long as it doesn't move), but it's opening night. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 3590
Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

To the guy who was talking about betting U 49 for the Cowboys Giants, buyer beware... I can't remember the last time the Giants Cowboys went Under the Total. It could have been the Matt Cassel game, but you shouldn't bet on football if you think Matt Cassel v. Tony Romo makes no difference!

Last year in the opening game, the halftime score was 6-3 and that game went Over. These two teams always have shootouts.

Last year I had the over 52, it was  a very lucky over.  49 seems low like a trap line because these two teams always go over like you said.    But I think Romo may be rusty coming off the surgery, they will likely run  and run some more to minimize his exposure to the giants new look passrush with verneer and jpp without the club.  Running will also keep Manning and beckham on the sidelines.  Dallas will be without a few pass rushers who are suspended I believe so they will want to win the time of possession.  With Harrison in the middle the Giants run d will be stronger so maybe they can hold dallas to more fgs then tds.  If any of these things happen I think it will be 23-20 type game.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #32
It was a lucky over in one regard, but that game was very much a bad job officiating, firstly, they overturned three different Dallas Turnovers. They also didn't call pass interference in the end zone when Dez Bryant was held down by the DB, this would have led to points. 

Remember, like I was saying before, this game was 6-3 at half time, so of course you were lucky to catch the Over, but regardless, you're playing with fire betting against two teams who produced 45 points in ONE HALF!! 

In the last 7 games that Eli Manning and Tony Romo have met, the total is 6-1 for the Over.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #33
In the last 6 meetings, the over is 6-0
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2014
Posts: 1404
Posted: #34
You also have to understand that when 2 teams are click so well against eachother it's going to lead to points. The Cowboys bad secondary against a very high powered passing game vs the Giants terrible run down against possibly the best rb committee in the league. Each team will likely be able to take what they want here. As for the upgrades on D, I don't consider them to be a big factor week 1
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 3590
Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by nygjmap:

You also have to understand that when 2 teams are click so well against eachother it's going to lead to points. The Cowboys bad secondary against a very high powered passing game vs the Giants terrible run down against possibly the best rb committee in the league. Each team will likely be able to take what they want here. As for the upgrades on D, I don't consider them to be a big factor week 1

Okay, maybe I am overthinking this but, Why is it only 49 then?  When it has consistently been in the low 50s.  Are they giving everyone a free win to start the year?  Everyone will be on the over.  Do you think dallas wants to get into a shootout when multiple pass rushers will be missing?  Dallas will run, run and run some more and kill the clock.  You don't think Romo will be rusty coming off the injury? 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 3590
Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

In the last 6 meetings, the over is 6-0

Good point but  remember saints vs falcons would go over most of the time  even in the low to mid 50s, everyone would bet it over,  It started going under recently.  Twice in 2013 once in 2014 and once in 2015 when the saints d was horrendous.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #37
You can always bet it, but you're betting for the outlier. 49 points in today's NFL isn't a ton. These teams scored 45 in one half last year.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2016
Posts: 238
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

Rounding Again took 50 favorites, 35 dogs.
What is "Rounding Again" and what did he or she win?TIA.



He won the supercontest last year
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2610
Posted: #39
Assuming no major injuries...I love the Eagles week 1.

They usually do well and win (unless they are playing ATL or GB), and haven't had back to back opening losing games since 2003. Cleveland is horrid, and rebuilding. Low scoring blow out 31-10 type of game. 

Cinncy line is a trap, that is going to jump to -3 for the road team, but somehow someway the Jets screw things up. NO is also a PK against Oakland at home, that's impossible, I know Oakland has improved, but they can't win in a shoot out against NO on the road.

Giants/Dallas Ov 49, that game has gone Over every time they play in Dallas going back to 2008, then it went over again the next three times. Romo coming back has something to prove, Eli always plays well against the Giants. They both always score points. 

I don't know how much Miami has improved, but Seattle at home will beat them by 10+. Miami was 27th in points scored last year, against some crappy teams. Pete likes to make statements and run up scores if he can. 


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:

Assuming no major injuries...I love the Eagles week 1.

They usually do well and win (unless they are playing ATL or GB), and haven't had back to back opening losing games since 2003. Cleveland is horrid, and rebuilding. Low scoring blow out 31-10 type of game. 

Cinncy line is a trap, that is going to jump to -3 for the road team, but somehow someway the Jets screw things up. NO is also a PK against Oakland at home, that's impossible, I know Oakland has improved, but they can't win in a shoot out against NO on the road.

Giants/Dallas Ov 49, that game has gone Over every time they play in Dallas going back to 2008, then it went over again the next three times. Romo coming back has something to prove, Eli always plays well against the Giants. They both always score points. 

I don't know how much Miami has improved, but Seattle at home will beat them by 10+. Miami was 27th in points scored last year, against some crappy teams. Pete likes to make statements and run up scores if he can. 




You don't know how much Miami has improved but you know Seattle will beat them by 10+ at home? Because the Fins were 27th in scored points LAST YEAR?

Seriously?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:

Assuming no major injuries...I love the Eagles week 1.

They usually do well and win (unless they are playing ATL or GB), and haven't had back to back opening losing games since 2003. Cleveland is horrid, and rebuilding. Low scoring blow out 31-10 type of game. 

Cinncy line is a trap, that is going to jump to -3 for the road team, but somehow someway the Jets screw things up. NO is also a PK against Oakland at home, that's impossible, I know Oakland has improved, but they can't win in a shoot out against NO on the road.

Giants/Dallas Ov 49, that game has gone Over every time they play in Dallas going back to 2008, then it went over again the next three times. Romo coming back has something to prove, Eli always plays well against the Giants. They both always score points. 

I don't know how much Miami has improved, but Seattle at home will beat them by 10+. Miami was 27th in points scored last year, against some crappy teams. Pete likes to make statements and run up scores if he can. 




The Jets might go 3-3 or even 2-4 so start the season, but this game is the best matchup for them.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

Where Week One is concerned, you can't always go by last year's stats, especially with teams that have new head coaches. Some teams will probably play close to last year's form - New Orleans, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh - come to mind. But some are going to be mildly to vastly improved, and others the opposite.

This year's Oakland team is going to be far improved. This year's Dallas team is not going to be what we saw last year. Miami has cleaned out their coaching staff and will be approaching things much differently. Cleveland is going to be improved. Jacksonville will be improved. The Bears will be improved.

The Jets are going to be less than what we saw last year. Philly is going to be far less than what we saw last year, and that's not saying much. Many will disagree with me, but I see Arizona taking a huge fall.

 


Although you are talking very superficial, I agree with everything except Philly and Cleveland.

I am very excited about the Eagles. This is going to be a good defense. Brandon Brooks will fix a weak spot on the offensive line and Sam Bradford was one of the smartest QBs last season. After studying him, the move to take Carson Wentz looks even more stupid to me. Doug Pederson got the best out of a KC offense that lacked a good receiving corps or a so called "star RB".

Hue Jackson is good for the Browns, but I don't expect anything in year one. Losing Mack & Schwartz hurts a lot and Corey Coleman can't fix that receiving corps alone. Some interesting pieces on D but they can't put that defense to the next level. I would like to call the upcoming Browns season "The road to Deshaun Watson".


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #43
The Eagles Offensive Line will continue to suck, Brooks is the best they could do with what they were given, but he really was below average last year, and I'm not the only one who thinks so. PFF graded him 66.7, or a D. Babre was by far the worst of them, as he was part of the civ that was the Eagles interior O Line that made DeMarco Murray look like the worst running back in the league. 

I am excited for the Eagles Defense, but not for their prospects in beating even average NFL teams. They have little Depth at WR, and unless they start Chase Daniels, they have a jittery QB with very little moxy. 

I think the Jets are a well built, well coached team who will win 9 games, but I don't see them beating Cincinnati. 

Oakland is looking scary good defensively. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2013
Posts: 340
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

I'll definitely be on the Panthers, not only is it likely the best number posted (as long as it doesn't move), but it's opening night. 


This game will be heavily lopsided imo. What reason other than at home is there to bet Denver? Every person on the planet will be betting Carolina and gun to my head, thats who I take also.

The public will not back the SB champs without Manning. Everyone knows about Mr.Buttfumble Sanchez. How can anyone put money on him? The defense isnt the same as last year and everyone knows Carolina lost Norman so maybe they think Denver has a chance? I dont know but this Denver team is like putting money on the Jags with Blaine Gabbert at the helm years ago. It just seems too easy to just say Carolina is going to win. Maybe it is as easy that.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #45
Carolina, after all, was just 7-8-1 two years ago...

But Rivera does so many strange things on Defense with such an awesome assortment of talent, that it just seems like a Denver team with a new QB and a shaky O Line are going to have troubles with them. 

If Sanchez starts this line should really be Carolina -7. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

The Eagles Offensive Line will continue to suck, Brooks is the best they could do with what they were given, but he really was below average last year, and I'm not the only one who thinks so. PFF graded him 66.7, or a D. Babre was by far the worst of them, as he was part of the civ that was the Eagles interior O Line that made DeMarco Murray look like the worst running back in the league. 

I am excited for the Eagles Defense, but not for their prospects in beating even average NFL teams. They have little Depth at WR, and unless they start Chase Daniels, they have a jittery QB with very little moxy. 

I think the Jets are a well built, well coached team who will win 9 games, but I don't see them beating Cincinnati. 

Oakland is looking scary good defensively. 


How are the Bengals going to score without Eifert?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2016
Posts: 738
Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

 . Many will disagree with me, but I see Arizona taking a huge fall.

 

you had me up until this last point - what are you basing this on?  Def should stand firm, and the offense picked up a few weapons (not to mention their division competition got even narrower) - curious to hear what makes you feel they are going to take a huge drop.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #48
I am very much intrigued by anything you have to say, Dr. Success. I think it's funny that there are so few football minds who can discuss these issues at length. I would like to pose to you one question:

Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer. Two aging vets that I will certainly give you as your argument for "aging rapidly". 

Who else?

@Suuma, you bring up a great point about the Bengals likely difficulty scoring on the Jets. 

Wilkerson, Williams, Richardson... Wow. Those guys are going to wreak havoc. They still have Revis, Marcus Williams had a great year, now you guys pick up Bruce Carter (who I believe will thrive as an Inside Linebacker like he did in 2012 with Dallas when they still ran a 3-4). 

I like your Safety tandem as well. 

When you think about it, it makes the Jets an intriguing thought, maybe the Controversy boosting their value with people overvaluing Ryan Fitzpatrick. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #49
I would actually venture that Offensive Line is a leverage position, similar to wrestling or Judo. Offensive Linemen, especially interior linemen, are effective into their mid thirties, and Mathis in particular has proven himself to be effective. 

I would also venture that pocket passers do not decline at 33. Tom Brady is still playing at a high level. Drew Brees as well. It is a new era in football, and the analytics are slow to catch up. QB is a low wear position. The freak injuries that occur to everyone are not career ending. Peyton's was his neck, which deals with torque. Past this, the QB's job is to make decisions. Arm strength is important, but decision making moreso. 

Chris Johnson is not of high significance to this team, seeing how David Johnson is their lead guy and he's 22. He's also a freak of nature. 

Larry Fitzgerald could lose a step, but there's reason why he's still effective, they are basically using him as a split wide tight end. He blocks well in the run game and he wins with brains and leverage. 

I understand where you are coming from, but I respectfully disagree. I think that the Cardinals are built incredibly well and I respect the heck out of their coach. Not to mention, I just haven't seen them aging in the wrong spots. QB and G don't worry me, Carson Palmer is only 36. On Defense they are young and strong. 
 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1754
Posted: #50
Just going back to the Texans-Bears game, I have to disagree somewhat with the Bears as a play.

While Cutler and the offense have improved under Adam Gase, they lost Martellus Bennett who was a massive part of the offense. He was the chain-mover, the security blanket and a matchup nightmare. Without him to bail out Cutler I think the Texans D will be tough to move the ball on.

And Chicago's defense stinks. Whenever I watched them last year I was baffled by how they could never get the key stops they needed, constantly giving up 1st downs on 3rd and long, giving up big plays, missing tackles, and they seemed to never be able to cause turnovers, even when the ball was right there to be picked off.

Because of that I don't think they can take advantage of Osweiler's weaknesses enough to turn this road game in their favor. Houston, on the other hand, was the best team in the league at stopping 3rd down conversions and one of the best at taking the ball away.

The Texans inability to run the ball is what concerns me more than Brock Osweiler, he will probably do fine under O'Brien vs a defense like this one. He has Nuke Hopkins who is one of the best in the game. He didn't play amazing vs the Bears last year but that was his first game as a starter, Fox and Cutler playing their own team, and the Bears were at home.

Without Bennett, Chicago will struggle vs the Texans D in 3rd Down and in the Red zone.
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.