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Post Your Most Confident Prop Bet For SB LI

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Views: 5974
Posts: 45
 
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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Broncodevil:

I've posted a couple of preliminary prop bets i like. Only 3 so far.

The one that makes sense to me is SANU OVER 4 REC -115

I also took Julio Jones UNDER 98.5


The Patriots love to take the key offensive player out of the game 

and make someone else beat them.

Also, if you think NE wins, and I do, the Falcons will be throwing

it a lot in the 4th quarter and Sanu gets over the 4 while Jones is 

double covered.

The Falcons were 4-0 in games that Julio had less than 50 yds receiving and 3-4 when he went for over 100.
 
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Posted: #27
Love this one

Will there be a 2pt conversion attempt:  Yes +125


Nice value in this one

No turnovers in game +520
 
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Posted: #28
^^^
Will there be a 2pt conversion attempt:  Yes +125

 actually looks pretty good. figure it will prob be atl trying it after a couple stalled drives end up in fgs.


my fav prop so far is at william hill. who will have more... toronto raptors points -5.5 or julio jones rec yds?
raptors play the nets sunday morning

 
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Posted: #29
Good Stuff
I like the Brady one mentioned, he has not thrown a lot of picks this year and figures to control the rock again
 
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Posted: #30
These are the opening Westgate prop bet lines (over 400), I know some of the odds have changed since this was published:

https://www.espn.com/graphics/2017/Jan/SBLI-Props.pdf
 
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Posted: #31

Sanu over 4 pass completions.

This will likely cover by the 3rd quarter or earlier.

Matt Ryan line for pass attempts is 37!

Julio Jones will get double coverage in most situations.

 
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Posted: #32
I looked at the pat players scoring a td.if you look at the odds no one is going to score.  sportsbook.ag
 
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Posted: #33
Julio Jones will be MVP,
 
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Posted: #34
Under 4.5 sacks -150. I don't see a lot of pressure to begin with against those solid offensive lines...and both QBs nimble enough in the pocket. 
 
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Posted: #35
I've only analyzed a few so far but I found one I love already: Atlanta fumbles lost Under 1.5/-190

Atlanta has lost 2 or more fumbles ...... ZERO times this year. And only lost 1, 4 times. The Patriots recovered 2 or more fumbles only 4 times. Looks like very large EV to me.
 
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Posted: #36
Will Atlantas first kickoff be a touchback? Yes.  ATL's usually kicks it off to the endzone for touchbacks and belichick doesnt like his players to return kicks out of the endzone
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Love this one

Will there be a 2pt conversion attempt:  Yes +125


Nice value in this one

No turnovers in game +520

quick.. name the last super where there wasnt at least one TO...  right, none in last 20


 
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Posted: #38
steph curry points + assists vs  total 1st half points

taking steph curry here. dont see this game being as high of a shootout as all think and curry has been on fire past 5 games or so scoring, scored 40+ 2 games ago and has no less then 6 assists in his last 10 games. look for his total pt + assist to be at least 30+
 
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Posted: #39
also rly like isiah thomas points -2.5 vs matt ryan completions.

thomas has avged around 35 pts in his recent games and topped 40 a few times even. he has gone no less then 20 pts in almost all of his recent games and one of them was when he only played half the game and still had 20 pts. theyre playing the clippers who have given up around 120 pts per game recently.  matt ryan hasnt had more then 28 completions all season and has avged right around 25-26 almost all season. he  would need an insane game just to even top around 30 completions, so really liking the chance with thomas in what should be a high scoring game. 
 
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Posted: #40

Football - Total Touchdown Passes - Matt Ryan (ATL)

QB Props @ Super Bowl 51

Over 2.5 (-145) Feb 5, 2017 5:30 PM


Football - Super Bowl - What will the Falcons do First - Score or Punt?

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons

Score -140 Feb 5, 2017 5:30 PM

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by herbals:

^^^
Will there be a 2pt conversion attempt:  Yes +125

 actually looks pretty good. figure it will prob be atl trying it after a couple stalled drives end up in fgs.


my fav prop so far is at william hill. who will have more... toronto raptors points -5.5 or julio jones rec yds?
raptors play the nets sunday morning

went to raps -4.5 so im taking more, with jones rec yds @92.5, if toronto can get their average of 109 or better, i will have a decent middle

also looking at ATL score 1st, NE wins game @ +300

m bennett to score a td +180


 
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Posted: #42
Jones under 95 receiving  yards and Sanu over 47.5 yards yards....whatever the odds grab it now....
 
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Posted: #43
Malcom Mitchell over 32.5 yards
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by DeLoreanStylez:

steph curry points + assists vs  total 1st half points

taking steph curry here. dont see this game being as high of a shootout as all think and curry has been on fire past 5 games or so scoring, scored 40+ 2 games ago and has no less then 6 assists in his last 10 games. look for his total pt + assist to be at least 30+
I took this bet but it was CURRY -2.5..........

Still in great shape......44-2.5 = 41.5      !!!
 
 
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Posted: #45
Excellent thread. Wish we had more of these. 
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