I haven't had the chance yet to thoroughly go through all of them yet but my book has hundreds...some ridiculous, others interesting. I feel as though prop bets are more "fun" bets (if that makes any sense), rather than your more competitive sports bet. Needless to say, what is your most confident prop bet for this years Super Bowl?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I haven't had the chance yet to thoroughly go through all of them yet but my book has hundreds...some ridiculous, others interesting. I feel as though prop bets are more "fun" bets (if that makes any sense), rather than your more competitive sports bet. Needless to say, what is your most confident prop bet for this years Super Bowl?
- QBs won 7 of last 10 MVPs, basically a proxy for the moneyline. Pretty decent way to get better return on a moneyline investment.
- Vic Beasley +5000
- 2 of the 3 non-QBs to win the MVP were defensive players / pass rushers with dominant performances
- NE doesn't really have a primary pass rush guy, so I can't see one of the those defensive players (Long, Ninkovich, Hightower) getting enough to overcome Brady if NE wins
2. Total Passing Attempts - Matt Ryan over 37.5 -125
- Attempted 37 and 38 vs SEA and GB respectively
- If ATL trails NE, Ryan is going to have to throw
- ATL likes to use Freeman and Coleman as pass catchers (#4 and #5 on team in receptions), so run games partially becomes short pass game
3. Rushing Yards - Blount over 57.5 (-105) / Rushing Attempts - Blount over 14.5 (-130)
- There is good chance NE will exploit run game vs Atlanta, Atlanta's run defense is much worse than pass defense
- Blount has advantage in size vs Atlanta's run defense, compared to Lewis who is more Devonta Freeman-sized
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1. Super Bowl MVPs
- Brady +140
- Ryan +225
- QBs won 7 of last 10 MVPs, basically a proxy for the moneyline. Pretty decent way to get better return on a moneyline investment.
- Vic Beasley +5000
- 2 of the 3 non-QBs to win the MVP were defensive players / pass rushers with dominant performances
- NE doesn't really have a primary pass rush guy, so I can't see one of the those defensive players (Long, Ninkovich, Hightower) getting enough to overcome Brady if NE wins
2. Total Passing Attempts - Matt Ryan over 37.5 -125
- Attempted 37 and 38 vs SEA and GB respectively
- If ATL trails NE, Ryan is going to have to throw
- ATL likes to use Freeman and Coleman as pass catchers (#4 and #5 on team in receptions), so run games partially becomes short pass game
3. Rushing Yards - Blount over 57.5 (-105) / Rushing Attempts - Blount over 14.5 (-130)
- There is good chance NE will exploit run game vs Atlanta, Atlanta's run defense is much worse than pass defense
- Blount has advantage in size vs Atlanta's run defense, compared to Lewis who is more Devonta Freeman-sized
2. Total Passing Attempts - Matt Ryan over 37.5 -125
- Attempted 37 and 38 vs SEA and GB respectively
- If ATL trails NE, Ryan is going to have to throw
- ATL likes to use Freeman and Coleman as pass catchers (#4 and #5 on team in receptions), so run games partially becomes short pass game
Given the stats I would probably go under on this one.
The two games you mentioned ATL had above average 3rd down conversions and first downs:
Conversions - Fist Downs - Attempts
10/13 - 30 - 38 attempts
6/12 - 28 - 37 attempts
ATL First Downs per Game: 24.3
ATL 3rd Down Conversions per Game: 5.1
ATL Pass Attempts per game: 34
NEP Opp First Downs per Game: 18.3
NEP Opp 3rd Down Conversions per Game: 4.9
NEP Opp Pass Attempts per game: 37.9
Figure 21-22 First Downs for ATL thats about 6-7 fewer first downs or 18-21 fewer offensive plays for ATL. They only went over 37.5 once out of the two games you point out and both those games they had the upper hand against lesser defenses.
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Quote Originally Posted by OStateBucks:
2. Total Passing Attempts - Matt Ryan over 37.5 -125
- Attempted 37 and 38 vs SEA and GB respectively
- If ATL trails NE, Ryan is going to have to throw
- ATL likes to use Freeman and Coleman as pass catchers (#4 and #5 on team in receptions), so run games partially becomes short pass game
Given the stats I would probably go under on this one.
The two games you mentioned ATL had above average 3rd down conversions and first downs:
Conversions - Fist Downs - Attempts
10/13 - 30 - 38 attempts
6/12 - 28 - 37 attempts
ATL First Downs per Game: 24.3
ATL 3rd Down Conversions per Game: 5.1
ATL Pass Attempts per game: 34
NEP Opp First Downs per Game: 18.3
NEP Opp 3rd Down Conversions per Game: 4.9
NEP Opp Pass Attempts per game: 37.9
Figure 21-22 First Downs for ATL thats about 6-7 fewer first downs or 18-21 fewer offensive plays for ATL. They only went over 37.5 once out of the two games you point out and both those games they had the upper hand against lesser defenses.
If NEP can control TOP that limits Ryan's opportunities for pass attempts.
The only thing that can save Ryan here is having a disproportionate amount of pass plays over rush plays due to paying from behind, so I'd have to look at games where ATL played from behind w/ less TOP to see what kind of attempts he put up.
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Time of Possession another key factor here
ATL TOP in those two playoff games: 33:39 / 33:19
ATL avg TOP= 30:33
NEP Opp avg TOP = 28:58
If NEP can control TOP that limits Ryan's opportunities for pass attempts.
The only thing that can save Ryan here is having a disproportionate amount of pass plays over rush plays due to paying from behind, so I'd have to look at games where ATL played from behind w/ less TOP to see what kind of attempts he put up.
Ryan only surpassed 37.5 Attempts 3 times, twice regular season and once in playoffs, I'd say under is looking pretty strong, particularly looking at the TOP numbers needed to reach that number of attempts:
Games with Ryan > 37.5 Attempts
W1 v TBB L 24-31 39 Att TOP 32:23
W6 @ SEA L 24-26 42 Att TOP 29:51
W20 v GBP W 44-21 38 Att TOP 33:39
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Ryan only surpassed 37.5 Attempts 3 times, twice regular season and once in playoffs, I'd say under is looking pretty strong, particularly looking at the TOP numbers needed to reach that number of attempts:
Don't see any relationships with NE / Atl so why would his name come up. I can see comparision to Von Miller if Beasley having MVP-type game. I would think tie at worst.
He's already said he won't be showing up at SB til he's in one.
Don't see any relationships with NE / Atl so why would his name come up. I can see comparision to Von Miller if Beasley having MVP-type game. I would think tie at worst.
He's already said he won't be showing up at SB til he's in one.
Lady Gaga 1st song other than The Edge of Glory, Born This Way, Just Dance, Bad Romance, Applause, Poker Face, Paparazzi at +500.
Taking stab that she starts with song from her latest album Joanne before heading into her more popular songs. Expectation is she no guest artists so time to start a less well-known song. Tony Bennett is introducing her via video so maybe something they did together.
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Lady Gaga 1st song other than The Edge of Glory, Born This Way, Just Dance, Bad Romance, Applause, Poker Face, Paparazzi at +500.
Taking stab that she starts with song from her latest album Joanne before heading into her more popular songs. Expectation is she no guest artists so time to start a less well-known song. Tony Bennett is introducing her via video so maybe something they did together.
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