Posted:
#1
This system is a derivative of Porky's original 2H betting system - which started out in College Football and was applied to the NFL. Please see other posts or my blog for information about NJPorky's 2H betting system. In one of NJPorky's threads, I wrote about and started tracking how qualifying teams with his system would fare
when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/-
7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle.
The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.
A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.
While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend back in week 7 and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season.
This year 16 games presented a 2H line greater than or equal to 7 points. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.
WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (
) - middle 8.5
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG () - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE () - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN ( - middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (
) - middle 16.5 (4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL () - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL () - middle 2.5
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN () - middle 7
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS () - middle 8
WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG () - middle 4.5
WK 7 - STL +7 @ DAL () - middle 17.5
WK 8 - KC +7 @ NYJ () - middle 7
WK 8 - CLE +7 @ JAX () - middle 10
WK 9 - CIN +7 vs. JAX () - middle 11.5 (another 4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 9 - KC +7 vs. TB () - middle 13.5 (lost with 0:25 left)
WK 10 - KC +10 @ SD () - middle 10 (a miracle end)
CURRENT RECORD IS 13-3 (81%) YTD.
Road teams are a perfect 11-0 (100%)!!
Porky's system uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 4-3 YTD. All plays appear to be on the 2H dogs, however, this is not a dog system!!
Also note, the same teams appear to qualify every week (CLE, CIN, KC, etc.) - the BAD teams which just happen to play well enough in the 1st half to grab a +7 or higher 2H line.
So with the tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this and make it into a system.
I will continue to post plays as they fall into this system. Let's take some of that bookie's bacon!!
The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.
A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.
While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend back in week 7 and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season.
This year 16 games presented a 2H line greater than or equal to 7 points. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.
WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (
) - middle 8.5WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (
) - middle 9WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (
) - middle 19WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (
- middle 5WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (
) - middle 16.5 (4th Qtr meltdown)WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (
) - middle 9WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (
) - middle 2.5WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (
) - middle 7WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (
) - middle 8WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG (
) - middle 4.5WK 7 - STL +7 @ DAL (
) - middle 17.5WK 8 - KC +7 @ NYJ (
) - middle 7WK 8 - CLE +7 @ JAX (
) - middle 10WK 9 - CIN +7 vs. JAX (
) - middle 11.5 (another 4th Qtr meltdown)WK 9 - KC +7 vs. TB (
) - middle 13.5 (lost with 0:25 left)WK 10 - KC +10 @ SD (
) - middle 10 (a miracle end) CURRENT RECORD IS 13-3 (81%) YTD.
Road teams are a perfect 11-0 (100%)!!
Porky's system uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 4-3 YTD. All plays appear to be on the 2H dogs, however, this is not a dog system!!
Also note, the same teams appear to qualify every week (CLE, CIN, KC, etc.) - the BAD teams which just happen to play well enough in the 1st half to grab a +7 or higher 2H line.
So with the tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this and make it into a system.
I will continue to post plays as they fall into this system. Let's take some of that bookie's bacon!!
0
If its a play at +7 why wouldn't it be one at +9½?
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