Rainy season here in Thailand,So

I have a few results to share. There is currently some debate as to what constitutes a large enough sample size for it

to be relevant for handicapping situational trends. I am in the vast minority that due to the quick change in rules,strategy,athletes

betting markets etc that large are sample sizes are NOT that pertinent anymore. They should still honored but imho are not a top of the totem pole.

With this in mind (between storms) I started looking at what things are propping their heads up thus far in 2024.

DID you know that: All records are ATS

1.The team that wins the sack diffential covers (51-21)  71%

2.The team that delivers the greater number of qb hits is (64-19) 77%

3.The team that dominates YPPT is (76-14) ats 84%

4.The team with the better RZA/RZM  (redzone attempts/redzone made) is (52-19)  73%

5.Third down success 3DP-o:3DP>0 is (56-27)  67%

Sample size 6 weeks, throw away or follow ;-)

I will list these early days plays for shits and giggles soon...............................gl

Throwing these queries at killersports.com.This list IS NOT my plays,just an experiment in current form for the league!

ALL away candidates..I like that

1. BALT (4 hits)

2. LAC (3 hits)

3. CINC, PHIL, LV, KC  (2 hits)

4. SEA, TENN, HOUS, MIA, CAR, NYJ,   ( 1 hit)

Interested in ATS for these 12 choices and how the multiple teams do.

At least Miami showed up as they are my anchor teaser team. This experiment could make the regression/teaser even stronger.

Good Luck !!

Looks like we have an additional tool in our quiver.  ;-)

The multi hit candidates went 5-1,very pleased, will continue this current form model in the near future.

The second week of this current form model that went (5-1) last week shows these teams with multiple hits.

!. BALT -9.5

2. BUFF -3

3. KC -9.5

4. MINN -3

5. GB -4.5

6. NYJ -6.5

Being a DOG and UNDER bettor, this list of favorites looks like a bankroll destroyer, we will see going forward.

You will do better fading in-season trends and  playing a bottom 5 team in any category as a dog if that team is off a loss, and fading a top five team off a win if they are the favorite in Sunday day games.  Best to wait six games before starting your fade.

Monday night especially, and to a lesser extent Thursday night games, in-season trends tend to play out as the trend would say they should.

Thx Sir:

Can you share how to query.

I understand:

p:w and pp:W and ppp:W   (for 3 game ats results)

but to do the same for over or under :  p:? and pp:? and ppp:?

@jowchoo

 Great post! Good stuff, thank you. 

You're not Thailand. I've traced your internet address. You are living on my block

@jowchoo

Really,why is there a bamboo jungle right outside my house?

@jowchoo

Pressure rates and other sack predictors are at the top of what I track.

Amazingly, the team that statistically should win the sack and pressure battles are only covering at about 30%!

This is what is driving me absolutely bonkers this season.

I have always been a line of scrimmage kind of guy. Never see a LOS power rating anywhere,so I continue research this idea. Sacks, qb hits, red zone efficiency and rushing differentials properly combined should put a handicapper in good shape. Win the line of scrimmage and turnover battle and have a competent coaching staff

will get you the money.............................gl going forward

Oh yeah, jowchoo is a thai name given me by the villagers.

It means playboy....;-)

Hi there. Mr. Playboy. 

I'm here in North-East.

Have we had a chance to meet . Anyway I like some of yr system. Good luck week. 

I don't think it will get you the money....turnovers for example...those with the average turnover advantage over their opponent cover about 47.3% of the time at an average of half a turnover a game.....with an average turnover advantage of over 1 per game it becomes 46.4%,....which means in essence if you take the the much worse team in turnover margin going into the game, you'll cover 53.6% of the time.

If you delete from considering playing away dogs  you'll cover 55.5% of the time.

Query text.......tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>1 and week>6 and playoffs=0 and AD, AF, HF, HD 

This is the query text you're looking for, for totals....p:ou margin<0 and pp:ou margin<0... denotes a team has gone UNDER their two previous games.

Or, you could do............ou streak<-3.......which means a team has gone UNDER at least four games in a row, or......ou streak>2 which means a team has gone OVER at least 3 games in a row.

Again, so kind to share. You have been very quiet lately, was concerned. Thought you were zeroing in on CFL plays. Good Luck,we are going to need it

if the mental midgets steal another US election.

I'm in the jungle here in Southeast Asia too. Nothing like those 1 AM and 4 AM starting times for NFL games. At least those Europe games are on at a decent time. Great post, by the way.

I am an hour north of Khon Kaen and are now used to the odd hours but it took me a decade...haha.............................gl

Have had the best season ever in the CFL....faded the Lions almost every game the last part of the season and was on Hamilton almost every game last part as well.

"I have been seeing the field" as they say in sports

"Better to be lucky than good" is never more apropos than when betting the NFL.....

Should be a very good week in the NFL this coming week.

Moved back to Oz a couple of months ago, and am strongly considering a move to Thailand or PI when the new year eventuates.

Great research.  Thanks and good luck.

Looks like indigo is correct. This list was indeed a bankroll destroyer (1-5)

Will continue to monitor for patterns.