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Rare Post For Me As I Stay Quiet 99% of the Time

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Posted: #1
8-1 past superbowls. Only loss I have had since I was in college was when Pitt missed the cover by a field goal when the game was in Tampa against Arizona. They were lucky to even win the game... I live in Tampa and was personally at that game at Raymond James Stadium. 

My specialty is college basketball and NFL 4 game 13 point teasers. 
This year I have taken 15 4 gamers and have killed my bookie only loosing 3 of them. 

I am up around $12,700 NFL. 

I am not betting the Denver broncos because they have P. Manning. I am not betting the Denver broncos because they are the better team
I am not betting the Denver broncos because P Manning will not be stopped. 
I am not betting the Denver broncos because its a perfect end to his career and the definition of a comeback from personal and near impossible obsticles at his age never mind anyone younger.

I am betting against the Seattle Seahawks for three reasons...And people treat this Superbowl game like its the game of the year. To someone who bets on a weekly basis this is just another game. Nothing else is different handicapping wise and the biggest mistake people make is they treat this like a once a year play.....All the bullshit is irrelevent except with what happened yesterday.

1. Seattle isnt at home. They would NOT be here if it werent for their field advantages causing momentum swings and turnovers. 

2. Experience is not there. Peyton, Baily and Welker, Elway all have stories to finish. 15 years for champ B finally he has a chance to win going out. Peyton is the best leader, decision maker, play caller, teammate I have ever seen and he knows this might be his last chance. Welker some say is the reason back in '12 when he missed a catch that probably would have made them win the game. 
This is such an advantage for all the hype and attention seattle will be getting.

3. I dont even want his name in my post but we all know the man that lacks integrity, admiration, respect, sportsmanship, not even the definition of a teammate never mind "greatest corner ever". He put a bullseye to the whole team with such distractions, and bad press WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND in this game. oh did I mention P Manning is the one throwing DARTS all year and his whole career. I feel bad for the TEAM, I feel bad he acts like that and has no respect for the game, fans, as well as his teammates as well as competitors. Doesnt help a player might have a career ending injury, call was wrong and FANS are throwing food at him. Nothing about any of this is good for young fans and reputations thats people care about more than stats longevity wise. This does nothing except make the public and motivation sky rocket for players I just mentioned up there who will prevail....Do you realize one corner can be taken completely out of the game with the way denver is set up? Its actually funny Peyton hears abs nothing and will devolop a strategy by tonight at midnight. Than focus on the rest of the important peices...This cornerback will mean nothing for this "big game" literally nothing. Its not ray lewis, its not, a quarter back, its not a running back its a cornerback who plays on one side of the field guarding 1 player. thats it! 

No prediction on the score...but do not over look this game. Vegas already made a BIG mistake +2 with the line already at -3 in some books. When have you ever saw a line in 12 hours move 6 points with no injuries or weather predictions....I stand by the Denver Broncos, P Manning, Elway, A Coach who had health issues, Del rio, welker, baily, moreno list goes on who ALL have something to prove and seal up fantastic careers. 

Denver wins this game by 10 possibly more...My money not my heart is on denver broncos at a pick for 10,200K 

I am not even remotely worried about it whatsover. As last year as I placed baltimore plus 4.5 (bought a half) 10 mins after the line came out and this year I figured it would be -7 like in '09 and in '07. I actually thought my book made a mistake...

Take it, Bank it, Blow it...

thanks for reading guys...





 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by DolceVita12:


Do you realize one corner can be taken completely out of the game with the way denver is set up?






Does this mean I should be expecting Wes Welker to pop Sherman's knee sometime in the first half?
 
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Posted: #3

seattle also has something to prove.  poor post.  doesn't give e anything I don't already know.

betting big on superbowls is amateurish.  it's just another game

 
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Posted: #4
I can see why you don't post much.......you don't know what you're doing.
 
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Posted: #5
Great post..im not sure what will happen I see settle nasty fcukers who usually win these games. But I like your points too.
 
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Posted: #6

Your info is way off base.

Vegas is not wrong the betting public are.

History of these huge line movements almost always favor the book, I track these for years.

Experience does not win in SB's and rarely covers, let's add up the facts.......................

Brady in his 1st SB VS Warner and the SB champ Rams of just 2 years earlier, 1st time team and QB wins. 

Jake Delhome and the 1st timer Panthers VS SB winning Pats just 2 years earlier, Panthers cover.

Mcnabb and the 1st time eagles VS Brady and the defending SB Champs and 2 time champs, 1st time team covers.

Eli and the 1st time Gaints VS the 3 time SB winners, 1st time team wins and covers.

Zona a 1st time team VS Pitt a SB winners just 3 years earlier, 1st time team covers.

Brees and the Saints 1st time SB team VS Manning and Colts SB champs just 3 years earlier, 1st time team wins and covers.

Rodgers and 1st time Packers VS 2 time SB winners Big Ben and Pitt , 1st time team wins and covers.

Yea, go ahead and back the experienced team, you get exactly what you deserve.

 
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Posted: #7
u r betting  a false favorite.....the broncos would cover if they were getting 3+....so m.l  seattle here is best bet.
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #8
tell you whats funny I'm in Ft Lauderdale and just 5 min ago came home from eating out at a restaurant La Dolce Vita...agree with your den pick
 
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Posted: #9

Now I see why You don't post  / your argument is flawed right from point 1 .the home thing .is a rookie point you can say that Denver was at home and reason why they won yesterday Or  Pete carrol is coming back to where he got started  .Not for nothing but 6 minutes to go the Broncos had to hit a long field goal not to have the Pats with in a score .As bad as the Pats were all day they never were put away till the end . Seattle 2nd half yesterday was maybe the best half of football all year . with this game if your handicapping it objectively which is obvious you aren't .Seattle D took away   Crabtree ,Davis Gore  they left Bouldin 1 on  to beat them . Kap one of the quickest  QBs in the league was running for his life all day . Don't see Peyton doing that now do you? True Peyton will release the ball in 3 sec soon as he plants his  foot  basically hes that good .But he cant throw the ball on those pick plays(the refs might be hip to) or down the field if his recievers are tied up at the line and playing against the  arguably best corners as a whole in the league ,Denvers D which has come on strong last 4 weeks ,still has to keep a eye on Wilsons ability to run as well as the Lynch factor .His throws are a little suspect sometimes but they always seem to be not to risky and enough to get the job done . For me Im on Seattle , the media circus for Denver is perfect  .The late rookie money from the casual bettors makes up a lot of the football pool I think wait on Seahawks the media will have Denver between 4 and 5 .  Take the best team with the best odds  They have a great shot on the upset ,or whats perceived to be

 
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Posted: #10
Dude if your saying Sherman has no respect for the game, fans and teammates you might be the biggest Fing idiot on this site and that says a lot because there is a ton of them.  Everything you said in #3 is 100% false.  Play Denver if you'd like but don't mis label a guy just cause you can't handle someone speaking truth and getting excited.  Sherman has more class and brains then you'll ever have homeboy. You done pissed me off my man even more then the retard yellow mouse.  Your a idiot! Plain and simple.  Please stay quiet 100% of the time.  You are a clueless human being. 
 
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Posted: #11
Distracting .... Lmao.  Do you mean motivating?  Unreal.  
 
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Posted: #12
Turn over ratio

Seattle +20 
Den Even

Manning will have to get rid of the ball quickly on every attempt, which will shorten up his yards and cause turnovers, exactly what Seattle wants.  Manning will be hurried and sack all game. Then look at the injuries, Den is banged up. Seattle is healthy and Harvin may be back. 
 
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Posted: #13
So about 20 kernels of popcorn falling from stand on a player is gonna motivate the Broncos more. The reasons you're not betting make more sense than why you claim you are. Whats your take on the weather. Maybe it warms up but next weeks temps look to be below 10* at night in Meadowlands.
 
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Posted: #14
Manning has been getting rid of the ball very quick.  Most have his throws have been underneath.
 
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Posted: #15
This is a forum. Calling people idiots and morons is exactly why I dont post. No one wins..haha. its winning, numbers and records that shut all you up and thats not the point of the post. All that matters is my record, why I am 90% past 10 years in superbowls and what I did this year in nfl. I love how most of you probably do not bet to win, you bet to feel the losses and you dont even know it..To be up over 12K by betting once or twice a week is better than any professional handicapper and I am not a professional at all, but my record is better than most on demarcos sites, covers, balfe, feist, most online cappers actually... Go back and look at all the public nonsense and political issues during all these superbowls...the only person that wins superbowls with unreal winning is brandon lang. That statement is JUST his superbowl plays btw..wish everyone the best though no matter what. I think yall will be laughing come sunday night though...saying what was i thinking? backing Wilson and not peyton manning the best quarter back ever or next too depending on your buyest feelings.... just my opinion. 

It doesnt matter what seattle does, or what they have done, he can get rid of ball fast if he wants to, has one of the fast drops in the history of the nfl with pa fake shotgun, can drop 8 yards before anyone even thinks about going past the line, half his audibles arent even audibles...they pay so much attention to his theatrics half the time the play is exactly the same...its actually genuis. he holds up linebackers and safeties for his recievers to get open...list goes on an on why he simply will not be stopped. Of course give credit to the seattle defense but again it does not matter...irrelivant, also stop talking about regular season. broncos defense played well enough in the playoffs and probably better next sunday. all season they were horrific but NONE of that matters. almost like an opportunity cost what you would have gave up and what would have happened all year.... It does not matter in real time, specially win or go home situations. 

ALL thats being talked about is dirsrespect, ignorance, lack of leadership, the nfl, teammates do not tell me none of this matters in a two week prep. All this press and social media. 

Every great young player whos caught up in media, commercials, attention now a days ends up no where fast in the nfl. Cant turn on tv or your computer without irrelivant info. Meanwhile peyton is locked in a room studying, inventing, two steps ahead of their defense...Every person (us) including seattle defense is caught up in all of it all distractions for at least another 5-7 days..

Breaking news. "that cornerback" is mouth and face of the superbowl in every paper around the country. target = darts thrown.


 
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Posted: #16
"Every great young player whos caught up in media, commercials, attention now a days ends up no where fast in the nfl"

Seattle already took care of this "qb" you're talking about a couple days ago and they'll take care of papa johns in a couple weeks.

I'm sure manning is required by league to do roughly the same amount of press as Wilson.. What do u think RW is doing on his free time?
 
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Posted: #17
so you're betting against sheman? sherman was just pumped up.  he is not a stupid man or an animal, people are just mad bc he beat the niners and called out crabtree

bet against wilson instead.  i can just picture him running around, taking forever to find an open receiver.  that will not work, have to get rid of the ball quickly

same bet, same result

or bet on the broncos.  broncos just too many sophisticated plays, too many recievers to cover with such an accurate QB
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by DolceVita12:

 
 Vegas already made a BIG mistake +2 with the line already at -3 in some books. When have you ever saw a line in 12 hours move 6 points with no injuries or weather predictions...






What line are you stating has moved 6 points???

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by DolceVita12:

This is a forum. Calling people idiots and morons is exactly why I dont post.

....wish everyone the best though no matter what. I think yall will be laughing come sunday night though...saying what was i thinking? backing Wilson and not peyton manning the best quarter back ever or next too depending on your buyest feelings.... just my opinion. 

....It doesnt matter what seattle does, or what they have done, he can get rid of ball fast if he wants to, has one of the fast drops in the history of the nfl with pa fake shotgun, can drop 8 yards before anyone even thinks about going past the line, half his audibles arent even audibles...they pay so much attention to his theatrics half the time the play is exactly the same...its actually genuis. he holds up linebackers and safeties for his recievers to get open...list goes on an on why he simply will not be stopped. Of course give credit to the seattle defense but again it does not matter...irrelivant, also stop talking about regular season. broncos defense played well enough in the playoffs and probably better next sunday.

....ALL thats being talked about is dirsrespect, ignorance, lack of leadership, the nfl, teammates do not tell me none of this matters in a two week prep.



Ain't that the truth..

Good luck on SB
 
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Posted: #20
It's hard for me to believe that the books made a four point mistake on this line when it opened. I agree with alot of your points about seattles inexperience but i sure as heck don't agree that the bookmakers made a 4 point mistake and wanted 80 % of the money on denver in this one. THe books factored in weather and the public hasn't yet, but when its 14 degrees with a 25 mph wind at game time i want you to come back and tell me that peyton mannings flutterballs are going to shred this defense. THe major reason i was on denver in the afc championship was because the weather was perfect. If there's high wind then denvers in HUGE trouble in this game and i believe the line was set with this in mind (met life in february, its logical to assume there will be wind). 
 
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Posted: #21
lol So you think that Vegas made a mistake?? Vegas DOESNT make many mistakes and especilly in the Super Bowl. They set the opening line at Seattle -1 for a reason....knowing everyone and their Mother would jump all over Denver...
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by tinoker55:

lol So you think that Vegas made a mistake?? Vegas DOESNT make many mistakes and especilly in the Super Bowl. They set the opening line at Seattle -1 for a reason....knowing everyone and their Mother would jump all over Denver...

I also believe they set the line factoring in expected weather and who it favors. There's no extended weather forecast but i think you can pretty much bank on it being 25 or under at game time with at least a 15 mph wind. It could also be much worse. LIke i said the major reason i liked denver last game was because the weather was so good. If there's strong wind and elements it absolutely favors the team with shutdown corners, a better pass rush, and a better running game. 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

I can see why you don't post much.......you don't know what you're doing.
   I believe i hear your Mommy calling you Mugg.Stick to your fantasy league..........
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:


I also believe they set the line factoring in expected weather and who it favors. There's no extended weather forecast but i think you can pretty much bank on it being 25 or under at game time with at least a 15 mph wind. It could also be much worse. LIke i said the major reason i liked denver last game was because the weather was so good. If there's strong wind and elements it absolutely favors the team with shutdown corners, a better pass rush, and a better running game. 
Exactly right, many factors go into setting the line..but isnt Denver also in the cold weather and snow during the NFL season, I think so because i lived there for 1 year and remember it snowing for 2 days at times. I live in the tri state area now and today its snowing like a girl and cold. And yes it will be in the 20's on Super Bowl Sunday. So my statement about Seattle opening up as 1 pt favs stands....People will continue to pund the Broncos for the next 2 weeks..  
 
 
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Posted: #25
 Dolce
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