So, to start off, I think this matchup is solid and the oddsmakers have it just about right - I just don't see a real edge anywhere. 99% of the time, in cases like this, I take a pass. However, the wife watches 1 NFL game a year (SB) and she decided she wants a little money on it this year. So, I bet 0.25 units on KC -1. Here's my reasoning:
I trust Reid more than I do Sirianni. I think Reid does a better job of getting his team through a bye week and handling the distractions that surround the SB. I also trust his game prep and planning more than I do Sirianni.
Comparing OCs against DCs, I think KC has a slight edge. Kellen Moore is pretty good, but I'd definitely give the edge to Spagnuolo when the PHI offense is on the field. Also, Moore might be a little distracted as he just got the NO head coaching job. When KC has the ball and Reid is calling plays, I think he and Fangio are pretty evenly matched and both of them think the same way in a lot of cases.
When it comes to QB's, I trust Mahomes more than I do Hurts. Hurts is a great QB, don't get me wrong, but when push comes to shove, I like Mahomes a little better when it comes to game management, decision-making and overall ability to win the game on the last play. Also, Mahomes has so much more big game experience.
Barkley is the big variable in this matchup. I'd guess that Spagnuolo is going to concentrate on slowing him down, forcing Hurts to beat him. However, if Spags calls the wrong defensive at the wrong time (and chances are this will happen once or twice at least), Barkley will definitely make them pay. I also do have faith in Hurts' ability to identify those situations and change a play call at the line of scrimmage to get the ball in Barkley's hands.
In any expected close game, we should spend a little time looking at the kickers. I give the edge to Butker. Granted, neither him nor Elliot are that great from long range. However, from 40+ yards out, Elliot is 9-16, while Butker is 6-9. If the game is on the line and somebody has to kick a 52 yarder to win the SB, I'm trusting Butker more than Elliot.
I'm about to throw a pork butt on the smoker and I've got 10 gallons of bloody butcher corn mash that's ready to run, so my day is pretty well planned out.
GL all and here's hoping we get some good commercials this year.
on your play @bluecompass
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