Reginald's NFL Plays

-0.5 Bears 1Q

GB+3.5 FG

2-0

As forecasted: Bears came out strong defensively and managed to score early in the 1st Q, but then their offense regressed. This must be depressing for Bear fans at the game.

Additional notes and variables have been observed and recorded for both teams.

On a side note, I was lucky to shop around and find the best line just in case the Bears somehow scored that late TD.

Great job!!! 

Bills+3 (big wager)

Eagles -71H, -9.5FG (small)

Ravens-7 (med)

Rams ML (small)

Tail or Fade... GL!

*Eagles -6.5 1H, -9.5 Full Game* (small wagers)

Added:

Vikings -3.5 

Let's go... GL all!

Added:

Lions -2.5

Bucs-1

Steelers+6

*was not able to get in the Eagles 1H wager... thank goodness

Tail or fade them... GL all!

I posted the Texans@Saints o/52 in another thread.

I'll run my software for the Bucs@Panthers on Thurs. and post what my model says here before the game.

/**

Current Stats:

7-4 NFL 3-1-1 NCAAF

3-0-1 big bets; up a few thousand due to aggressive bet sizing

*The purpose of this thread is to have fun testing my predictive models, placing money where I think there's value, and stirring up discourse over specific games. I'm an older man with an engineering salary and other solid income streams; however, the statistics, data analytics and forecasting has always been a passion of mine. This applies to several investments.

I've set aside a bankroll this fall to handle a wage range of $100-$2K on sports without any wager really hurting me. I mainly follow NBA, NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF, and MLB. I'm hoping to develop predictive models for each sport (or perhaps just football right now) with solid win/loss rates (wins over wins + losses) and confidence levels. The posts here are what my predictive models tell me.

Lastly, I'm open to any constructive discourse. I'm naturally a curious learner, so I may chime into other threads and pose questions or share my thoughts, in order to define some variables.

Tail or fade... Good luck to all!

-R

Side Note: Here is my NCAAF thread:

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103371153/reginald39s-ncaaf-plays

**/

7-4 NFL YTD

After running my model several times, it's about a 55% probability for each event.

UNDER/49          54.9%

TB+7         55.8%

So my picks tonight are:

UNDER/49 -110

TB+7 -120

Tail or fade... GL tonight.

9-4 NFL YTD

  UNDER/49 -110 

  TB+7 -120

My math might mean more money.

-R

Congrats Reg 

Will love to see your Week 2 Sunday picks.  

9-4 YTD

*I was only able to study these 2 games this morning because of time (I'm currently out of town on business) and a tilt-worthy performance by the lackluster TTU Red Raiders last night.

Here are my results and my picks:

59%        o/46

58%        49ers

70%seahawks

62% o/47

*smaller sample size on this study than on the 49ers

I'm also tailing the gent from Sydney with Pats u/47.5

Good luck to everyone in the forums. May the odds always be in your favor.

-R

Reading my last post- I can see how it's confusing. Again, I am betting these independently:

1. 49ers+1

2. 49ers o/46 

3. Seahawks+3.5

4. Seahawks o/47

5. Pats u/47.5

*I'll run some studies on the afternoon & evening games during the first wave of games.

Tail or Fade... Good luck.

14-4 YTD

Thanks everyone.

Here are more results from my math:

59.3% saints+2

66% over 52.5

62.8% o/40.5

65.7% bears-2.5 *smaller sample size

I will be betting these 1 unit each. Not as hard as earlier.

Tail or fade... GL.

-R

Thanks interesting to see what your numbers has for last game on the board. Thanks!

Damn. I was not able to get my last round of wagers in because as you saw... I submitted them too late!

I was distracted watching the Texans ending. Maybe, it'll work out for me- the afternoon calcs were rushed anyway.

Don't worry jrboy500- I'll post my Sunday night calculations an hour before game time.

GL to everyone playing the afternoon games!

14-4 NFL YTD

14-4 NFL YTD

I'll be placing a wager on over 53pts tonight.

I've Eagles winning and covering about 52% of time. So I won't be betting it.

GL to all!

14-5 NFL YTD

Titans ML -125

Tail or Fade... GL!

14-6 NFL YTD

broncos+7 u/41

lions+4.5

ravens+4.5

bengals+6.5

speculations with no math backing and not wagered yet:

sea                 -4.5 u/45

buccaneers  u/48

browns +3.5

tail or fade... gl

broncos 

Yes, I'm on the Broncos.

2 straight bets: +7 and under 41 points.

My math supports the Bronco's defense to keep the difference lower and one scoring.