Regression Plays Week 1 .................... NFL 2024

Of all the teams with 12 wins or more last season, there is one team which played much better then their record according to regression indicators.

I talk about this last season, there were 2 teams that had no regression indicators, these teams however did not play much better then their records.

Most teams with 12 or more wins will show some regression. When a team doesn't show regression has been a good indicator for more success but I don't have alot of years of data.

Last season  I used this to call my 2 favorites to make and win SB, 9ers and boys and I called for both to win division with Eagles regressing back.

Both Boys and 9ers have no regression indicators again this season. Neither does KC, Ravens not bad but they did make a jump in wins by 3 which isn't alot but still not good.

The one team to actually show regression  to improve and this team Will be my favorite to make and win SB.

I went back to find a similar team to show this much improvement  potential but could not find one team. I check 7 or 8 years back so nor an overly large amount of years but that tells us just how hard it is for a team with 12 wins or more to play at such a level over their record.

My Fav ....................49ers baby !!!!!

Wishing you continued success, Claw 

@theclaw

 Any leans on tonight’s game by any chance? Thanks Claw

@theclaw what 2 games are you hoping to get at +3? Thanks 

@theclaw

 Bol this year 

............. unfortunately  I didn't check back

[Quote: Originally Posted by kidd22]@theclaw  Bol this year[/Quote

 ...... thank you

Pack, Boys

Packers +2 over Eagles --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

Would you mind sharing the name/names of the "good cappers" you follow on youtube?  

That would be awesome if you could!  

Meanwhile, I'm tailing some of your plays.  LOL  

GL on your plays & this upcoming  season @theclaw 

go gettem  claw  ... good luck this  year .

Thank you Mac. Same to you ...........

Yea I can but no time at this moment

0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

Crazy, Eagles won another close game and were outgain in total yards much like they did last year. But only by 4 yards, not much. Last year they were outgained  by over 90 yards several times and still won.

They did lose the TO battle 3-1, generally the way a team makes up for that big a loss is to outgain opp by alot of yards.

Unless of course some of TO's came at meaningless points in the game. Didn't  see it so I don't know.

Boys +2.5 over Browns --- 1.1 units

I see a good amount of love for Browns this season, historical defense  at home last year. But not repeatable these huge defensive performances  according to FO research some years ago.

And Flacco came in and didn't  miss a beat, like he was playing all-along. More of a fluke, doubt Watson can Match this, what's  he played in the past like 4 years, not many games. I think Browns regress.

And Boys with no regression  indicators, although they aren't as good on the road but I think they get it done work 1.

come to this page just for a few insights ( you need to do DD on your own) from a very select few cappers.. you one and confirmed my atlanta pick and now revieweing the chargers.. good luck 

Sunday --- 5-2 ATS, won 2.8 units

Friday--- 0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

Week 1 --- 5-3 ATS, won 1.7 units

Remember 2 plays on Chargers, we play each indicator, if a team is taken twice or 3 times we make 2 or 3 plays. 

Biggest disappointment was Falcons, Cousins was terrible. Maybe to be expected coming off that injury. Might be a good spot to fade Steelers next week, to many regression indicators against this team.

I would lean 9ers tonight. Good teams coming off a season with no regression indicators seem to be very good plays week 1.

Looking back we don't find many teams like this but starting last season we are seeing it.

Both Boys and 9ers last year, both worh ATS.

Boys this year, won ATS, we can throw KC in there this year won ATS.

9ers are the best of all these teams, they are showing good improvement in the indicators.

KC did some years ago, won ATS