Regression Plays Week 1 .................... NFL 2024

we have 3 regression methods, close wins, expected wins and year over year improvement.

We back the top 2 largest mismatchs in each method. That gives us 6 plays, if a tie occurs we have more then 6.

Expected Wins .......

Packers by 2.8 over Eagles

Vikes by 2.5 over Giants

Boys by 2.5 over Browns, we have a tie for 2cd

Close Wins ..........

Falcons by 9 over Steelers

Chargers by 5 over Raiders

Pats by 5 over Bengals, another tie for 2cd

Wins Improvement.............

Chargers by 7 over Raiders

Panthers by 7 over Saints

2 ties give us 8 plays, if a team qualifies in the top 2 in 2 methods we make 2 plays on them.

Chargers are the only team with 2 plays, 1 play on each of the other 7 teams. 

This method has rarely produced a losing record back to 2005.

Last season 3-3 ATS

2 years ago 4-2 ATS

The start of covid did produce the worst record in September 2020 of 2-4-2 ATS

The next year was 3-3-1 ATS.

If we throw out those 2 dreadful years of covid the past 5 years 2017 till now 17-11-2 ATS good for 60%

Unfortunately  I was ready to post plays a while back but didn't so I did lose some value in the lines, hopefully it won't hurt me too much.

@jowchoo

  ..........thank you

@theclaw

 Love the Chargers. Additionally, Harbaugh is undefeated in home openers as a head coach (NFL or college)

It's nice to see you posting for the regular season.

Good luck.

TC 

Falcons -3 (-120) over Steelers --- 1.1 units

Chargers -3 over Raiders --- 2.2 units (2 plays)

Panthers +4 over Saints --- 1.1 unit

Vikes -1.5 over Giants - 1.1 units

Pats +9 (-120) over Bengals --- 1.1 units

The other 2 games I'll wait out the line try to get +3.

Thankfully I got -3 with Falcons and Chargers but could of had Vikes pk and Panthers +5.

Pats I easily had +9.5 and would of bought it up to +10 as eerily crazy how many times I lost by 10 in the games I did lose ATS when you have a bad team VS a good team. I learned my lesson on this over the years.

I did buy it to +9, I could expect less seeing how I should of had 10. Lose by 10 will be a killer.

@theclaw

 Like that Panthers and Vikings plays....bol...

Wow, that's  pretty impressive. Chargers had 8 close losses, not likely repeatable to get that many again and with Harbaugh you know better coaching and more discipline  is coming.

I do see good cappers I've followed on you tube liking Panthers, a few of them. These guys are definitely  sharp...................

when a team reaches a certain level of dominance  in a method the probabilities  go up quite a bit to Win ATS.

Only 1team has done that, Falcons.

Steelers have 9 close wins out of their 10 wins last season and only 2 close loses out of their 7 losses last year.

This team does not have the QB or offense to win very big, so how will they get 9 close wins again is so unlikely, they could drop 4-6 wins right there. If not more.

Alot of love for the Texans out there. Understandable for sure with what looks like a great QB and an improved overall team.

They had 7 close wins, 3rd most last season.

Colts do have 6 so not much difference  there. Good cappers are loving the Colts though.

Interesting  trend ..............

7 teams made the jump from +15000 to under +2000 the next season. 2 won 1 playoff game each, 1 team did make championship game. No team made the SB. The remaining 5 teams all finished below .500.

Making these big leaps may not be the holy grail, with 7 close wins helps explain some of this big leap by the Texans.

They might very  well be better but finish with a worse record.

Road dogs that didn't  make the playoffs last season in week 1 hit at 60% going back many years.

Another trend I saw online.

@theclaw

 BOL this week and the season. Loaded with good info already I see 

Interesting, and there are nine this year. Five ATS wins is 55%, six ATS wins is 66%. You have to choose well even when playing a trend in this league.

Good luck Claw.  

@theclaw

 Appreciate your insights

........Yes, trends are another tool. They can support or contradict other info you might be using........

......... I just saw this, non playoff team VS playoff team.

Week 1 playing div opp 35-13 ATS for non playoff team

Home fav .... 13-5-1 ATS

Away dog .... 29-18

2 best spots