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reverse line movements...

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Posted: #76
Excellent insight. Would you think the U is a good play as well since the line has dropped despite public being on UNC?
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Will_See:

Sorry but I disagree, true sharps have already made their bets thats part of the reason why the lined moved!  The other is money of course.  Problem with reverse line movement and i myself sat in your chair before is that your betting on a bad line...the value that did exist was passed on by you the better cause your waiting for a market response.  Thus leaving you behind the curve and probably the difference of a favourable result!  When the change does happen, best option would be to find a book that has the original number.  hope this helps...Good Luck and God Bless!


You're absolutely right! Every time a line moves a point, we're putting money on the team that loses that point. 
   I guess what we are doing is chasing the money, but unless we have and "in" to let us know where the money will be going, that's the only choice we are left with. Just have to hope there's enough room when they cover, that our line is still good. Or go back to capping games based on true metrics: offense, defense, home/away records etc. That's fine, I do that as well, and I bet that way as well. But the purpose of this thread was to try  winning another way. Some people like it, others don't. I might do this for 3 weeks, I might do it for a year. Depends on whether or not I keep winning I guess. I'm no psychic, don't claim to be. Just trying to win $.

 Good points in your post though, very good points. GL
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Saltyseabass:

Excellent insight. Would you think the U is a good play as well since the line has dropped despite public being on UNC?
 

I reallt can't say since I haven't been watching the line all day. sorry man... bol
 
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Posted: #79
Yep, just keep doing what is working. It's all a learning process. Everyone has their own ideas and experiences with betting, but you have to formulate your own decisions. 11-1 run is too much fun! 
GL
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

Yep, just keep doing what is working. It's all a learning process. Everyone has their own ideas and experiences with betting, but you have to formulate your own decisions. 11-1 run is too much fun! 
GL

Thanks man... not aure how long this run will last but I'm riding it for as long as I can!
 
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Posted: #81

Hey TriniMike

any pick for sat & sunday ?

 
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Posted: #82
too early for picks...leaning towards pats and packers unders
 
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Posted: #83
Love the pats under play.  Reverse line movement on that total isn't it?
 
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Posted: #84
Just noticed, the same movement in the pack game.   
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by booski:

Love the pats under play.  Reverse line movement on that total isn't it?
    
 
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Posted: #86
Great call on the Mavs & Portland! I'll be following you boys all the way to the Super Bowl!
 
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Posted: #87
Pretty scary how this is working. Props to you Trini!! 
 
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Posted: #88
Bravo!
 
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Posted: #89
thanks exile and copag  
 
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Posted: #90

Too bad I got a little greedy last night and took the Portland Alternate spread at -2.5(+190). Almost hit....

I've enjoyed the insight and will continue to follow. BOL to all

 
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Posted: #91
that would have been a nice hit! i got greedy and took a bunch of other plays too, lost half of them, but tripled up on portland at the half
 
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Posted: #92

You are on the right track.. there is software you can download for a nominal fee which shows every single line and the movement in real time. (It shows vegas and offshore books) I've been chasing steam for many years and have been very succesful. The part that takes time is learning which line movements iare the correct sides to chase. Also, your bookie wil eventually get pissed off at you if you continue to beat the line... be prepared to get kicked out of many books. Good luck my man.

 
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Posted: #93
agreed. i don't play every game that has the reverse line move, just the ones that i think have a lot of smart money behind it. i guess getting kicked out books for winning too much is a good . i'll take that all day long... thanks for the advice. i'm still a rookie in this game, help is always appreciated
 
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Posted: #94
portland   12-1 posted picks
 
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Posted: #95

Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

agreed. i don't play every game that has the reverse line move, just the ones that i think have a lot of smart money behind it. i guess getting kicked out books for winning too much is a good . i'll take that all day long... thanks for the advice. i'm still a rookie in this game, help is always appreciated

Check out this site: https://www.sportsinsights.com/

Its free for 30 days.

 
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Posted: #96
yeah i know of them, they're the leader in reverse line plays
 
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Posted: #97
Hey Trini went 5-0 lastnight on some reverse lines. Any insight on tonight's games? Looking like Brooklyn fits the bill tonight
 
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Posted: #98
thanks stuartfl... didn't know they were free for 30 days... might sign up
 
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Posted: #99
salty... that brooklyn game did look good for a while, but the line has moved back to where it opened. but if i were to take that game when the line moved from bklyn -7.5 to bklyn -7 with 80% on bklyn, the play would have been phoenix
 
 
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Posted: #100
i like the under in the brooklyn and phoenix 193.5
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