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reverse line movements...

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Posted: #1
anyone believe in this?

All of the $ was on tex A&M, but line moved in their favor... they covered.
$ was on pitt/ ole miss over, line went down, under by half point.
$ on Texans over, line goes down... looks like under.
$ on G Bay over, line was going down even before news about Ponder being out...


 
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Posted: #2
parlayed pitt, Texans and G Bay unders... ...let's see how this plays out... $100 to win $612
 
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Posted: #3
Absolutely! Favorite angle. Check out my recent thread.
 
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Posted: #4
There may be some interest in this, but I also believe in getting a larger sample size more than two games
 
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Posted: #5
I def hear you dimndimn... I've actually been watching this for a long time and it hold true to a large extent in both football and basketball... I won't go as far as saying games are fixed, but I would say Vegas often knows something we don't.
   It's been a winning angle alot lately so I figured I'd ask around too see how many other people play this way as well.
   Unfortunately I don't have the discipline to only bet this way,;or else I'm sure I'd be up a lot more!
 
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Posted: #6
can't find that thread Magic-steam... got a link?
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

can't find that thread Magic-steam... got a link?

Well, in my write-up for today's games, I simply mentioned that angle, and part of the reason I'm both Unders today.. Nothing in depth.. I once posted a more in depth thread titled 'Reverse line movement' a few months ago.. If I was on my computer I'd post the link for ya.. Otherwise, just check my space.  One down, one to go.. GL pal
 
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Posted: #8
Thanks! 
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10
If you can tell me a sure fire definition of "where the $ is" i would consider tracking for a bit
 
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Posted: #11
I go by the trends on an app I have "scores and odds" or I xhwck out sportsbookspy.com.
if i see over 60-70% of the betting public is on the over in a game, theoretically the line should be moving up. If it's moving down, that's where the reverse line movement comes in and I would take the under. obviously it's not 100%, but overall you would def be a winner betting this way...
 
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Posted: #12
so if im following correctly.....according to sportsbook spy 60% are on  the colts +7, yet the line moved to +7.5,would that qualify?
 
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Posted: #13
yeah sort of. 60% is on the bottom of the range. i would probably put a lil something on Indy based on those #'s. but if 75% or more were on them and the line moved that way, I'd be all over it.
 
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Posted: #14
The only thing I see right now might be OKC Thunder -6.5. 80% of the public sre on them and line dropped from -7.5 to -6.5... but I would be forcing it to make that pick. ausually I like to see the lines move myself over a couple days or so. to see if the $ was always on them or if it just jumped to 80% BECAUSE the linw went to 6.5. When it was -7, was it at 50%? that I don't know this time around.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

yeah sort of. 60% is on the bottom of the range. i would probably put a lil something on Indy based on those #'s. but if 75% or more were on them and the line moved that way, I'd be all over it.


I quite sure you meant to say Balt.
 
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Posted: #16
sorry... balt
 
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Posted: #17

this idefinitely worth considering and you should also look at last minute moves-with the net-you can make plays at the last second and I saw the Over jume 4 points this week with Orl-Chi from 184 to 188 and a guy in Vegas confirmed there was several 6 figure players late on the Over-final score 190....these guys wait til the end so nothing messes with their plays...

I saw the Texans line jump to 4 at the end and how did that work out?

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

sorry... balt


I'm only able to find the percentage of plays on a team.  Where are able to find the percentage of money bet on a team?
 
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Posted: #19
whats it look like on the O/U ??? I cant find it either
 
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Posted: #20
 
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Posted: #21
i use percentage of plays.
 
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Posted: #22
o/u is pretty even... 53%/47%
 
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Posted: #23
Ding, ding, ding! OKC covered...  
 
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Posted: #24
Pistons were -9, 88% of the public on them, line is now -8.5... Not really convinced on this one until it gets to -8. We'll se what happens.
Nothing really stands out in the Seattle/ Was game...
bol all   
 
 
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Posted: #25
There was a guy on here years ago, and I forget his screen name, but he made picks solely on reverse line movements and was pretty successful with it so there seems to be merit with the system.  Sports Insights has the best resources for reverse line movements, but their system is hundreds a month so not very feasible for the recreational better.
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