Riding the Saints +775 to the Super Bowl

Super Bowl prices have reopened to start the playoffs and seeing what I think is the best team in the league 4th in odds behind the Buffalo f@ck!ng Bills has me planting my flag on the Saints.

A couple of reasons they are 4th in odds is because they don't have a bye, and it's thought that the NFC is the group of death. While the NFC looks tough, I think there is really just a Big 3 of GB, TB, and NO. If the Seahawks beat John Wolford or Goff with a broken thumb in a road playoff game then Tampa is going to Green Bay in round two and those teams two will have to beat the hell out of each other. Right off the bat NO only would have to beat one of GB or TB and GB's bye advantage is basically erased. Seattle is tough and Wilson is nails but Pete Carroll turned into a putz in the second half of the year and started running the ball way too much again. It will cost Seattle...again. Especially running into a great Saints run defense which will put them in 3rd and longs exposing their OL vs the Saints rush.

So while the road doesn't look as tough as it could be, the real reason I love the Saints is that they are just a damn good team. This is the best team they have had top to bottom. They have a Top 10 offense, defense, and special teams. They can throw, run, stop the pass, and stop the run. 

Considering they went 12-4 with what they had to deal with on offense this year is a testament to their depth. Not a SINGLE skill position player played all 16 games. They started a damn RB at QB for four games this season FFS. The RB group is deep, the receivers are deep, and the TEs are deep. They have one of the best OL in the league. There really isn't a weakness. They can spread the field every which way out of every formation with the depth they have. Bringing in Sanders as the #2 WR fills what had been a major hole that was partially holding this team back the last three years. Just pray Payton doesn't get too cute with Taysom Hill.

It is also absolutely insane that the Drew Brees-Michael Thomas automatic-first-down-telepathic-connection hooked up for just 9! passes all season. NINE. Imagine if Davante Adams or Travis Kelce caught less than 10 balls from Rodgers or Mahomes. Brees and Thomas' health is something that has to be monitored, but if they are healthy then the offense will be able to hit it's ceiling for the first time all year.

But perhaps the biggest key to the Saints is the defense. They finally have a real defense. Top 5 in pass and rush defense DVOA. And man are they deep. It all starts with the best and deepest DL in the league. This is the key as they can get pressure with just four and can constantly cycle fresh guys in who can actually play. The Packers losing Baktiari is a major loss that will show up vs the Saints if they play each other. The Saints secondary has also gone from a major weakness to a strength. The individual parts aren't the greatest but Lattimore, Janoris, Marcus Williams, CGJ, and Malcolm Jenkins play extremely well as a group. Malcolm Jenkins isn't the player he once was but I really think bringing in his leadership has stabilized this secondary big time as we haven't seen the hot-headedness and gaffs from Janoris and CGJ that we've seen in the past. 

To sum up: To me this is the deepest and most well-balanced team in the league. The factors working against them baked into why they are 4th in odds can be wiped out with one Seahawks win. Even if they end up playing Tampa and Green Bay I think they have the pieces to beat them and get to the Super Bowl.

I'm playing the +775 for half and doing a ML rollover for half. I roughly have the odds of a Bears -> Seahawks -> Packers -> Chiefs road at +950 but if they are upsets then the +775 will be the better price. Not saying going to GB in January as a dome team or trying to beat Mahomes are easy but I'll take the best team +775 to get through that road. The Saints closed around +900 or +1000 to win it all before the season and now you are getting close to the same price to win four games.

Brees goes out on top.

1 took$50 parlay saints dodgers, it pays nicely.  Good luck

only concern for me would be the Saints secondary they look decent right now but when they get exposed oh boy do they get exposed. you saw what aaron rodgers did to them earlier this year. its also the reason they been knocked out of 3 straight postseasons

Saints are a time of possession oriented team and thats what they'll need to do to keep their defense fresh and give the ball quickly back to their offense. indeed their pass rush d-line is one of the tops if not tops in the league. Saints and Bucs might be only team that has a chance to knock out green bay with their QB play and pass rush

@andarmac99

 Excellent points on NOLA...worth the odds for sure....BOL 

Bills fan here, but I love your play.

@andarmac99

Agree 100%   2 keys to win the SB in the recent years - Defense & QB. Teams that have these 2 components are: Saints, Bucs, & Bills.

Got all three early in the season at +1200 or better.  

  great write up,  on it too, think they are the most likely to win

I love how every single talking head on tv/radio and this entire forum are counting out the Chiefs.  Best QB and offense in the league.  Defense is just as good as last year.  I’m not saying the Saints or Packers won’t win, those are my 2 teams to make it to SB to play KC, just amazed how no one is giving them a shot to win it again...Bills aren’t winning the SB I’ll make that bet every day of the week, and twice on sundays 

Saints won't make it past Rams

@kcblitzkrieg

 Chiefs are last year's news.

No SB this year

@kcblitzkrieg

 Can't speak for anyone else but I'm not counting out the Chiefs. They are 23-1 in the last 24 Mahomes has started. They are stupidly good. But their price to win right now is +190. I see better value on the Saints is all. 

FWIW I expect the Chiefs to walk to the Super Bowl in the AFC.

Bills lost to a team that didn't even practice for a week . Bills always have screw the bettor games out  no where. Neither bills nor colts will reach SB. It's the perfect screw you game

I disagree. They've been playing like privileged fat cats for the last month and that kind of "we'll show up when we need to" attitude seldom has staying power. Baltimore will erase them in their 1st playoff game. 

I do like your outlook on the Saints. They have all the pieces in place most importantly adversity to win it all. 

Very happy to see you post once in a while. You're one of the good guys. 

itll be the better story for the NFL where they can cash in more $ really. KC winning superbowl again will be norm. brees retiring etc. theyll let him get a ring and go out with a bang.. same like they did with peyton manning.

Saints and Brees will have a hard time once they are on the road... I don’t see them beating the Packers at the frozen tundra... Good luck

I took both Saints and Buccs 

I have the Chiefs vs Saints Superbowl at 27-1 ..Good Luck 

Drew Brees in an outdoor stadium @ GB in the Frigid Cold...with his noodle arm...No Thanks

Brees doesn't hold that kind of favoritism with the league. Saints don't either. They got their one.

They'll lose this week or next.

one thing the saints don't have going for them is "the unseen hand"...

missed pass interference calls anyone?

I actually held this same belief, rather strongly, until about a week ago. Did a deep dive on the AFC field and I just don't like anyone enough. Baltimore "should" be the team but god dang I don't know if I can trust Lamar to make big throws in big games. We'll see, maybe I'll change my mind next week and go back to thinking they'd pull a Clippers and choke out. They have definitely built some atrocious habits that usually get you beat. Think the Super Bowl is where they get tripped up.

I got the Chiefs at +750 back in August.  $5k to win $37500.  To many weapons and they can pick up their level of play whenever they need to.  Mahomes will make the plays.  Running game will be effective.  Defense will bend a bit and not break.  They are more than capable of going on the three game win streak starting next weekend.

Andy I presume you’re laying the 10 points on Sunday vs the Bears. Correct?

I laid -9.5. Would still play -10 for smaller.

Lines are gone but I really, really love the Colts and Ravens this week. See if they get back to 7 and -3 or again just play smaller.