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SAINTS @ 49ERS FULL WRITE UP:

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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:

 been doing this long enough to recognize when someone is on the other side, and bothered by a compliation of facts supporting the opposite side..... I will be here win or lose, but no one else ever seems to come back and admit when they were wrong...strange huh?  Take care

How is pointing out that a team averaging 25.8 points per game on the road in the elements supportive of your "fact" that the Saints offense "isn't very good" on the road?  Does that make any sense?  Scoring nearly 4 TDs each time on the road? 

Thats all I'm pointing out.  It's like saying the sky is green.  If the 49ers win, I can guarantee you it won't be because of an underperforming or shut down Saints offense.

 
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Posted: #52

To boot, Saints on the road on grass:

Avg. 462 yards per game...would rank 1st in NFL over 16 games

Avg. 25.8 points per game...would rank 5th in NFL over 16 games.

You're right.  They suck balls on the road on grass.

 
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Posted: #53

Well done on the write up, but goin against you on this one KS. After all the facts, sometimes you just have to go with your gut.

Saints -4 (even)

BOL

 
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Posted: #54
 
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Posted: #55
on it too
'gl
this is such a bad spot for the Saints
 
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Posted: #56
Great write up, very informative. But highly skewed to highlight your SF lean. I would have liked to see the same statistical analysis on SF. I think they have had a fantastic season, and good for them. But i can't help but think their defensive stats are padded having played that schedule based on last year, and playing in the NFC West. I would have liked to see that defense against a top flight offense...

The ease in which NO has executed their offense the last 10 weeks is huge to me, ill be laying the chalk....NO -3.5
 
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Posted: #57
I am with the Saints backers on the ML. The Saints put up TD's and 1 score to the 2 field goal option will eventually kill the niners in this game. I just worry about the cover of 3.5 is all. If you want to go against a cold capper I am that right now as I ate it last weekend (NBA and NHL saved me from a complete crushing). Either way here is to a great football game! Thank you for the write up and also everyone else that has contributed with constructive feedback 
 
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Posted: #58
My point with the coach statement is that Harbaugh had 2 weeks to prepare his team for an offensive jugernaut (Saints or Lions) where as the saints are working on a week or preparation. Both coaches are from the top shelf and are among the best there is currently thats without a doubt.
 
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Posted: #59
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by kroep76:

Ks Good shit brotha, very useful information g/L today.
 Thanks man...
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Stifflersmom:

I gotta go against you on this one
ya gotta do what you gotta do...
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by runandgun:

The biggest part of the game and what will decide the winner is the red zone. N.O has that part of the field dominated, But San Fran brings one hell of a D and in my opinion the better coach to the table. If SF can hold N.O to a few field goals rather then the normal TD's it is going to be a close game. SF has opened up games before, and I agree they will be throwing the ball more often then norm as this may be there last game of the season. I feel it will be a 24-20 or 23-16 type game. I just cannot seem to be able to go against the Saints, But I believe my angles are shifting and by game time I may be wagering on the +4 if I can get it with the under 47.5.
true on the 'angles', another angle will be (believe it or not) the tide.  SF is very close to true sea level, higher tide will make for a softer playing surface.  I doubt the grounds keepers will allow the grass to be a smidgen shorter than NFL max allowed.... I expect many people will be surprised by this game..... I suppose we will see...
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

LMAO, Thats cause your always wrong!!!

 lol... funny thing is that you are wrong over and over...you come here chiming in, and when you are wrong you disappear and then come back on the next game as if it were your first posting...lol....wow
 
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Posted: #64
 SF 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by nflpicker14:



I always look for your write-ups capping, and appreciate the work, but your understanding of the public perception of this game is off.  Take a look around these boards (the betting public).  You listed all the reasons to take the 49ers as every other joe.  You sound like an echo of espn.


I have a few friends that manage / work in sports books on the strip, and THAT is a big part of my take on (Public play)..... and the Saints are getting pounded by the public....if I sound like other, others sound like me....oh well
 
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Posted: #66
Am I missing something????
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by BBosse22:

Am I missing something????

Sorry.... For all the 49ers and under backers... 

Do you really want to bet against the saints offense right now? This is the same team a week ago that was throwing 40 yd bombs with 3 min left in the game against detroit up 10. They are going to try to score at will. Sean Payton is the most aggressive play caller in the NFL with one of the best QBs in the NFL to back it. The saints will put up at least 28 in this game. Whether or not the 49ers can put up enough to cover the over that is on them. 

I'll take the saints all day. 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by BBosse22:


Sorry.... For all the 49ers and under backers... 

Do you really want to bet against the saints offense right now? This is the same team a week ago that was throwing 40 yd bombs with 3 min left in the game against detroit up 10. They are going to try to score at will. Sean Payton is the most aggressive play caller in the NFL with one of the best QBs in the NFL to back it. The saints will put up at least 28 in this game. Whether or not the 49ers can put up enough to cover the over that is on them. 

I'll take the saints all day. 

Guess the 49ers defense is not taken into account.

 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:

true on the 'angles', another angle will be (believe it or not) the tide.  SF is very close to true sea level, higher tide will make for a softer playing surface.  I doubt the grounds keepers will allow the grass to be a smidgen shorter than NFL max allowed.... I expect many people will be surprised by this game..... I suppose we will see...

They've yet to cut the grass from what i hear, and have been fertilizing it all week making sure it's nice and soft. 
Regardless of what the haters say ks, even if you don't win this game, anyone can see with logic that this game should have been a pick em on the road for the saints. No one is nostradamus and has a crystal ball, but the facts don't lie. This saints team is not the same on the road, which means the game should be very close, so you have to take the home dog in that case. Im sure if you're wrong youll get people that come back and cry and bitch at you, all i can say is that people that are result oriented in gambling will lose long term. Don't be result oriented. 
 
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Posted: #70

I went with under46.5 .Under24 1st half  gotta believe 49ers need to control clock and ball Obviously there not looking or ready, for a shootout with a team who avg almost 26points on the road  I believe thy want to hold  them under there avrage and try to win a 24 -21 game   I dont think there coming in to this game  saying were gonna win  a31-28 game  ,Def. got them here they win or lose today with there defen.Do I believe they win? NO They do hold Saints to under there avg but they fail to have complete game Saints win 24-17

 
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Posted: #71
Line I have is 46.5 -110   Saints 3.5 -ev   49ers+3.5-120   Starting to thin they want u to tae the 9ers   Took prop bet passing yards Brees under 330.5
 
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Posted: #72
Great stuff
 
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Posted: #73
I'm not saying SF cant win,  however, I know SF can hold them to maybe 20-24 points.  How much do I like SF O?  Huge mismatch for Saints.  On Defense, SF are great on paper.  They have to be to win.  Aren't the top 5 of the top 8 offenses all in the playoffs.  1 team from the top 8 team defenses made it to the playoffs.  

There is a clear direction in rules and commentary to take the game to its highest marketable levels which include big plays for big scores.  New Orleans is built for just that.   

BOL, Im on heavy on Saints
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:

 SAINTS @ 49ERS

There is opportunity in betting games that the public has a skewed view of.  The Saints / 49ers game is one of those games.

My contention is that the Saints are not nearly as dominant as what the public thinks they are on the road playing top ranked talent, and in open air stadiums.  They have played only one playoff team on the road in an open air stadium, and lost (GB).  Even against mediocre opponents on the road their performance dropped off significantly, and add the open air stadium factor, they get even worse. 

Overall scoring:

The Saints are behind the league leading Packers in total pts scored by only 13 pts for the season.

In the SuperDome:

·       @ home the Saints average 41.6 ppg

Saints away from the SuperDome

·       They average 27.25 pts  per game on the road.  (14.35 less pts per game than @ home)

·       In open air stadiums they average 25.8 ppg (15.8 ppg less than @ home)

·       At home, their average scoring margin is +22.6 pts

·       Away their average scoring margin is +2.75 pts (a difference of almost 20 pts per game)

·       In open air stadiums, the Saints scoring margin is +1.4 (that is against 5 teams with only 2 teams with winning records:  Tennessee and Green Bay)

 

In open air stadiums:

·       The Saints are 3-2 for a combined score of 129-122 (average score of 25.8 to 24.4)

·       The Saints have played only 1 playoff team away/open air:  Green Bay and Lost 37-42

·       They average 25.8 ppg in open air stadiums (vs Green Bay, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee.)

·       Only 1 of the Saints last 10 games were played in an open top stadium, and not counting that game; the Saints averaged 36.7 ppg, and that one game away/outdoors?  Tennessee where they hung on to win 22-17.

Vs Quality teams:

·       On the road Vs. Top 10 pass defenses, top 10 defenses, or vs top 10 pass offenses the Saints are: GB L 34-42, Jacksonville W 23-10, STL L 21-31, Atlanta  W 26-23,  2-2 with a negative combined score of  104 to 106 (ave. score of 26 to 26.5).


ALL OF MY WRITE UPS AND PLAYS ARE AT:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101229669&page=6

GL..you enjoy the game playing against Brees 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Good write up. However, I can't pick the niners. Look at their schedule. They were hardly tested.. Steelers? Sure, a good team.  But we all watched that game and Big Ben couldn't move for shit. Giants, sure, but they were playing the giants during their skid.

Everyone is so big on niners D. But they only played 2-3 good offenses the whole year. Dallas, Detroit and Giants. The rest of their schedule were some of the worst offenses in the league.


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