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SAINTS @ 49ERS FULL WRITE UP:

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by dgnerate:

i understand that KS but will Saints be like that forever? as far as playoffs record on the road go? besides, it's a very small sample size of 0-4, i have a rule when it comes to betting on anything, be it Blackjack, baccarat or sportsbetting: you aim to win 4 in a row and raising your bet each time before going minimum bet on the 5th or if you lose 4 in a row to bet max on the 5th. what it translate in this case to me is that Saints is due for the big win so im going BIG on them to snap that losing record. it's just my opinion so once again, goodluck.
 thanks for you replies.  We will just have to see how the chips fall.... GL on all your other plays my friend!  
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by cashin:

 U2 my friend!  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice writeup KS. Gun to the head would have to take the points with SF, but got it too close to call. 3-4pts either way & like the under a bit better. Got SF & the under in teasers - you're right on the $$ about NO/Brees being a different tm on the rd outdoors & now they go up against 1 of the 2/3 best that's had a week off to prepare & get healthier. Somethings gotta give - gonna be very interesting & should be a great game. GL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Aalon:

 

Kid. the Saints dominance at home has lulled you into a sense on media induced non-reality.

Here is your very own quote:

[quote]and that offense is not that good on natural grass.....in open air,  they average 25.8 pts per game

Just what are you expecting them to average in the NFL, on the road??  30 ppg?  35??  Need I remind you that this is the NFL, not college or high school.  Against Jacksonville's 6th ranked defense, in open air, on grass, they racked up 503 yards of offense. Should they have gotten 600???

 The 23 point total was due to other reason I'll let you go and fish out.  Even besides that, I'll take 23 points on the road every day of the week.

That line of reasoning that 25.8 ppg on the road is "not very good" just seems extremely out of wack.

 been doing this long enough to recognize when someone is on the other side, and bothered by a compliation of facts supporting the opposite side..... I will be here win or lose, but no one else ever seems to come back and admit when they were wrong...strange huh?  Take care
 been doing this long enough to recognize when someone is on the other side, and bothered by a compliation of facts supporting the opposite side..... I will be here win or lose, but no one else ever seems to come back and admit when they were wrong...strange huh?  Take care
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Antonius:





I'm taking the exact opposite of you.


 Saints-4 and Packers-7.5 are my top two picks, in that order. And then for under/overs I like Saints/49ers over47 and Packers/Giants over52.5. 

Texans ML. +280 is my risk pick.

 well one of us will cash a ticket tomorrow.  I like the Pack as well.... I actually think that might be the blowout of the weekend...
 
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Posted: #30

KS nice write-up and thanks for all the information! 

Regardless of outcome, nobody has given us more to consider but I would ask you to do me one small favor since you clearly are the statistic man! 

Let's dig into SF stingy defense at home and maybe even the defenses the SAINTS have faced on the road?  AVG pts allowed at home,etc????

I feel that the oddsmakers may have this game real close to the number reflecting the small line movement according to the better half coming in on the Saints so this game may be a teaser for me....SF and UNDER!

There already have been some good points or opinions made for both sides and some positive criticism here going back and forth so please keep it up gentlemen!  

Now lets shake hands cuz someobody will win!  

FUPM!

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by fupm:

KS nice write-up and thanks for all the information! 

Regardless of outcome, nobody has given us more to consider but I would ask you to do me one small favor since you clearly are the statistic man! 

Let's dig into SF stingy defense at home and maybe even the defenses the SAINTS have faced on the road?  AVG pts allowed at home,etc????

I feel that the oddsmakers may have this game real close to the number reflecting the small line movement according to the better half coming in on the Saints so this game may be a teaser for me....SF and UNDER!

There already have been some good points or opinions made for both sides and some positive criticism here going back and forth so please keep it up gentlemen!  

Now lets shake hands cuz someobody will win!  

FUPM!

Hey fump...  I understand your points made, but due to time/space I tend to break down the game from all facets, then develop my opinion.  Once I do this, I write up the end result of my opinion, and not the evolution of that opinion; to do that would take me hours and hours to write up, and it would probably consist of of 5 or 6 posts... as you probably guessed, I get very detailed in my capping, and to write all of that up would just be way to time consuming.... thanks for the suggestion though... I appreciate your doing so.  BoL 
 
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Posted: #32

Fair enough and I completely understand....I will ride the NINERS  and hopefully wont need the teaser assistance but just in case I may call the "moose" down for a backdoor score to get er' done son!

LOL

FUPM

 
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Posted: #33
Ks Good shit brotha, very useful information g/L today.
 
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Posted: #34
I gotta go against you on this one
 
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Posted: #35
Man I thought you had a good pick based on your first paragraph.  Oh well at least you will have a chance at the under.  1-1 at best today.  You really think niners score enough and then the total stays under though?  Cmon man!  You can slow Olreans down brotha but you aint shutting em down.  Then aint scored less than 20 all year and they are rolling with more momentum then we have ever witnessed.  Train coming through my friends, stand back.
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:

 been doing this long enough to recognize when someone is on the other side, and bothered by a compliation of facts supporting the opposite side..... I will be here win or lose, but no one else ever seems to come back and admit when they were wrong...strange huh?  Take care

LMAO, Thats cause your always wrong!!!

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:

@ degengambler34... thanks buddy.  the greatest opportunity is in games that the betting public sees/perceives an extreme opinion, while there is disparity going the other way.  In short, the Saints are actually  mediocre at best (yes, offensively) in open air stadiums, but the betting public sees only the high flying act that has been on display in nationally televised games.... GL 2 U 


I always look for your write-ups capping, and appreciate the work, but your understanding of the public perception of this game is off.  Take a look around these boards (the betting public).  You listed all the reasons to take the 49ers as every other joe.  You sound like an echo of espn.


 
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Posted: #38
The biggest part of the game and what will decide the winner is the red zone. N.O has that part of the field dominated, But San Fran brings one hell of a D and in my opinion the better coach to the table. If SF can hold N.O to a few field goals rather then the normal TD's it is going to be a close game. SF has opened up games before, and I agree they will be throwing the ball more often then norm as this may be there last game of the season. I feel it will be a 24-20 or 23-16 type game. I just cannot seem to be able to go against the Saints, But I believe my angles are shifting and by game time I may be wagering on the +4 if I can get it with the under 47.5.
 
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Posted: #39
Hate to rain on the parade, but this is a classic example of some excellent capping that ends up failing because sometimes you just think too much.  Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees, so to speak.

Here is the bottom line:  San Fran cannot score the amount of points it takes to beat the Saints.  The Saints will score 24 points today.  That is a high likelihood.  We have a new version of Alex Smith this year.  Well...let's see how Alex likes the playoff atmosphere.  The only chance the niners have is for Alex to hook up on some big plays this game, and I just can't see it happening.  The niners are worthy of respect.  It's not often that you see a team traveling across the country and favored in a road game.  There is a reason for this. 

The only thing that will cause me concern is if the line crosses 3 prior to gametime.  If it goes to 2.5, I probably won't play.  If it goes to 3, I might consider playing light.  If it stays at 3.5, I'm pounding Saints ML. 

For niner backers' sake, maybe Saints will take it by 3 and we both hit.  3.5 is a lot to lay at niners.  But Brees will get this win.  Mark it down.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by runandgun:

  But San Fran brings one hell of a D and in my opinion the better coach to the table.


You have absolutely nothing other than your personal whim on which to hang your opinion that SF has a better coach.  The saints have arguably the 2nd best coach in the NFL, and he has a super bowl ring IN THE WASTELAND OF NEW ORLEANS to prove it.
 
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Posted: #41
If I were to play niners, I'd buy it to 4.5.
 
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Posted: #42
In a game like this, a turnover could be all the difference needed. Special teams may come into play as well as field position will be crucial at points. It is going to be a great match up and we will be watching late into the 4th as I feel this game will never be out of reach for either side, and if SF is down even 7 near the end, you know they will be able to move the ball with 4 downs against a weak saints secondary. This spread at -3.5 or +3.5 is on the money.
 
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Posted: #43
For the record, my source has the action on Saints at about 70%, so be wary of the line dropping in a game like this.  You don't want to read too much into it, but in a major game like this, line movement is not just an arbitrary thing.  There is far to much riding on it.

Also I see that the line has now gone to -4 in some places.  Saints will get this win.  Not sure about laying points.
 
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Posted: #44

Great Write-up KS!

It's spot on if both teams play the stats!

You are correct, the 49ers run game is not that effective when playing top run defenses, the passing will loosen up the run game for the 49ers. The 49ers win need some turnovers to cover or win.

BOL!

 
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Posted: #45
well I got em at +3.5 but whatever, you are very correct in you write-up and I completely agree. Although the Saints are red hot they are not indestructable. The niners are well balanced on all 3 phases of the game and their kicking game might be what decides this game. Smith has realized what he is capable of (finally) and it is nice to see Crabtree elevate his game to what he is capable. I hope the niners can convert in the red zone but and only time will tell. Niners running backs with 400 carries for 1700 yards this year. If they follow suit to this and win Time of possession...they win the game....GL dude....and ..for your effort
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:


But Peyton has never won a road playoff game...not one, nor have the Saints in their history

Never say never....saints in a close cover (-3.5) 27-23!...GL
 
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Posted: #47
Nice Writeup KS. However this is one time I have to jump the fence. What nobody seems to factor in is adrenalin and emotion, ever wonder why the Saints are perfect at home ? They are HYPED  at home and I beleive they will be for this game. If you played any sports yourself you will know what I am talking about. Most games are just games, sure you want to win, but remember those " special " games that had that extra incenetive ? In those games you were in the " ZONE "  and you played one of the best games of your life. I don't see this in SF its just another game to them. One last point,Bree's can score once in every 4 poss. and still beat Smith's one field goal every two poss. Anyway BOL one of us is guaranteed to win 
 
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Posted: #48

Good Luck KS.  I am not on either side, but I can see an attempt by SF to slow down the game, so the under seems a decent play.  NO Run D is below average, and i see SF going ground and pound the whole game.  Who knows.

BOL to all.

 
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Posted: #49
Nice write up.   I like the same.  49ers and Under.  I also like SF  in the 1st half  getting 3
 
 
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Posted: #50
I still go with Saints.
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