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*** San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals ***

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Posted: #26
Great insight as always LC
 
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Posted: #27
ARI first 4 wins:

20-16 win vs Seahawks

Seahawks total yards: 254
Cardinals total yards: 253

20-18 win vs Patriots

Patriots total yards: 387
Cardinals total yards: 245 

27-6 win vs Eagles

Eagles total yards: 308
Cardinals total yards: 292

24-21 win vs Dolphins

Dolphins total yards: 480
Cardinals total yards: 297
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by BJaRz:

ARI first 4 wins:

20-16 win vs Seahawks

Seahawks total yards: 254
Cardinals total yards: 253

20-18 win vs Patriots

Patriots total yards: 387
Cardinals total yards: 245 

27-6 win vs Eagles

Eagles total yards: 308
Cardinals total yards: 292

24-21 win vs Dolphins

Dolphins total yards: 480
Cardinals total yards: 297


nice so 49ers will likely out rush the cardinals. looks like cards will win SU.


 
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Posted: #29
Excellent write up. 
 
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Posted: #30
LC, I think you may be onto something.  I was leaning on SF (hoped to buy it down to 6 but not avail...  and I would hesitate), but that just seems like too many points for a team that has struggled offensively (last 2 games they put up a combined 16 points...).

Still not sure if I'm going to take the points though, as tempting as it looks.  Leaning hard on the under tonight though.

BOL on your plays tonight!  
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by BJaRz:

ARI first 4 wins:

20-16 win vs Seahawks

Seahawks total yards: 254
Cardinals total yards: 253

20-18 win vs Patriots

Patriots total yards: 387
Cardinals total yards: 245 

27-6 win vs Eagles

Eagles total yards: 308
Cardinals total yards: 292

24-21 win vs Dolphins

Dolphins total yards: 480
Cardinals total yards: 297


Thanks for that. You just made a valid point that despite the Cardinals last 3 losses, there actually playing better than they were at the beginning of the season. Great stuff
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Thanks for that. You just made a valid point that despite the Cardinals last 3 losses, there actually playing better than they were at the beginning of the season. Great stuff
That's funny

GL I'll be on ARI myself
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

"How are the Cardinals going to score on the 49ers #1 ranked defense?"

That seems to be the question of the day that I keep hearing, especially thanks to how bad ARI's offense is (or isn't?). A lot of people think the offense of ARI is anemic, but it is more of their offensive line that is atrocious. The Cardinals have playmakers on offense and if their line blocks for their QB, they always seem to put up numbers. So the real question comes... will the Cardinals have time to block for Skelton, or not? The answer is yes.

The Cardinals main weakness again is their offensive line. SF, as good of a defense as they have, they are terrible at rushing the passer this year. Don't ask me why, but they only have 11 sacks in the first 8 games. SF won't be able to exploit ARI's biggest weakness therefore Skelton should have enough time in the pocket to find his receivers downfield.

Now for the run game. The 49ers just gave up 100+ yards rushing to Marshawn Lynch on 19 carries (5.0+ YPC) and 150 yards rushing to the Giants on 34 carries (4.4 YPC). If you asked me, it would seem as if this SF defense has regressed a bit.

ARI had little to no run game for the beginning of the season, but just piled up 125 rushing yards against the Vikings top ranked rushing defense so it's safe to say they won't be absolutely terrible in the run game tonight.

Now for the spot. The Cardinals are off 3 SU losses and are now playing a home divisional game on MNF for the first time in 2 years. Think that crowd won't be electric?

ARI last 3 losses:

21-14 loss to the Vikings

Vikings total yards: 209
Cardinals total yards: 356

19-16 loss to the Bills

Bills total yards: 306
Cardinals total yards: 332

17-3 loss to the Rams

Rams total yards: 242
Cardinals total yards: 282

The 49ers are also off an emotional beatdown to the Giants in a revenge game two weeks ago and a physical divisional home game against the Seahawks. Now they have to play another divisional game. Tough to play 3 big games like that in a row.

This would be a 5 unit play for me if the 49ers weren't going into their bye week next week. Road favorites going into their bye have been really good over the past 5 years and that's the only reason i'm keeping this play small.

142984497-1 10/29/12 2:54pm $220.00 $200.00 Pending 10/29/12 8:40pm  Reduced Football  244 Arizona Cardinals +7 -110* vs San Francisco 49ers 


Teams ATS--Game Prior to Bye Week This Season: 3-12 SU, 1-14 ATS

In addition, teams in this scenario on the road in the game prior to their bye week are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and road favorites in this scenario in the game prior to their bye week are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS this season.

 
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Posted: #34
 
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Posted: #35
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by FPC:

Road favorites in this scenario in the game prior to their bye week are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS this season.

So then after tonight's game, road favorites in game's prior to their bye week will be 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS this season. 

 
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Posted: #37

If you are playing the 49ers you would be right.  great insight.  What would we do without people like you?

 
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Posted: #38
NICE WRITE UP! I ON SF TONIGHT! SF "D" IS GOING TO MAKE TURN OVERS HAPPEN TONIGHT! BOL.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by HIGH ROLLER:

NICE WRITE UP! I ON SF TONIGHT! SF "D" IS GOING TO MAKE TURN OVERS HAPPEN TONIGHT! BOL.
Thats ok if thy win BUT THEY WILL NOT COVER THE LINE.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by FPC:

Teams ATS--Game Prior to Bye Week This Season: 3-12 SU, 1-14 ATS

In addition, teams in this scenario on the road in the game prior to their bye week are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and road favorites in this scenario in the game prior to their bye week are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS this season.



Just didn't feel like adding the Patriots 45-7 romp against the Rams pre-bye into your stats i'm guessing?
 
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Posted: #41
That game didnt count bud.  Both teams into the bye week PLAYING EACH OTHER cancels both teams from the trend.  Look it up.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by FPC:

That game didnt count bud.  Both teams into the bye week PLAYING EACH OTHER cancels both teams from the trend.  Look it up.


Gotcha

Either way, go Cardinals
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Just didn't feel like adding the Patriots 45-7 romp against the Rams pre-bye into your stats i'm guessing?
As I said its common sense.  if 2 teams are in a game prior to their bye week and they are playing each other the game is not entered into the trend reccord that I mentioned.  Figured that would be common sense.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Gotcha

Either way, go Cardinals
  Do you like it as a strong play now?
 
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Posted: #45

I have a final score model of SF 17-20   AZ 10-13

Fianl score 27-33

I believe the total is a great under play

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by FPC:

I have a final score model of SF 17-20   AZ 10-13

Fianl score 27-33 Thats total game points

I believe the total is a great under play

 
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Posted: #47

Thoughts league on the total?  Thanks for your hard work.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by FPC:

  Do you like it as a strong play now?


Keepin it at 2 units although I do feel pretty strong about it. GL lets get it!
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by FPC:

Thoughts league on the total?  Thanks for your hard work.



For reasons mentioned in my first post i'd have to lean towards the total or atleast ARI TT over but im stickin with my original play only
 
 
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Posted: #50

first of all put the mad dog down and learn how to spell final and if you have the final 27-33 why would your play be the under???

 

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