SDQL regression teasers WEEK 7 (123-80)

teaser addition

NYG+9.5

D and po:points>40 and tA(points)<17 and season>2017 and total>38.5 and line<22.5

82%

NE +11.5 (double play)

members seem to be befuddled( 5$ word) with my methodology, so I will try to throw some light on it.

Regression teasers have two parts as its basis. Regression,the reversing of a trend back towards it's mean and

teaser, an insurance of widening your spread in your favor for an increased price. And until recently the books undervalued

their worth and have recently clued in and raised the vig.I use 6 point two team teasers with vig from -115 to -120.

Now the data over the last 6 years shows that the line in the sand for regression is NET (+/-) 4 (ATS/OU). So, when a teams' ats or over/under record

gets out of balance to this degree (NET+/- 4) they become a anchor teaser candidate. Not ALL candidates are equal, the data shows teams running hot to the

OVER are far better candidates then those running to the under (8.3% to 22%). As for ATS (sides) the +4 (W) slightly outperforms the -4 (L) (17%-19%)

These results DO NOT include the insurance you receive from the teasers. Vegas just does not allow automatic winning bets from streaking ats imbalances.

Recency bias and over adjustments by the books imho  creates VALUE for the contrarian and the teasers lock in enough +EV for their cost.This research

confirms that the public like backing overs and favorites and I love that. Since by definition, to get a (+/- 4) you must get to week 5 before enough data comes in

therefore the first month we use SDQL and clues from Pinnacle to isolate the wagers. Pinnacle stand alone positions early in the season have been gold for

a long time and SDQL queries are just plain awesome as Vegas DOES mishandle some situational trends and it can be gleaned from creative queries.

Good Luck

WP=100 and rest>12 and line<=0 and season>2000 and total<52

(27-10) 73%

Will play for the middle

MIN +4.5

A and o:WP>50 and op:W and op:margin<=3 and WP

A and o:WP>50 and op:W and op:margin<=3 and WP

A and o:WP>50 and op:margin<=3 and WP

A and o:WP>50 and op:W and op:margin<=3 and WP

34-7..83%

teaser addition

TENN +15.5

You would think covers would address this ongoing paste malfunction so frustrating

this is the end of above query

A and o:WP>50 and op:W and op:margin<=3 and WP

day=Monday and line>-7 and line<7 and total>=42 and H and season>2016 and 41

LAC under 49.5

day=Monday and AF and season>2020 and total<50

3-19...87%

ATS play

LAC Under 43.5

BALT Under 49.5

p:HL and AF and week<8 and season>2017 and line

p:HL and AF and week<8 and season>2017 and line

90%

DEN -2.5 (double play)

NYJ -1.5

anyone have a fix for the shit copy and paste function here...incomplete data transfer????????????????

teaser addition;

PITT Under 44.5

teaser addition

NYJ +4.5

teaser addition

NYG Under 48.5

@jowchoo

 Would you use Miami at +9?

YES

When I have trouble with the pasting part, I type a few characters into the Reply box and then right click "Paste."  It almost always works when I am trying to paste a query.

thx for that

Anchor teaser came through but the satellites under performed HUGELY

teasers: 8-8-1, ATS: 3-2

YTD: 138-88  (59.7%)

What r your anchors week 8 and double play? Thx