Seahawks vs Eagles - detailed write up

I looked at every single game this week and one stood out like a sore thumb.  This might be the most confident game I've ever analyzed based on the #'s. 

Let's start off by looking at the playoff teams by turnover differential.  This historically has had a clear trend line to playoff teams and those who make a deep run which is evident by #1-7 are all playoff teams and 10 of the top 11.

#1 - Patriots

#2 - Saints

#3 - Packers

#4 - Seahawks

#5 - Vikings

#6 - Ravens

#7 - Chiefs

#9 - Titans

#10 - Bills

#11 - 49ers

#16 - Texans

#22 - Eagles

For reference, in 2018 the top 7 also all made the playoffs with the Superbowl match up #4 vs #5.  

Next - my favorite stat in football is both explosive plays and toxic differential.  Explosive plays on offense are 20+ yard gains through the air or 10+ yards on the rush and toxic differential is the delta between toxic allowed on defense vs produced on offense.

#8 overall is Seattle with a balanced attack ranking 8th in offense and 10th in passing. 

Seattle’s struggles defensively have primarily been driven by the run game as they are 30^th in the league in explosive runs allowed but 18^th in passing.  Seattle has 5 losses this year as they finished 11-5, the 5 losses came from teams ranked #9, #8, #12, #1 and #2.  Against teams that were #13 or higher, they finished 11-0.  The Eagles are 19^th in explosive plays on offense in the running game. 

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are known to have a stout defensive line that limits the run game, however they ranked 19^th in the league on defense against the run with 12% of carries going for 10+.  Seattle has the 8^th ranked offense for explosive plays with 13% of their runs going for 10+ yards.  You can say that was before injuries but that rate was even higher against the 49ers on Sunday with Homer and Lynch getting all of the carries.

Strength of Schedule.  The Seahawks finished #1 overall in strength of schedule and still managed to scrape out 11 wins with 10 of them coming within a single possession (they can win close games).  The Eagles finished at 9-7 playing the 29^th toughest schedule in the league.

From an injury standpoint, they lose Mychal Kendricks but get back Quandre Diggs and potentially Duane Brown, although Fant handled Bosa just fine last week.

The Seahawks are the better team, 7-1 on the road this season and 5-1 on natural grass.  I don’t think this is a game we sweat, give me the Seahawks -1.5 in the biggest game I’ll have ever played.

Nice writeup GL.

I’m with you . I’ve never seen A SOS gap like that . I’m also on the Texans for that reason . 

Glad there is people thinking like this..... Eagles fit the script much better

Historically home favorites haven't done very well SU in wild card weekend last 10 years... Having said that, Seattle is very good at winning close games (except week 17 when they botched a huge game at the end).  

My biggest reason for taking Seattle in this spot is that Philadelphia is coming off max effort in 4 consecutive games where they were all essentially must win type games.  Now they have to give full effort again.. how much do they physically have left in the tank? Yes, Seattle could have avoided this game by beating SF but let's be real, its hard to win twice against a really good team in the nfl and they were underdogs for that reason.  Seattle knows they can go on the road where they seem to play much better and win a game. 

Jury is still out on Carson Wentz... I get the injuries to his WR, but look who the Eagles have faced last 5 weeks.. Definetly not a Russell Wilson or Pete Carroll led team.  

L @ Miami 

W vs. NYG (barely)

W @ Washington (barely)

W vs. Dallas 

W @ NYG 

SEATTLE 24  PHILADELPHIA 17

Eagles are playing very well right now and are at home.....tread carefully with Seattle even though your write-up is very valid I do believe a team that's been coming on as of late is a better team then one that may just fall short like they did in their past home game.

I was also looking at strength of schedule. I with you. Thanks for a great write up.

Just a couple of quick notes:

1. SEA lost that game to the 49'ers by 1 inch.

2. PHI's last 4 wins were against: NYG (4-12), WAS (3-13), DAL (8-8), NYG (4-12) arguably this year's worst division in the NFL.

I am no knocking your post, just adding confidence to the SEA pick.

thx for the write up, going to go twice as heavy on the Eagles now. Seahawks have no chance

Strength of Schedule 

Seattle 25

Philadelphia 26

why is everyone not understand what strength of schedule means? It’s opposing teams winning percentage. Oakland was number 1 in SOS. 

Strength of schedule  doesn't mean crap in the parity  era. Everyone  sucks.  

That's a stupid slogan/cliche , to make you believe  any unrealistic outcome they  give you. It's not a logical reason for anything.  

its not about stats anymore i thinks.

but its all about profit for the Vegas, and Eagle would be more profitable for them if eagles win.

just my two cents 

best of lucks 

lets roll sir 

I can't get the image out of my mind of Wenz in their first meeting with Seattle looking completely pathetic. I backed the Eagles in that one...he was absolutely horrific.

He looks great against subpar teams but even if the Hawks are shells of their former healthier selves, I still prefer them over this Carson jibronie.

Wenz the wax figurine belongs in Madame Tussaud's museum in London, not on a football field.

Good luck backing this bum in his first playoff start. You will need it. 

I second that. Seattle it is. 

Have you ever noticed that no one ever responds to you? It's because you are a simpleton.

It's so obvious that you have never played a sport in your life as well and no Madden doesn't count as a sport Skippy

[/Quote] That's a stupid slogan/cliche , to make you believe  any unrealistic outcome they  give you. It's not a logical reason for anything.[/Quote]

This may be one of the dumber things I've heard on here. Not trying to insult you, it really is.  

So lets say you have team A coming in riding a 5 game winning streak and figured out some issues they were having, made the adjustments from early season struggles and they come up against team B that has a better record bc of a strong start to the season, but are now limping in w 3 losses in their last 5 games, have some key injuries and just struggling to regain their form from early season. But your saying it would be really stupid and completely illogical to give team A a longer look as to which is the right side? You wouldn't give Team A any advantage bc of the current scenario?

GL w your play