Seahawks vs Eagles - detailed write up

I looked at every single game this week and one stood out like a sore thumb.  This might be the most confident game I've ever analyzed based on the #'s. 

Let's start off by looking at the playoff teams by turnover differential.  This historically has had a clear trend line to playoff teams and those who make a deep run which is evident by #1-7 are all playoff teams and 10 of the top 11.

#1 - Patriots

#2 - Saints

#3 - Packers

#4 - Seahawks

#5 - Vikings

#6 - Ravens

#7 - Chiefs

#9 - Titans

#10 - Bills

#11 - 49ers

#16 - Texans

#22 - Eagles

For reference, in 2018 the top 7 also all made the playoffs with the Superbowl match up #4 vs #5.  

Next - my favorite stat in football is both explosive plays and toxic differential.  Explosive plays on offense are 20+ yard gains through the air or 10+ yards on the rush and toxic differential is the delta between toxic allowed on defense vs produced on offense.

#8 overall is Seattle with a balanced attack ranking 8th in offense and 10th in passing. 

Seattle’s struggles defensively have primarily been driven by the run game as they are 30^th in the league in explosive runs allowed but 18^th in passing.  Seattle has 5 losses this year as they finished 11-5, the 5 losses came from teams ranked #9, #8, #12, #1 and #2.  Against teams that were #13 or higher, they finished 11-0.  The Eagles are 19^th in explosive plays on offense in the running game. 

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are known to have a stout defensive line that limits the run game, however they ranked 19^th in the league on defense against the run with 12% of carries going for 10+.  Seattle has the 8^th ranked offense for explosive plays with 13% of their runs going for 10+ yards.  You can say that was before injuries but that rate was even higher against the 49ers on Sunday with Homer and Lynch getting all of the carries.

Strength of Schedule.  The Seahawks finished #1 overall in strength of schedule and still managed to scrape out 11 wins with 10 of them coming within a single possession (they can win close games).  The Eagles finished at 9-7 playing the 29^th toughest schedule in the league.

From an injury standpoint, they lose Mychal Kendricks but get back Quandre Diggs and potentially Duane Brown, although Fant handled Bosa just fine last week.

The Seahawks are the better team, 7-1 on the road this season and 5-1 on natural grass.  I don’t think this is a game we sweat, give me the Seahawks -1.5 in the biggest game I’ll have ever played.