I disagree.. NE - 0.5 and Sea -1 is highly probable winner. Not a guarantee, but highly probable.
Teams play all year to have home field throughout the playoffs, especially NE. That's why Brady was going nuts at San Diego game.
You see, Brady and Manning have been in this struggle all year for home field in the playoffs. After N.E. beat Denver in NE, they had to go to GB and then onto San.Diego. But they lost in GB so they had to win that S.D game ( I was all over NE in that game ).
After NE won that SD game, Denver fell apart, because Manning knew he couldn't win in NE in the cold weather.
Also, If you believe in that theory, why not play a 4 team teaser ?
Seattle + 5.5. N.E. + 6.5 Indy +19.5 GB + 20.5
But I like NE and Seattle ....a 2 game teaser. Because I think Baltimore is much better than Indy, NE came back TWICE from 14 points down. Indy beat Manning, who I think didn't really want to win that game.
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I disagree.. NE - 0.5 and Sea -1 is highly probable winner. Not a guarantee, but highly probable.
Teams play all year to have home field throughout the playoffs, especially NE. That's why Brady was going nuts at San Diego game.
You see, Brady and Manning have been in this struggle all year for home field in the playoffs. After N.E. beat Denver in NE, they had to go to GB and then onto San.Diego. But they lost in GB so they had to win that S.D game ( I was all over NE in that game ).
After NE won that SD game, Denver fell apart, because Manning knew he couldn't win in NE in the cold weather.
Also, If you believe in that theory, why not play a 4 team teaser ?
Seattle + 5.5. N.E. + 6.5 Indy +19.5 GB + 20.5
But I like NE and Seattle ....a 2 game teaser. Because I think Baltimore is much better than Indy, NE came back TWICE from 14 points down. Indy beat Manning, who I think didn't really want to win that game.
It's just never that easy , this is the squarest bet of the season how can it possible hit ?
it's not like the regular season , or the divisional round with other selections , there are only two games left and one very square teaser that everyone's on .
Knowing this and knowing that the people that come up with these lines are not setting themselves up for a massive hit, this teaser is a highly probable loser .
The fact that they didn't put one of these teams at -9 shows their confidence and don't tell me the public don't buy into any lines they put out .
They could have put a 9 out on either game and got action both ways don't fool yourself
The best betting option for Sunday the way i see it
If you go along with my theory , now looking at both these games
The Patriots seem to be in their annual Tomato Can Game with INDY they have played INDY the past few years in the Luck era and seem to have a big match up advantage
So if you believe Belichick is the genius they say he is , do they lose the Tomato Can game ? probably not
The lines makers could have made New England -9 .5 and all the people that are betting New England would have still bet this team at -9 .5
The past games have been all blow out wins and the people betting New England think the games a blowout they wouldn't have balked at a 9 or -9.5
They are keeping the Seattle -1 and New England -.05 in play for the Squares to hammer it's a set up it's the biggest sucker's bet ever
I think New England wins their annual Tomato Can Game .
If you believe that the Patriots will win and that Vegas isn't ready to load up the Brinks trucks and give the money away the best bet of the day is Green Bay +7 or 7.5 i expect Green Bay to win SU .
If by chance Seattle wins , it's telling you to load up on INDY .
You can agree or disagree but make no mistake the lines makers are not stupid and Vegas won't lose on the Biggest Bet Squarest Teasers of the Year .
I really really disagree with handicapping one game based on the result of another game.
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Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:
SEATTLE -1 NEW ENGLAND - 0.5 5 star Moose
It's just never that easy , this is the squarest bet of the season how can it possible hit ?
it's not like the regular season , or the divisional round with other selections , there are only two games left and one very square teaser that everyone's on .
Knowing this and knowing that the people that come up with these lines are not setting themselves up for a massive hit, this teaser is a highly probable loser .
The fact that they didn't put one of these teams at -9 shows their confidence and don't tell me the public don't buy into any lines they put out .
They could have put a 9 out on either game and got action both ways don't fool yourself
The best betting option for Sunday the way i see it
If you go along with my theory , now looking at both these games
The Patriots seem to be in their annual Tomato Can Game with INDY they have played INDY the past few years in the Luck era and seem to have a big match up advantage
So if you believe Belichick is the genius they say he is , do they lose the Tomato Can game ? probably not
The lines makers could have made New England -9 .5 and all the people that are betting New England would have still bet this team at -9 .5
The past games have been all blow out wins and the people betting New England think the games a blowout they wouldn't have balked at a 9 or -9.5
They are keeping the Seattle -1 and New England -.05 in play for the Squares to hammer it's a set up it's the biggest sucker's bet ever
I think New England wins their annual Tomato Can Game .
If you believe that the Patriots will win and that Vegas isn't ready to load up the Brinks trucks and give the money away the best bet of the day is Green Bay +7 or 7.5 i expect Green Bay to win SU .
If by chance Seattle wins , it's telling you to load up on INDY .
You can agree or disagree but make no mistake the lines makers are not stupid and Vegas won't lose on the Biggest Bet Squarest Teasers of the Year .
I really really disagree with handicapping one game based on the result of another game.
If Vegas is as smart as everyone says they are why didn't they make either New England - 9 or Seattle - 9 There are only two games left and one teaser that the entire planet is on Seattle -1 New England -0.5 Millions+ Millions on this one teaser If Vegas wasn't confident that one of these teams loses SU on Sunday they would have made one of these teams -9 for teaser protection .If both Seattle and New England wins Vegas takes a Gigantic hit is Vegas stupid here ? It's Something to think about for everyone that thinks a New England Seattle SB is a certainty .
I think you are over thinking it. Even at -10 each, people can and will just parlay the ML.
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Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:
If Vegas is as smart as everyone says they are why didn't they make either New England - 9 or Seattle - 9 There are only two games left and one teaser that the entire planet is on Seattle -1 New England -0.5 Millions+ Millions on this one teaser If Vegas wasn't confident that one of these teams loses SU on Sunday they would have made one of these teams -9 for teaser protection .If both Seattle and New England wins Vegas takes a Gigantic hit is Vegas stupid here ? It's Something to think about for everyone that thinks a New England Seattle SB is a certainty .
I think you are over thinking it. Even at -10 each, people can and will just parlay the ML.
I'm not saying anything is fixed either , i'm just saying the lines makers have been very sharp setting these lines for these two games Sunday so to suck everyone in with a Seattle Patriots teaser.
They know at least one loses .
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I'm not saying anything is fixed either , i'm just saying the lines makers have been very sharp setting these lines for these two games Sunday so to suck everyone in with a Seattle Patriots teaser.
Vegas does set lines based on teasers/ money lines, which is part of reason why Denver jumped to 9.5 and why some of the unethical off shores change lines for teasers. Don't keep up w such #s but vegas had to have lost on dallas Balt last week so not sure u can bet this week based on being scared of a square bet. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Convinced on Seattle but not yet on new eng.
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Vegas does set lines based on teasers/ money lines, which is part of reason why Denver jumped to 9.5 and why some of the unethical off shores change lines for teasers. Don't keep up w such #s but vegas had to have lost on dallas Balt last week so not sure u can bet this week based on being scared of a square bet. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Convinced on Seattle but not yet on new eng.
Vegas does set lines based on teasers/ money lines, which is part of reason why Denver jumped to 9.5 and why some of the unethical off shores change lines for teasers. Don't keep up w such #s but vegas had to have lost on dallas Balt last week so not sure u can bet this week based on being scared of a square bet. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Convinced on Seattle but not yet on new eng.
Of course they make lines 9 not to get murdered on teasers they make a lot of lines during the season - 9 for teaser protection .
But now there are only two games and their not doing it the New England line easily could have been 9 or 9.5 based on the last three times these teams have played
But it wasn't cause their sucking everyone in to betting the Square teaser that will certainly lose
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Quote Originally Posted by shiek:
Vegas does set lines based on teasers/ money lines, which is part of reason why Denver jumped to 9.5 and why some of the unethical off shores change lines for teasers. Don't keep up w such #s but vegas had to have lost on dallas Balt last week so not sure u can bet this week based on being scared of a square bet. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Convinced on Seattle but not yet on new eng.
Of course they make lines 9 not to get murdered on teasers they make a lot of lines during the season - 9 for teaser protection .
But now there are only two games and their not doing it the New England line easily could have been 9 or 9.5 based on the last three times these teams have played
But it wasn't cause their sucking everyone in to betting the Square teaser that will certainly lose
FYI..The lines in Vegas are made two weeks in advance. Then adjusted after the first week. .. has nothing to do with teasers. It's your imagination. Example...Here are the Super bowl odds for every combination 3 weeks in advance.
Super Bowl XLIX Odds
(Spread, Money-Line, Total)
Green Bay Packers -3 +100 -150 o54 -115 Indianapolis Colts +3 -130 +120 u54 -115
Green Bay Packers +1 -115 -110 o56 -115 New England Patriots -1 -115 -120 u56 -115
Seattle Seahawks -2½ -130 -150 o48 -110 New England Patriots +2½ +100 +120 u48 -110
NFC Superbowl Team -3 +100 -145 o50½ -110 AFC Superbowl Team +3 -120 +125 u50½ -110
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Mysticrich,
FYI..The lines in Vegas are made two weeks in advance. Then adjusted after the first week. .. has nothing to do with teasers. It's your imagination. Example...Here are the Super bowl odds for every combination 3 weeks in advance.
Super Bowl XLIX Odds
(Spread, Money-Line, Total)
Green Bay Packers -3 +100 -150 o54 -115 Indianapolis Colts +3 -130 +120 u54 -115
Green Bay Packers +1 -115 -110 o56 -115 New England Patriots -1 -115 -120 u56 -115
NE opened at 7.0 and moved down to 6.5 - that wasn't public money moving the line down.
Historically 6.5 DOGS are a money winner and 7.0 favorites come in at 52.5% which is about the break even point when laying -110. Maybe, the market is telling us something.
D and line=6.5 ATS 185-145 F and line=7.0 ATS 226-207-25
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Mysticrich:
NE opened at 7.0 and moved down to 6.5 - that wasn't public money moving the line down.
Historically 6.5 DOGS are a money winner and 7.0 favorites come in at 52.5% which is about the break even point when laying -110. Maybe, the market is telling us something.
D and line=6.5 ATS 185-145 F and line=7.0 ATS 226-207-25
NE opened at 7.0 and moved down to 6.5 - that wasn't public money moving the line down.
Historically 6.5 DOGS are a money winner and 7.0 favorites come in at 52.5% which is about the break even point when laying -110. Maybe, the market is telling us something.
D and line=6.5 ATS 185-145 F and line=7.0 ATS 226-207-25
I know the line opened at 7 and went down to 6.5
kinda strange isn't it since the patriots beat this team by 35 , 21 and last time 22 points on the road
If Vegas opened the line at 10 or 9.5 do you think it would be down to 6.5 ? I don't , the public buys into whatever the line they give, you would still have action both ways . if it opened at 10 it would be 9.5 right now
The betting public buys into whatever Vegas is selling and right now they are selling a two team teaser you should go out and mortgage your house on
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Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:
Mysticrich:
NE opened at 7.0 and moved down to 6.5 - that wasn't public money moving the line down.
Historically 6.5 DOGS are a money winner and 7.0 favorites come in at 52.5% which is about the break even point when laying -110. Maybe, the market is telling us something.
D and line=6.5 ATS 185-145 F and line=7.0 ATS 226-207-25
I know the line opened at 7 and went down to 6.5
kinda strange isn't it since the patriots beat this team by 35 , 21 and last time 22 points on the road
If Vegas opened the line at 10 or 9.5 do you think it would be down to 6.5 ? I don't , the public buys into whatever the line they give, you would still have action both ways . if it opened at 10 it would be 9.5 right now
The betting public buys into whatever Vegas is selling and right now they are selling a two team teaser you should go out and mortgage your house on
Why would you not take Packers +14 and Indy+14?? Never believe that Vegas is setting anyone up. That's ridiculous. .So these theory's never work. The Packers will not Beat the Seahawks at home unless there is a major injury to a key player on Seattle but I do believe that the Colts could very well take down Brady and Co....Highly unlikely but possible..GL
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Why would you not take Packers +14 and Indy+14?? Never believe that Vegas is setting anyone up. That's ridiculous. .So these theory's never work. The Packers will not Beat the Seahawks at home unless there is a major injury to a key player on Seattle but I do believe that the Colts could very well take down Brady and Co....Highly unlikely but possible..GL
I parlayed a bunch of ML plays of the teams playing against teams that had to lose (TB TEN and JAC) to keep their draft picks along with SEA and GB who had to win for the top seeds. They were easy calls in my opinion. Those teams HAD to lose and its easier to make sure you lose than to try to win.
I have to believe that Vegas is smart enough to know that TB was not going to win that game. But why was the ML for NO only -200? I dropped 20k to win on that alone. NO was -4, but I wasn't going to touch that. TB was not going to win that game and they were winning the whole game and outplaying the Saints the whole game until they realized they might actually win. So what happens? They threw a pick and let the Saints get a freebie TD at the end to win the game and not cover the line.
I have to assume that I wasn't the only one who dropped big money on the NO ML because that was the easiest 10k I won all year. Even though I was alittle worried TB would be stupid enough to win the game, it was over the minute it was determined that they had to lose the game to keep their no.1 pick.
So if that was so easy, why did Vegas only put NO ML at -200?
Maybe they've just got us second guessing everything now?
SEA vs NE would be the biggest payday for the books IMO. Lose the battle and pay out for the championships for a bigger payday on the super bowl? Last years was a pretty easy call as well. SEA DEN ML.
But I agree. Colts are just happy to be here and I just cant see any way the dogs win straight up here unless they pull a fast one on us. And if thats the case, then why not just fade all public plays from now on?
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Damn I was thinking the same thing too....
That teaser just seems too damn easy.
Rewind back to the last week of the season.
I parlayed a bunch of ML plays of the teams playing against teams that had to lose (TB TEN and JAC) to keep their draft picks along with SEA and GB who had to win for the top seeds. They were easy calls in my opinion. Those teams HAD to lose and its easier to make sure you lose than to try to win.
I have to believe that Vegas is smart enough to know that TB was not going to win that game. But why was the ML for NO only -200? I dropped 20k to win on that alone. NO was -4, but I wasn't going to touch that. TB was not going to win that game and they were winning the whole game and outplaying the Saints the whole game until they realized they might actually win. So what happens? They threw a pick and let the Saints get a freebie TD at the end to win the game and not cover the line.
I have to assume that I wasn't the only one who dropped big money on the NO ML because that was the easiest 10k I won all year. Even though I was alittle worried TB would be stupid enough to win the game, it was over the minute it was determined that they had to lose the game to keep their no.1 pick.
So if that was so easy, why did Vegas only put NO ML at -200?
Maybe they've just got us second guessing everything now?
SEA vs NE would be the biggest payday for the books IMO. Lose the battle and pay out for the championships for a bigger payday on the super bowl? Last years was a pretty easy call as well. SEA DEN ML.
But I agree. Colts are just happy to be here and I just cant see any way the dogs win straight up here unless they pull a fast one on us. And if thats the case, then why not just fade all public plays from now on?
kinda strange isn't it since the patriots beat this team by 35 , 21 and last time 22 points on the road
If Vegas opened the line at 10 or 9.5 do you think it would be down to 6.5 ? I don't , the public buys into whatever the line they give, you would still have action both ways . if it opened at 10 it would be 9.5 right now
The betting public buys into whatever Vegas is selling and right now they are selling a two team teaser you should go out and mortgage your house on
you are thinking way too much about past games. We are in the here and now. I use to work at a book full time. Believe me people don't go out and mortgage their house on damn teasers. A very small percentage of people are wagering on teasers compared to this perception you are putting off. And no vegas does not set lines based on teaser action. It's all in your head. If you think its a good play then play it but this whole made up story land fairy tale of protecting themselves from teasers couldn't be further from the truth. I like Colts to win SU because people are overestimated the pats here in this spot. The Colts will give them fits. It wont be a 20 pt loss. I am very confident in this fact so that's why im rolling that way./
BOL to you
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Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:
I know the line opened at 7 and went down to 6.5
kinda strange isn't it since the patriots beat this team by 35 , 21 and last time 22 points on the road
If Vegas opened the line at 10 or 9.5 do you think it would be down to 6.5 ? I don't , the public buys into whatever the line they give, you would still have action both ways . if it opened at 10 it would be 9.5 right now
The betting public buys into whatever Vegas is selling and right now they are selling a two team teaser you should go out and mortgage your house on
you are thinking way too much about past games. We are in the here and now. I use to work at a book full time. Believe me people don't go out and mortgage their house on damn teasers. A very small percentage of people are wagering on teasers compared to this perception you are putting off. And no vegas does not set lines based on teaser action. It's all in your head. If you think its a good play then play it but this whole made up story land fairy tale of protecting themselves from teasers couldn't be further from the truth. I like Colts to win SU because people are overestimated the pats here in this spot. The Colts will give them fits. It wont be a 20 pt loss. I am very confident in this fact so that's why im rolling that way./
kinda strange isn't it since the patriots beat this team by 35 , 21 and last time 22 points on the road
If Vegas opened the line at 10 or 9.5 do you think it would be down to 6.5 ? I don't , the public buys into whatever the line they give, you would still have action both ways . if it opened at 10 it would be 9.5 right now
The betting public buys into whatever Vegas is selling and right now they are selling a two team teaser you should go out and mortgage your house on
you are thinking way too much about past games. We are in the here and now. I use to work at a book full time. Believe me people don't go out and mortgage their house on damn teasers. A very small percentage of people are wagering on teasers compared to this perception you are putting off. And no vegas does not set lines based on teaser action. It's all in your head. If you think its a good play then play it but this whole made up story land fairy tale of protecting themselves from teasers couldn't be further from the truth. I like Colts to win SU because people are overestimated the pats here in this spot. The Colts will give them fits. It wont be a 20 pt loss. I am very confident in this fact so that's why im rolling that way./
BOL to you
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Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:
I know the line opened at 7 and went down to 6.5
kinda strange isn't it since the patriots beat this team by 35 , 21 and last time 22 points on the road
If Vegas opened the line at 10 or 9.5 do you think it would be down to 6.5 ? I don't , the public buys into whatever the line they give, you would still have action both ways . if it opened at 10 it would be 9.5 right now
The betting public buys into whatever Vegas is selling and right now they are selling a two team teaser you should go out and mortgage your house on
you are thinking way too much about past games. We are in the here and now. I use to work at a book full time. Believe me people don't go out and mortgage their house on damn teasers. A very small percentage of people are wagering on teasers compared to this perception you are putting off. And no vegas does not set lines based on teaser action. It's all in your head. If you think its a good play then play it but this whole made up story land fairy tale of protecting themselves from teasers couldn't be further from the truth. I like Colts to win SU because people are overestimated the pats here in this spot. The Colts will give them fits. It wont be a 20 pt loss. I am very confident in this fact so that's why im rolling that way./
MYSTICRICH: You know what the real teaser nightmare is for the bookmaker? Not having a SEA-NEG teaser covering but having both games fall within the teaser numbers for all four teams. It's entirely possible if SEA and NEG win from anywhere between 1 to 14 points and you have a 7.0 point teaser. It's entirely possible.
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MYSTICRICH: You know what the real teaser nightmare is for the bookmaker? Not having a SEA-NEG teaser covering but having both games fall within the teaser numbers for all four teams. It's entirely possible if SEA and NEG win from anywhere between 1 to 14 points and you have a 7.0 point teaser. It's entirely possible.
I wonder what kind of day Wilson will have running the ball. In week 1 he ran 7 times for 29 yards. Green Bay sometimes has problems with the read options as the last two times they exited the playoffs when CK ripped them to shreds on the ground. Keep an eye on Wilson.
I wonder what kind of day Wilson will have running the ball. In week 1 he ran 7 times for 29 yards. Green Bay sometimes has problems with the read options as the last two times they exited the playoffs when CK ripped them to shreds on the ground. Keep an eye on Wilson.
I really really disagree with handicapping one game based on the result of another game.
I do too. In a sport that is pure and without control from Refs who make up rules as they go along similar to the sport's comissioner. This league is controlled to some degree. Bettors beware.
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Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:
I really really disagree with handicapping one game based on the result of another game.
I do too. In a sport that is pure and without control from Refs who make up rules as they go along similar to the sport's comissioner. This league is controlled to some degree. Bettors beware.
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Packers +7.5 & Colts +7 if you got hem early! 
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