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Seattle New England Vegas tells us something

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by don juan:

I disagree.. NE - 0.5 and Sea -1 is highly probable winner. Not a guarantee, but highly probable. 

Teams play all year to have home field throughout the playoffs, especially NE. That's why Brady was going nuts at San Diego game.

You see, Brady and Manning have been in this struggle all year for home field in the playoffs. After N.E. beat Denver in NE, they had to go to GB and then onto San.Diego. But they lost in GB so they had to win that S.D game ( I was all over NE in that game ). 

After NE won that SD game, Denver fell apart, because Manning knew he couldn't win in NE in the cold weather.

 

 Also, If you believe in that theory, why not play a 4 team teaser ?

Seattle + 5.5. N.E. + 6.5  Indy +19.5   GB + 20.5

But I like NE and Seattle ....a 2 game teaser. Because I think Baltimore is much better than Indy,  NE came back TWICE from 14 points down.   Indy  beat Manning, who I think didn't really want to win that game.

....             Do u really think Peyton didn't want to beat Irsay & the Colts?My guess the loss to Luck/Colts is possibly the most devastating loss he has ever had.Peyton looked distraught after the game.Ive read some things people have said about Peyton and it's just mind boggling to me.IMHO,he was hurt and unable to perform his best.Denver looked lime they had taken 2 steps back while Luck/Colts have improved tremendously.One of my largest wagers of 2014 was taking New England beating Cols that Sunday night.To say Peyton didn't want to win just couldn't be further from the truth.These are 2 tough games to play if u ask me because u just don't know how  Rodgers will perform.Yeah,I lost a HUGE Package taking that Lock favorite teaser 2 years ago when Brady played like total shz vs Ravens after a week a losing another package on Denver vs Ravens the previous week.In 25 years of sports betting a literally hovered around 30% from Louisville/Kentucky game to AFC/NFC Title gameday.You couldn't have scripted some of the losses I took.It got so bad one day I went the opposite of what I liked and went 0-6...I actually locked myself in my bedroom the losses ate me up so bad.I've always been fortunate to reduce my bets at a significant size during bad streaks.It was so bad I took a month off from making a bet.I had my book emailing me bonuses that they had never offered when I took my break....After a month off I came back fresh and just pounded them from March until around 4th of July.I'm just a rambling

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

 

you are thinking way too much about past games. We are in the here and now. I use to work at a book full time. Believe me people don't go out and mortgage their house on damn teasers. A very small percentage of people are wagering on teasers compared to this perception you are putting off. And no vegas does not set lines based on teaser action. It's all in your head. If you think its a good play then play it but this whole made up story land fairy tale of protecting themselves from teasers couldn't be further from the truth. I like Colts to win SU because people are overestimated the pats here in this spot. The Colts will give them fits. It wont be a 20 pt loss. I am very confident in this fact so that's why im rolling that way./

 

BOL to you

VV - this makes sense to me!!

MysticRich -- GB +13.5 and Indy + 12.5 is a  safer Teaser to me than the stated NE /Seattle teaser.  I would be surprised in a blowout in either game.

 

 

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

Why would the line be 9.5? The action on the Colts ml and ats would be ridiculous. 

Correct me if wrong but there are 9.5 and 10 point lines in the NFL  
 
The Patriots blew out this team by 35,  21 , and 22 points on the road  why couldn't this have been 10 explain ?   it should have been 10, there is no reason it shouldn't have been 10 

The lines makers put out a line and public accepts whatever it is , if this line opened at 10 the Pats would be -9.5 right now and they would have their teaser protection 

But they don't want teaser protection they want the public to bet the Seattle New England teaser cause they are confident at least one of these teams loses 

Remember these aren't idiots making up these lines .
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:

....             Do u really think Peyton didn't want to beat Irsay & the Colts?My guess the loss to Luck/Colts is possibly the most devastating loss he has ever had.Peyton looked distraught after the game.Ive read some things people have said about Peyton and it's just mind boggling to me.IMHO,he was hurt and unable to perform his best.Denver looked lime they had taken 2 steps back while Luck/Colts have improved tremendously.One of my largest wagers of 2014 was taking New England beating Cols that Sunday night.To say Peyton didn't want to win just couldn't be further from the truth.These are 2 tough games to play if u ask me because u just don't know how  Rodgers will perform.Yeah,I lost a HUGE Package taking that Lock favorite teaser 2 years ago when Brady played like total shz vs Ravens after a week a losing another package on Denver vs Ravens the previous week.In 25 years of sports betting a literally hovered around 30% from Louisville/Kentucky game to AFC/NFC Title gameday.You couldn't have scripted some of the losses I took.It got so bad one day I went the opposite of what I liked and went 0-6...I actually locked myself in my bedroom the losses ate me up so bad.I've always been fortunate to reduce my bets at a significant size during bad streaks.It was so bad I took a month off from making a bet.I had my book emailing me bonuses that they had never offered when I took my break....After a month off I came back fresh and just pounded them from March until around 4th of July.I'm just a rambling

 

No, wrong, the most devastating loss was against Brady this year, in his final year or years. Because he has a huge ego, obviously.  He did NOT want to go up there and lose AGAIN this week.

As evidence..when was the last time Manning scored only 13 points AT HOME ?  When ?  C'mon Man.  You need to read between the lines and see what's happening.

 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:


Correct me if wrong but there are 9.5 and 10 point lines in the NFL  
 
The Patriots blew out this team by 35,  21 , and 22 points on the road  why couldn't this have been 10 explain ?   it should have been 10, there is no reason it shouldn't have been 10 

The lines makers put out a line and public accepts whatever it is , if this line opened at 10 the Pats would be -9.5 right now and they would have their teaser protection 

But they don't want teaser protection they want the public to bet the Seattle New England teaser cause they are confident at least one of these teams loses 

Remember these aren't idiots making up these lines .

Right now wagers are basically split. Imagine what it would be at 9.5. Then you're going to get people teasing these games up to 16.5. Could see either dog winning straight up. The numbers on each game are correct. 
 
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Posted: #56
ok in the indy NE game, neither team hits like Seattle and neither team has russ wilson, so that game is a coin toss to me with luck being able to run. the other game has seattle who can hit, and wilson who wins. forget teasers, dump ur load on seattle and rack ur brain next week when its wilson luck
 
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Posted: #57
on feb 1st sorry ^^
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:


Right now wagers are basically split. Imagine what it would be at 9.5. Then you're going to get people teasing these games up to 16.5. Could see either dog winning straight up. The numbers on each game are correct. 

No the numbers are not correct ,last three times New England beats Indy 35  21 and 22 on the road   so what would  teasing and getting 16 on these games  get you ? a big fat loss 

Nobody would have blinked an eye if the New England line opened at 10   don't kid  yourself

Whatever the line the line makers come up with everybody believes its the correct line . 
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:


No the numbers are not correct ,last three times New England beats Indy 35  21 and 22 on the road   so what would  teasing and getting 16 on these games  get you ? a big fat loss 

Nobody would have blinked an eye if the New England line opened at 10   don't kid  yourself

Whatever the line the line makers come up with everybody believes its the correct line . 

If the line opened at 10 the wagers wouldn't be split. It's as simple as that. Say what you want, but people would be all over the colts at 10. You can't use past games to say the line should suggest a blow out. The Colts aren't quite a fluke team that made it this far. Indy was a 3 pt fav at home against NE. Shift homefield and you have -3 NE. Now your expecting the line to shift by a full td?  In my opinion 6-6.5 is what it should be. 
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:


If the line opened at 10 the wagers wouldn't be split. It's as simple as that. Say what you want, but people would be all over the colts at 10. You can't use past games to say the line should suggest a blow out. The Colts aren't quite a fluke team that made it this far. Indy was a 3 pt fav at home against NE. Shift homefield and you have -3 NE. Now your expecting the line to shift by a full td?  In my opinion 6-6.5 is what it should be. 


So tell me when if ever should a team be favored by  10 ?  35 ,21 and  22 on the road ?   the line should have been 10 ,  and you and ever one else would have thought the line was right 

 And the same people betting the Patriots would  still bet the Patriots . 


 
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Posted: #61
I understand how everyone and their mama will probably be on that teaser if they think SEA and NE will both win. At first glance it probably feels like theyre just baiting everyone in to bet on the favs.

On the fipside....

Why not just wait for SEA to win and then bet the house on IND ML if you feel so strongly about the books not letting both SEA and NE winning?

And obviously, if GB wins, bet the house on NE ML.
Because they couldnt possibly let "both" dogs get to the super bowl right????

They've got you all twisted in the head IMO.

If the only reason why you dont think SEA and NE will get to the super bowl is because of a teaser, and nothing football related, then just wait for the first game to end and throw your paycheck on the next game.

SEA and NE get to the super bowl.
I think both cover the 7 as well.
BOL
 
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Posted: #62
Vegas isn't worried about the rookies playing teasers ,Its far from the whole world on the Teaser u proposed anyway  Mafia 13 hit it on the head .The few dollars played on teasers  in general is not a factor ,They made the perfect line ,to get people to bite on GB and Colts ,.
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:

If Vegas is as smart as everyone says they are why didn't they make either New England  - 9 or Seattle - 9 

There are only two games left and one teaser that the entire planet is on Seattle -1 New England -0.5 

Millions+ Millions  on this one teaser 

If Vegas wasn't confident that one of these teams loses SU  on Sunday they would have made one of these teams -9 for teaser protection .

If both Seattle and New England wins Vegas takes a Gigantic hit   is Vegas stupid here ?

 It's Something to think about for everyone that thinks a New  England  Seattle SB is a certainty .

Unless you put a bundle of this. teasers for the most part pay zilch and they're basically only for players who want to enjoy a 'tease', like playing a ten-team teaser, etc. Otherwise lay down a few g's if you intend to play this one.

 
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Posted: #64
This teaser is the ONLY reason why he thinks one of the favs will lose. Because Vegas isnt stupid enough to just throw away money like that right?

On the fliside, if you really believed that. Then why not wait for SEA to win the first game and then throw your paycheck on the IND ML?

Heres another option. Why not just throw money on both GB ML (+265) and IND ML (+235) and wait for whichever one wins. Even if only one of them wins, you will not lose.

Sounds almost too easy right? Almost as easy as betting on NE + SEA teaser.........
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:

SEATTLE  -1 NEW ENGLAND  - 0.5    5 star Moose 

It's just never that easy , this is the squarest bet of the season how can it possible hit ?

it's not like the regular season , or the divisional round with other selections , there are only two games left and one very square teaser that everyone's on .

Knowing this and knowing that the people that come up with these lines are not setting themselves up for a massive hit,  this teaser is a highly probable loser .

The fact that they didn't put one of these  teams  at -9 shows their confidence and don't tell me the public don't buy into any lines they put out  .

They could have put a 9 out on either game and got action both ways don't fool yourself 

The best betting option for Sunday the way i see it 

If you go along with my theory , now looking at both these games 

The Patriots seem to be in their annual Tomato Can Game  with INDY they have played INDY the past few years in the Luck  era and seem to have a big match up advantage 

So if you believe Belichick is the genius they say he is , do they lose the Tomato Can game ? probably not 

The lines makers could have made New England -9 .5 and  all the people that are betting New England would have still bet this team at -9 .5 

The past games have been all blow out wins and the people betting New England think the games a blowout they wouldn't have balked at a  9 or -9.5 

 They are keeping the Seattle -1 and New England -.05  in play for the Squares to hammer  it's a set up  it's the biggest sucker's  bet ever 

I think New England wins their annual Tomato Can Game .

If you believe that the Patriots will win and that Vegas isn't ready to load up the Brinks trucks and give the money away  the best bet of the day is Green Bay +7  or 7.5 i expect Green Bay to win SU .

If by chance Seattle wins , it's telling you to load up on INDY .

You can agree or disagree but make no mistake the lines makers are not stupid and Vegas won't lose on the Biggest Bet Squarest Teasers of the Year .









This guy is saying that GB will win straightup but hes still taking the points (just in case)............

You bring up a valid point that many people probably are on that 2-team teaser. But I just threw back two counters to that argument. If youre so confident one of the dogs is going to win straight up because vegas isnt stupid enough to just throw money away, put one of your paychecks on GB ML and another on IND ML. At +265 and +235, you can't lose right??? Hows that for easy money?
 
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Posted: #66
Vegas makes money on the unpredictable. And you can too.
(But if you can predict garbage, I can predict you ain't reading this forum & posting winners )
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Lefty1981:



This guy is saying that GB will win straightup but hes still taking the points (just in case)............

You bring up a valid point that many people probably are on that 2-team teaser. But I just threw back two counters to that argument. If youre so confident one of the dogs is going to win straight up because vegas isnt stupid enough to just throw money away, put one of your paychecks on GB ML and another on IND ML. At +265 and +235, you can't lose right??? Hows that for easy money?


Because i don'T bet ML as a practice especially  when i can make a big  wager  on a team that  i think has a good chance to  win SU and get +7.5  , what's  + 265  really ?  that's for smaller bets 

Personally i think Green Bay is the team that wins SU  but at least one of the dogs if not both will win , i don't see Indy doing it but have seen the Patriots  choke many times in the past 

 
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Posted: #68

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Posted: 1/15/2015 2:22:25 PM
Boys did beat sea with a strong running game @ seattle, who to say packers can't do the same in sea? 

                                  the answer to this question is    Regular season .Seattle had injuries on the line  and the biggest reason why is LACY is no DEMARCO    Greenbay cant run on them and with Sherman taking away Cobb or Nelson makes them one dimentional

 .

 
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Posted: #69
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Posted: 1/15/2015 1:52:03 PM
Of the 4 teams, Seattle is a public sure lock pick & colts are lease likely to advance. 

The 1st initial instinct is Seattle & Pats SB but after peeling the Orange, I would say one dog will win SU. 

After further looking at both games, I would say both dogs are a solid solid picks. 




 Packers +7.5 & Colts +7 if you got hem early

  Just another post with no  valid reasons why the miracle happens , Seems to be the case on the whole forum .    When they start arguing what teaser to take ,you know they are not confident at all in there plays

 

 
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Posted: #70
The big question is how will Seattle adjust to finally playing their first decent team in over two months and the best QB in the league .

I think it will show  early in this game the why the hell did i lay over a TD with Seattle posts will be out there probably before half time 
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:

Real men don't use teasers


I love it!  So true! 
 
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Posted: #72
And take the Under...
 
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Posted: #73
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:



Because i don'T bet ML as a practice especially  when i can make a big  wager  on a team that  i think has a good chance to  win SU and get +7.5  , what's  + 265  really ?  that's for smaller bets 

Personally i think Green Bay is the team that wins SU  but at least one of the dogs if not both will win , i don't see Indy doing it but have seen the Patriots  choke many times in the past 


You might be right. I'm not gonna say I know the outcomes of these games. But if you're so confident on the fact that vegas wont simply wont allow SEA and NE both win based on one teaser, then why dont you just play both GB and IND ML? Thats a guaranteed winner. You cant lose! And if both dogs win straightup and you'll be in here the next day saying I told you so to everyone....

The fact that you won't throw money on the ML and youre taking the points just proves you dont have much faith in either of the dogs winning straightup. As easy as it may seem just to pick NE and SEA in the teaser, its just as easy to throw money on both dogs and waiting for one to hit. I have to believe Vegas is also not stupid enough to just allow that to happen right?

Rewind back to last year. Werent SEA and DEN both favs? I forgot what the line was for SEA but DEN was -3 I think. Both favs won last year. What happened?
 
 
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Posted: #75
Haha the whole point is coming out on top at the end of the day.
Throw $1000 on GB +265. Throw $1000 on IND +235. Based on your logic and the angle you've chosen, You're guaranteed to win atleast $1350.....
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