SF Favored On the Road... I Don't See It!

To all the people making knee jerk reactions to the near collapse by ATL in the 4th quarter and how SF dismantled GB in the second half...

Don't you think that with that HUGE monkey off their back (getting first post season win for Matty Ice, Tony G and ATL for that matter in a great while) that they are going to be much looser and confident against SF?  Three of SF's four losses were on the road.  I could easily see SF lose this game straight up let alone cover the spread.

Personally I am already on ATL +17.5 in a teaser and probably will be locking in ATL +4.5 right now.  BOL!

Also 49ers record inside a dome wasn't steller this year losing to the Vikings and Rams. I'll take a shot at the 8-1 home dog.

BOL jesron

Come on Mack... I am a HUGE FAN of your boxing analysis but to make a snide comment like this without any analysis and only an insult is uncalled for and sounds like you are more of a 49ers fan than a handicapper.

Great point CanadaCup!

those 3 road losses were to a good minnesota team, seattle and st louis...st louis was 5-1 ATS against divsional opponents...so dont throw in the "away" factor as to why u think ATL will beat sf..

you ACTUALLY thinnk atl will beat sf? ATL shouldn't have won against the seahawks..their defense wasnt stopping nobody....they got lucky with the marshawn lynch fumble and the stop on 4th and 1 in their redzone....Seattle/Lynch is better than that...ATL has no pass rush at all and i can easily see kapernick run wild like he did against GB, wouldn't even be surprised if he reached 200yd rushing lol.

its matt ryans first time in NFC championship and you think the pressure was let off after he won his first playoff game? what kind of reasoning is this!

Same reasoning as other QBs in this spot.  Remember Brad Johnson and Eli Manning both starting their career 0-2 in the post season before they got on a streak and won the Superbowl.  This game is not just about Matt Ryan.  While I do agree that there is more pressure, he is still at home and at least perhaps he is playing a little more loose regardless of the outcome given that he got his first playoff win.  We shall see.

You say lucky but does it matter how ugly a team wins they still win.  There are many teams that win ugly.  Remember this ATL team plays in the same conference as Cam Newton so yeah I know they have seen many a mobile QB (Newton, RGIII, Wilson, etc) but I have to tell you if Kaep has to run to win this game I am not sure they do so.  49ers have big playmakers in Crabtree and Davis and Kaep is going to have more success getting those two involved than trying to run against ATL.  Also note that of those QBs mentioned... they might have had success running against ATL but they lose didn't win the game.  That is what we are talking about here.

if thats the case..then tony romo should've won his 2nd playoff game after his 1st, no? it might not be the same situation but come on, did you NOT watch this game?

ATL was fortunate to cause a lynch fumble and stop seahawks on 4th and 1 in the redzone in the 1st half...but other than that..seahawks had no problem moving the ball...zach miller  pretty much had a career game....and ATL couldn't rush the passer...the only good Dlineman they got (john abraham) got injured...russel wilson NEVER flinched...

i feel like the most important thing in playoffs is DEFENSE....and ATLs defense will not have the same success with the 49ers as they did against the seahawks....and besides that, whos defense do u think is stronger? dont say ATL cuz good defenses dont let opponents catch up like that..no matter how big of a lead they have

Absolutely I watched the game.  But did you just start watching NFL football this year?  Since when have you been able to pull everything you saw in one game into the next game?  SF looked pretty damn vulnerable against the pass.  Rodgers was able to pass on SF don't you think that ATL with far superior WRs and TE can do the same thing AT HOME?  Personally I think ATL wins straight up but that is just my humble opinion.  BOL!

kapernick is definately goin to run wild....and it doesn't matter about if they have experience with mobile QBs cuz for example....1) Washington doens't have a defense to stop ATL's offense..and if RG3 didn't get hurt that game, they would've had a great chance to upset the falcons... 2) cam newton doesn't have a good enough team to keep up with the falcons...but sf is just like sea..with better receivers/te and D line

in playoffs..i just go with the hotter team...im not gonna look back to what happened in weeks 1-6...cuz they are irrelevent in the playoffs...sometimes can start bad and end hot....other teams can have games they lost where it left u scratching ur head..i just look at the overall picture...i bet seahawks +2.5 cuz i really believed they could upset falcons and i still do even after watching them lose...i knew their secondary could handle the ATLs receiving corp and that ATLs defense is weak...but unfortunate turnovers happened and ATL got away with the last second fg.....

anyway im done bickerin...we'll c come sunday....GL

julio jones and roddy white are definately better than any wr in GB, but GB's receiving corp as a whole is definately better than ATL...they have too many options...

i feel like u give home factor way too much love...its like ppl betting against seattle cuz they suck on the road...i think they won over 50% of the road games this year?? if im not mistaken

To each their own man.  That is why sports gambling is so much fun.  One person will be right and one will be wrong.  Hell if I was always right I would quit me real job and only do this but that is why it is a hobby for fun.  One might say that SEA was lucky that ATL allowed the backdoor cover after being dominated all game long.  Maybe their learned from that maybe they haven't.  But I know this... bookie make more money off of people betting with emotion and knee jerk reactions than anything.  I assure you if someone comes in here on SF and cannot even concieve of the possibility that ATL can win let alone cover the bookies got you right where they want you.  Of course not saying that is what you are saying by any means just making a point.  BOL on your play!

Umm ... I think SF blew a 28-pt lead themselves to NE in about1 quarter. Almost a bigger choke than Atl.

While I agree homefield means less in the postseason (case in point BAL) than the regular season but it is still pretty damn important.  This year the home team has won every game but two (SEA two weeks ago and BAL this week).  Also, GB utilizes more of their receivers as part of their package whereas ATL only uses two WRs, two TEs and two RBs for the most part.  Of course if I had Roddy White and Julio Jones as my two WRs I don't know if I would ever go three WR very often either (especially with Tony G and one of those three are in the slot... deadly).  BOL!

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that the next game, SF let Sea hang 42 (35 if you count the blocked FG) on them. 76 pts on the road in two games ... just saying

To get the money even on both sides, I perfectly understand the spread.  I was expecting this.

Remember, lines are not predicted margins of victory.  They are set to get the money divided as even as possible.  And they adjust as needed.

Okay the following are my plays:

UCONN +16; KANSAS -1; ATL +17.5 and BAL +22 risking 3 units to win 2 units

ATL +4.5 risking 4.4 units to win 4 units

I might add to this as the week goes on.  I definately will be adding more teasers to ATL as the opportunity arises.  BOL!