Sharps Report Week 8

OAKLAND AT BALTIMORE: The line opened at 6.5 and moved to Baltimore -7. It's sat there most of the week. The sharps are paying attention to the "bad body clock" factor I've written about this year. So, there's not much sentiment for Oakland. The fact that the Raiders went overtime last week doesn't inspire much enthusiasm either. The sharps generally like underdogs more than favorites, and don't like laying this many points with bad offenses. So, it's largely a pass for most. The sentiment I am hearing is on the home favorite because of Oakland's tough schedule spot. The total has gone up from 35 to 36. That might be a result of Baltimore going Over a low total at Miami last week.

SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS: This game is being played in London, England. The big move early was on the Under. The total opened at 48, and is now at 45. That was an odd opener. San Diego has been playing Unders anyway the past few weeks. And a game with Oakland that went Over should have been an Under. Everyone remembers the bad turf conditions when Miami played the Giants in Europe last year. Sharps couldn't believe their eyes when they saw a 48, or a 47. Things have settled at 45 for now. If rain is in the forecast, that total may go even lower. I haven't seen much action on the team side. Some guys think San Diego should be a bigger favorite over New Orleans on a neutral field with Reggie Bush out. But, the Chargers looked so bad on the road at Miami and Buffalo that it's hard to be too enthusiastic. Most of the money is happy with its position on the Under.

KANSAS CITY AT NY JETS: There's been a huge jump here on the Jets. They opened at -10.5 and are all the way up to -14 as I write this. That move came on the news that Tyler Thigpen would be starting for the Chiefs this week, and that Larry Johnson wouldn't start the game because of off-the-field misbehavior. We're talking about a team that's just been annihilated the past two games too. You don't often see the sharps lay points, particularly double digits. They had no problem laying 13 or less in this spot. The total hasn't moved. And, if the team side line keeps going up, we may see some buy back on the Chiefs by middle shooters. Winless Cincinnati just played on this field two weeks ago and kept it reasonable.

BUFFALO AT MIAMI: Another big move on the total, as this one opened at 40 and is up to 42 now. The totals guys have been doing very well this year. Miami has opened things up offensively this year, and it looks like the market prices aren't capturing that with the first numbers that go up. Buffalo opened as a 2-point favorite. I'm currently seeing -1 most everywhere. Clearly more sentiment on the Over than the Dolphins here. I'm not a totals guy myself, so I have a lot of respect for the sharps who specialize on those. They're doing well this year...and many hit a huge middle this past Monday Night in the Denver/New England game too.

TAMPA BAY AT DALLAS: Tough to read this one. Dallas opened at -1, and is now sitting near -2 at most places. I know a lot of guys who like Tampa Bay but haven't bet yet. They're hoping the public will take the line to -3 on game day. Then, the Bucs money will come in strong. There's a segment of sharps that think Tampa Bay will win this game by at least a field goal. There's a competing segment that things the number has over-adjusted to the Romo injury. For now, the Dallas money is in at -1. The Tampa Bay money is sitting on the sideline seeing what they might get over the weekend.

ATLANTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Philadelphia got the early nod here, as the opener jumped from -7.5 up to -9. You know if the sharps liked the dog they would have taken the touchdown and the hook. The fact that this line jumped to nine tells you that the sharps liked the favorite, and the sportsbooks were worried about basic strategy teasers. Philadelphia -1.5 to -2.5 would be a logical two-team teaser nominee because you cross both the 7 and the 3 on the way down. A move to -9 discourages that. I will tell you that Matt Ryan is getting a lot of respect in general from sharps. They just don't like the kid's chances on the road against a good defense. You'll recall Atlanta lost and failed to cover at Tampa Bay and Carolina. Nothing happening yet on the total. There's a chance for rain this weekend in this city (you've probably heard that regarding the World Series). We may seem some Under money come in Sunday if the weather's bad.

ST. LOUIS AT NEW ENGLAND: The total dropped here from 44 down to 42.5. The totals guys know that St. Louis is playing defense now...and that New England is generally conservative with Matt Cassel at quarterback. Monday Night's explosion came against a bad Denver defense. St. Louis is expected to be better than that now. But, you never know. They were pretty bad earlier this season. Weather may be an influence as well. The team side is sitting at New England by 7.5. This may be a game that flip flops some on Sunday...with the public hoping to take New England -7, while the sharps will probably settle on St. Louis +7.5.

ARIZONA AT CAROLINA: There's been general sentiment on the Dog and Under here. Carolina opened at -4.5 and is down to -4 or -3.5 right now. The total opened at 44, and is down to 43. I think more sharps would be on the dog, but they're concerned about the body clock. Arizona lost and didn't cover at Washington and at the NY Jets on other trips East this year. Nobody's betting Carolina right now. Some sharps are saying they're not afraid of the bad body clock off a bye week. Others are still making their decision.

WASHINGTON AT DETROIT: We're seeing the favorite and Under in this one. That's a weird combination. Usually if a favorite makes sense, it's because they're going to score a lot of points. Washington jumped from -7 to -7.5...and the fact that it didn't move right back to seven tells you nobody wants the Lions. The total fell though from 44 down to 42. The Lions have looked very bad on offense the last few weeks outside of garbage time against the poor Houston defense. This looks to be a bet on the Washington defense to me. Nobody sees Detroit scoring. You either take advantage of that by laying the points with the road favorite or taking the Under. Washington will be in a lot of teasers this weekend.

CLEVELAND AT JACKSONVILLE: Early money here on Jacksonville, as the opener of -6 has moved up to -7. Jacksonville has been inconsistent this year, or there would have been more money on the Jags. Of course, if they had been more consistent the opener may have been -8 or higher. Cleveland's in a tough schedule spot. I don't expect sharp money to come in on the Browns this weekend unless the public really hits the Jags. A lot of sharps have big bets out on Cleveland Under their regular season win total. In away, they already have Jacksonville at pick-em in that sense. The total is up a tick from 41.5 to 42.

NY GIANTS AT PITTSBURGH: The total here dropped from 44 down to 42 right out of the gate. There's a chance weather is an issue. Even if it's not, the fact that the Giants have had trouble moving the ball against Cleveland and San Francisco is a contributing factor to that move. Again, I'm not a totals guy so I have to ask around on these. I'm hearing that some sharps are expecting a big defensive performance from Pittsburgh against the defending Super Bowl champs. The early weather forecasts only strengthened that resolve. The team side line hasn't moved from Pittsburgh -2.5. The fact that it's sitting in that particular spot tells you that some sharps like the Giants. Obviously, if everyone liked Pittsburgh the number would have hit a field goal. Look for the Giants to be in a lot of teasers this weekend. Guys tend to like teasers even more in low-totaled games, or in spots where they like the Under.

SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO: We're seeing Dog and Under money so far. But, this isn't a game that's getting a lot of attention from sharps. San Francisco just changed head coaches, which could throw a monkey wrench into any projection system. The line opened San Francisco -6 and came down to -5 just on the principal that SF is too bad to be favored by six over anybody. The total fell from 42 to 40.

CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON: Here's another game few are interested in. The consensus seems to be that Houston will get money at -9 or -9.5, but Cincinnati money comes in stronger at +10. Sportsbooks may tinker a bit just to get some action on the game. Whoever the public takes will probably be wrong. They'll try to find a number that makes the public commit. Sharp sentiment would be on the Bengals at +10 if you see it.

INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE: Indianapolis is a public team, and you can expect the squares to take the points with Peyton Manning come Monday. Sharps have been going against the Colts all season, with mixed success. It worked last week at Green Bay. So, many guys jumped on the opener of Tennessee -3 at higher juice. The line moved through -3.5 all the way to -4, which suggests very strong sharp sentiment on the favorite. It will be interesting to see how the money comes in on Monday. The sharps see this as a game that Tennessee's defense will dominate. They thought that about Baltimore/Indianapolis two weeks ago though and lost. The total has fallen from 42 to 40 on the same principal. If Tennessee wins, they'll get a lead then run out the clock. The sharps have been strong against Indy all season. Last week's success gave them the courage to step out strong here.