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#1
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND -3
Play: New England Moneyline -146
first of all, denver as a public dog ranked better than the home team fits a group of teams that is 0-9 su and 1-7-1 ats this season. denver as a team is 0-4 ats when the public bets the over in the 45-60% range and 0-4 ats when the total is 46.5 or higher.
this is the first time this season that they are the underdogs but they stil remain a public team. actually they've got a bigger public support only twice this season, at kc (lost outright) and vs tampa (won by 3, didnt cover).
as for new england, they have not been a big public team this season, contrary to the common perception, and this is the lowest public support they've had all season. the closest ones came against the 49ers and the jets and they won/covered both times.the same is true for the public o/u betting in pats games. the pats lost 2/3 with the most bets on the over and they won two games with the least bets on the over.
denver's record against the pats has been calculated in this line, that's for sure. and if you think that the linemakers are not aware of the fact that denver is the only team with the winning record against bellicheck's pats, you are wrong.
most of the bettors are aware of the fact that new england is not as good as in previous years and that cassell is not great. the public also considers jay cutler one of the best qb's in the league. however, the broncos' success against the pats came with jake the snake plummer as the qb. cutler never faced new england and he brings a 7-19-1 ats record as the starter in this game. he started red hot this season with qb ratings of 137 and 139 in first two games but his qb rating was under 80 in two of his last three games. their offense is percieved as one of the best in the leagues, but that same offensive unit has been struggling, scoring 17,16 and 19 in last three games, and it wasn't only the passing game that colled off, but also their running game. and if there is one good thing about the pats since their bye week, it is their ability to run and stop the run in last two games. that will be the key for them here, and they can do it against a denver defense that allowed 155, 139 and 213 rushing yards in last 3 games(0-3 ats). denvers defense in total yards is ranked #30, and they are #32 against the pass and #25 against the run. so, i believe even the struggling pats should be able to take advantage of that, at home, in basically a must win game. only detroits and seattles passing defense have a worst defensive qb rating than denver. denver is also 7-55-3 ats in last 65 when outrushed. new englands defense is not very good either but they are stil ranked #14 overall.
denver has 10 turnovers in last 4 games, new england has 5. denver played 4 of their last 5 at home and they did not have a bye week yet. the patriots played 3 of their past 4 on the road and they've used their bye week. with a win here tonight and next week against stlouis (in new england), the pats would go to 5-2 and then they they face buffalo, who plays at miami and vs the jets next week. it is possible for new england to be even with buffalo going into that head to head matchup if they win tonight and next week. as for denver, they have a rather confortable lead against sd, they are off next week and then they face miami, cleveland, atlanta, oakland, jets, kc...rather easy schedule. sd is under .500 and they are their closest challenger and next week they go to london to face a good new orlenas team and after their bye week they'll have to face pittsburgh and indiana as two out of division opponents. much taugher cshedule than denver. denver is probably more confident about their chances than new england right now and this game means a lot more to the pats, especially at home, after the big humiliating loss last week on national tv.
new england is 15-1 after a loss (14-2 ats), denver is 6-8 su and 6-11 ats after a loss, 2-6 ats on the road. denver lost two straight against teams with less wins, 0-3 ats and 2-9 ats. denver is also 0-6 ats against teams w same number of losses.new england won 20 staright as favorite with total over 41, denver is 0-4 su, ats as underdog with total over 41.5 since last year and 2-11 su and 4-8-1 ats recently. denver is 4-13 ats in last 17 vs teams .500 or better, 1-5 su and ats on the road. new england is 15-2 su and 13-7-1 ats against teams 500 or better, not covering when bug double digit faves or underdogs only.
4-2 teams on the road before bye are are 1-5 su and 0-6 ats in last 15 years and 0-6 su and ats not favored by 7+. 4-2 teams are 0-4 su and 0-3-1 ats against 3-2 teams as long as they are not home dogs.
road teams with the same number of losses as their opponents are 0-9 su and 0-8-1 ats if they have 4 wins and 26-44-2 ats if they have 3 wins.
road teams with 3-4 wins and in weeks 2-7 with the line in the +3/-9.5 range are 1-17 su and 0-17-1 ats against teams with the same number of losses.
monday night football lines are rarely off by many points. think about it. the betters have 1 more day to get it right, and it is usually the game that has the most action on it. the books can afford to miss a total, but not the side. so, not very often you'll have a public dog on mnf and a total that has about even action on both over and under. the most recent big public dogs on monday night football were the jets +9 at san diego (lost big), minnesota at green bay in week 1 (lost big), philladelphia +6.5 at dallas, lost and covered, baltimore +9.5 last year at pittsburgh lost big, tennessee at denver last year, lost big.
and the most recent games where the public was not liking the over on monday night football also went against the public sides, and the recent examples were new orleans as public side against minnesota, pittsburghs non cover against baltimore, minnesoats loss at gb, minnesotas non cover against chicago last year, pittsburghs non cover against miami last year, new englands non cover against baltimore last year, tennessees loss as public dog in denver last week etc.
gl all...
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