The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.
Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.
But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.
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The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.
Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.
But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.
Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.
The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.
After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.
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Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.
The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.
After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.
Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.
The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.
Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.
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Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.
The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.
Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.
The Baltimore Ravens have scored in every quarter so far this season. Their 24 straight quarters with a point is tied for the longest streak to start a season in NFL history.
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The Baltimore Ravens have scored in every quarter so far this season. Their 24 straight quarters with a point is tied for the longest streak to start a season in NFL history.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is the seventh team in the Super Bowl era to get more than three points as an underdog with a 6-0 or better outright record. Each of the previous six lost outright and went 2-4 against the spread (ATS).
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Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is the seventh team in the Super Bowl era to get more than three points as an underdog with a 6-0 or better outright record. Each of the previous six lost outright and went 2-4 against the spread (ATS).
Bold prediction: Donald will tie his single-game career high of four sacks. The Rams' defense is hitting its stride and is eager to pursue Tagovailoa in his first career start. The Rams rank third in the NFL with 24 sacks this season, led by Donald's eight, so watch for them to feast on a Dolphins offense line that has a pass block win rate of 47.5% -- 30th in the league. -- Lindsey Thiry
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Bold prediction: Donald will tie his single-game career high of four sacks. The Rams' defense is hitting its stride and is eager to pursue Tagovailoa in his first career start. The Rams rank third in the NFL with 24 sacks this season, led by Donald's eight, so watch for them to feast on a Dolphins offense line that has a pass block win rate of 47.5% -- 30th in the league. -- Lindsey Thiry
RLeith35, your work is unmatched. In Post #19 and Post #20, it looks like the Colts/Lions game is involved in a noteworthy Total trend in both directions. What do you do with that information? Or am I looking at it incorrectly? Your time is appreciated.
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RLeith35, your work is unmatched. In Post #19 and Post #20, it looks like the Colts/Lions game is involved in a noteworthy Total trend in both directions. What do you do with that information? Or am I looking at it incorrectly? Your time is appreciated.
What to watch for: In three career games against the Patriots, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has completed just 48.4% of his passes, averaging just 192.6 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, Bills coach Sean McDermott is winless in six tries against Bill Belichick. Look for both men to change their fortunes Sunday. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Punters Jake Bailey (Patriots) and Corey Bojorquez (Bills) will play defining roles in determining the final outcome. Temperatures in Western New York are expected to be in the 40s, with a chance of rain and wind gusts possibly exceeding 20 mph. So ballhandling and field position will be critical. Bailey has been excellent this season -- he's the AFC leader in net punting at 47.9 yards -- while Bojorquez has shown a powerful leg when the Bills are pinned deep (a long of 72 yards). -- Mike Reiss
Stat to know: This is the Patriots' first three-game losing streak since 2002, when they lost four straight. And per Elias Sports Bureau research, this is the first time they are more than two games back in the division at any point in a season since 2000. To get back on track, they'll need a jump in performance from quarterback Cam Newton, who has a 15.3 Total QBR in his past three starts.
Injuries: Patriots | Bills
What to know for fantasy: Who gets right? The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on 5.4% of their passes faced this season (below league average and way down from their league leading rate of 2.4% last season), but Allen is coming off a game against the Jets in which he threw 43 passes without a score.
Betting nugget: This is the first time New England has been an underdog in a division game since Week 2 of the 2015 season (at Buffalo).
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What to watch for: In three career games against the Patriots, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has completed just 48.4% of his passes, averaging just 192.6 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, Bills coach Sean McDermott is winless in six tries against Bill Belichick. Look for both men to change their fortunes Sunday. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Punters Jake Bailey (Patriots) and Corey Bojorquez (Bills) will play defining roles in determining the final outcome. Temperatures in Western New York are expected to be in the 40s, with a chance of rain and wind gusts possibly exceeding 20 mph. So ballhandling and field position will be critical. Bailey has been excellent this season -- he's the AFC leader in net punting at 47.9 yards -- while Bojorquez has shown a powerful leg when the Bills are pinned deep (a long of 72 yards). -- Mike Reiss
Stat to know: This is the Patriots' first three-game losing streak since 2002, when they lost four straight. And per Elias Sports Bureau research, this is the first time they are more than two games back in the division at any point in a season since 2000. To get back on track, they'll need a jump in performance from quarterback Cam Newton, who has a 15.3 Total QBR in his past three starts.
Injuries: Patriots | Bills
What to know for fantasy: Who gets right? The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on 5.4% of their passes faced this season (below league average and way down from their league leading rate of 2.4% last season), but Allen is coming off a game against the Jets in which he threw 43 passes without a score.
Betting nugget: This is the first time New England has been an underdog in a division game since Week 2 of the 2015 season (at Buffalo).
Bold prediction: The Jets will move the ball between the 20s against the Chiefs, who are yielding a rather hefty 4.9 yards per rush, but they will take an oh-fer in the red zone. Let's call it 0-for-3. That is the Jets' Achilles' heel on offense, with a league-low 25% success rate in the red zone. So, no, there will be no stunning upset. -- Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Jets have lost all seven of their games this season by more than seven points; the 1984 Oilers are the only team since the merger to start 0-8 with all eight losses going for more than seven points. Furthermore, New York has a minus-118 point differential this season, and a 20-point loss would mark the team's worst point differential through eight games in franchise history (minus-137 in 1976).
Injuries: Jets | Chiefs
What to know for fantasy: Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill has scored more than 15.5 fantasy points in six of seven games despite not yet having a 100-yard game (and four games under 65 yards).
Betting nugget: Reigning champions are just 2-8 ATS against teams that entered with 0-6 (or worse) outright records. And they've failed to cover each of the past seven times in that spot since 1978.
Cimini's pick: Chiefs 34, Jets 10 Teicher's pick: Chiefs 30, Jets 13 FPI prediction: KC, 94.1% (by an average of 21.2 points)
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Bold prediction: The Jets will move the ball between the 20s against the Chiefs, who are yielding a rather hefty 4.9 yards per rush, but they will take an oh-fer in the red zone. Let's call it 0-for-3. That is the Jets' Achilles' heel on offense, with a league-low 25% success rate in the red zone. So, no, there will be no stunning upset. -- Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Jets have lost all seven of their games this season by more than seven points; the 1984 Oilers are the only team since the merger to start 0-8 with all eight losses going for more than seven points. Furthermore, New York has a minus-118 point differential this season, and a 20-point loss would mark the team's worst point differential through eight games in franchise history (minus-137 in 1976).
Injuries: Jets | Chiefs
What to know for fantasy: Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill has scored more than 15.5 fantasy points in six of seven games despite not yet having a 100-yard game (and four games under 65 yards).
Betting nugget: Reigning champions are just 2-8 ATS against teams that entered with 0-6 (or worse) outright records. And they've failed to cover each of the past seven times in that spot since 1978.
Cimini's pick: Chiefs 34, Jets 10 Teicher's pick: Chiefs 30, Jets 13 FPI prediction: KC, 94.1% (by an average of 21.2 points)
Bold prediction: The Raiders, bolstered by the return of right tackle Trent Brown, will shut out the league's leading sack master in Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who already has nine sacks and has had a sack in six straight games. -- Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Cleveland running back Kareem Hunt has seven scrimmage touchdowns this season. The Browns are 5-0 when Hunt scores but 0-2 in games in which he fails to find the end zone.
Injuries: Raiders | Browns
What to know for fantasy: Mayfield averaged 1.07 fantasy points per pass attempt in the big win over the Bengals, more than 2.5 times his season rate prior to the game.
Betting nugget: All six Raiders games this season have gone over the total. The longest over streak from the start of a season was the 2002 Saints, who started the season with nine consecutive overs.
Gutierrez's pick: Raiders 28, Browns 27 Trotter's pick: Browns 27, Raiders 26 FPI prediction: CLE, 55.2% (by an average of 1.8 points)
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Bold prediction: The Raiders, bolstered by the return of right tackle Trent Brown, will shut out the league's leading sack master in Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who already has nine sacks and has had a sack in six straight games. -- Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Cleveland running back Kareem Hunt has seven scrimmage touchdowns this season. The Browns are 5-0 when Hunt scores but 0-2 in games in which he fails to find the end zone.
Injuries: Raiders | Browns
What to know for fantasy: Mayfield averaged 1.07 fantasy points per pass attempt in the big win over the Bengals, more than 2.5 times his season rate prior to the game.
Betting nugget: All six Raiders games this season have gone over the total. The longest over streak from the start of a season was the 2002 Saints, who started the season with nine consecutive overs.
Gutierrez's pick: Raiders 28, Browns 27 Trotter's pick: Browns 27, Raiders 26 FPI prediction: CLE, 55.2% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Bold prediction: Colts receiver TY Hilton's string of not having at least 100 yards receiving will end at 17 games. Hilton, who is off to the slowest start of his nine-year career, hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game since he had 138 against the Giants on Dec. 23, 2018. -- Mike Wells
Stat to know: Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers has a season-high three passing touchdowns against the Bengals before last week's bye, but he has not posted multiple passing scores in consecutive games since Weeks 13-14 of last season. And Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off his first 300-yard passing game of the season against the Falcons, but he has not passed for 300 yards or more in consecutive games since a three-game streak from Weeks 7-9 of 2019.
Injuries: Colts | Lions
What to know for fantasy: Lions running back D'Andre Swift has three scores over his past two games (two touchdowns this season prior) and is averaging 15 touches in those games (6.3 in prior games).
Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 11-3-1 ATS coming off of a bye week since the start of the 2005 season.
Wells' pick: Colts 28, Lions 20 Rothstein's pick: Lions 27, Colts 23 FPI prediction: IND, 57.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)
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Bold prediction: Colts receiver TY Hilton's string of not having at least 100 yards receiving will end at 17 games. Hilton, who is off to the slowest start of his nine-year career, hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game since he had 138 against the Giants on Dec. 23, 2018. -- Mike Wells
Stat to know: Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers has a season-high three passing touchdowns against the Bengals before last week's bye, but he has not posted multiple passing scores in consecutive games since Weeks 13-14 of last season. And Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off his first 300-yard passing game of the season against the Falcons, but he has not passed for 300 yards or more in consecutive games since a three-game streak from Weeks 7-9 of 2019.
Injuries: Colts | Lions
What to know for fantasy: Lions running back D'Andre Swift has three scores over his past two games (two touchdowns this season prior) and is averaging 15 touches in those games (6.3 in prior games).
Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 11-3-1 ATS coming off of a bye week since the start of the 2005 season.
Wells' pick: Colts 28, Lions 20 Rothstein's pick: Lions 27, Colts 23 FPI prediction: IND, 57.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)
What to watch for: This game could feature a ton of points. The Bengals are ranked 21st in points allowed, while the Titans are tied for 16th. Cincinnati rookie quarterback Joe Burrow will have to protect the ball and make smart decisions against a Tennessee team ranked first in the NFL in total takeaways. -- Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Titans' offense will start out on fire, especially in the passing game. Once they get a comfortable lead, they'll turn to running back Derrick Henry to close it out. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will finish with 300 passing yards, Derrick Henry will rush for 150 yards and A.J. Brown will have 100 yards receiving. -- Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Bengals are tied for the most sacks allowed this season with the Eagles (28), and their 34.3% pass rush win rate is the league's fourth worst.
Injuries: Titans | Bengals
What to know for fantasy: Burrow has reached 300 passing yards in five of his past six starts, but should you worry about the Browns not being this week's opposition? In two games against Cleveland this season, Burrow has six touchdown passes. In his other five games, that total is just three.
Betting nugget: The over is 14-2 in the regular season in Tennessee games since Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback last season.
Davenport's pick: Titans 42, Bengals 28 Baby's pick: Titans 45, Bengals 31 FPI prediction: TEN, 63.7% (by an average of 4.8 points)
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What to watch for: This game could feature a ton of points. The Bengals are ranked 21st in points allowed, while the Titans are tied for 16th. Cincinnati rookie quarterback Joe Burrow will have to protect the ball and make smart decisions against a Tennessee team ranked first in the NFL in total takeaways. -- Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Titans' offense will start out on fire, especially in the passing game. Once they get a comfortable lead, they'll turn to running back Derrick Henry to close it out. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will finish with 300 passing yards, Derrick Henry will rush for 150 yards and A.J. Brown will have 100 yards receiving. -- Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Bengals are tied for the most sacks allowed this season with the Eagles (28), and their 34.3% pass rush win rate is the league's fourth worst.
Injuries: Titans | Bengals
What to know for fantasy: Burrow has reached 300 passing yards in five of his past six starts, but should you worry about the Browns not being this week's opposition? In two games against Cleveland this season, Burrow has six touchdown passes. In his other five games, that total is just three.
Betting nugget: The over is 14-2 in the regular season in Tennessee games since Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback last season.
Davenport's pick: Titans 42, Bengals 28 Baby's pick: Titans 45, Bengals 31 FPI prediction: TEN, 63.7% (by an average of 4.8 points)
What to watch for: How will Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert handle a variety of coverage looks from the Broncos, ranked 13th in the league in pass defense? There will be no blizzard this week in Denver, but the Broncos are coming off a snow-swept game in which the defense was the only unit that showed up, as it held the Chiefs to 286 total yards and no third-down conversions. Herbert has faced three top-10 pass defenses this season, and he completed 72% of his passes in those games with five touchdowns and all three of his interceptions. He has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in his other two starts combined. -- Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: Look for Herbert to throw for 300-plus yards with receiver Mike Williams making a reemergence. Denver is shot, and the Chargers are hot ... sort of. No way Herbert goes into the Mile High City and doesn't take advantage of that thin air. Everyone is wondering whether Herbert can throw it over the mountain. -- Shelley Smith
Stat to know: Broncos quarterback Drew Lock has a 19.9 Total QBR in the past two weeks, third worst among 32 qualified QBs and ahead of only Cam Newton (13.0) and Joe Flacco (11.6) over that span.
Injuries: Chargers | Broncos
What to know for fantasy: Herbert has seen his fantasy production spike in three straight and has 10 touchdown passes against one interception in those games (two touchdown passes and two interceptions prior).
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 5-1 ATS this season, tied with Green Bay and Pittsburgh for the best cover percentage in the NFL. Legwold's pick: Broncos 22, Chargers 21 FPI prediction: DEN, 53.3% (by an average of 1.2 points)
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What to watch for: How will Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert handle a variety of coverage looks from the Broncos, ranked 13th in the league in pass defense? There will be no blizzard this week in Denver, but the Broncos are coming off a snow-swept game in which the defense was the only unit that showed up, as it held the Chiefs to 286 total yards and no third-down conversions. Herbert has faced three top-10 pass defenses this season, and he completed 72% of his passes in those games with five touchdowns and all three of his interceptions. He has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in his other two starts combined. -- Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: Look for Herbert to throw for 300-plus yards with receiver Mike Williams making a reemergence. Denver is shot, and the Chargers are hot ... sort of. No way Herbert goes into the Mile High City and doesn't take advantage of that thin air. Everyone is wondering whether Herbert can throw it over the mountain. -- Shelley Smith
Stat to know: Broncos quarterback Drew Lock has a 19.9 Total QBR in the past two weeks, third worst among 32 qualified QBs and ahead of only Cam Newton (13.0) and Joe Flacco (11.6) over that span.
Injuries: Chargers | Broncos
What to know for fantasy: Herbert has seen his fantasy production spike in three straight and has 10 touchdown passes against one interception in those games (two touchdown passes and two interceptions prior).
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 5-1 ATS this season, tied with Green Bay and Pittsburgh for the best cover percentage in the NFL. Legwold's pick: Broncos 22, Chargers 21 FPI prediction: DEN, 53.3% (by an average of 1.2 points)
What to watch for: Wanna see a shootout? This matchup has all the makings of one. The Seahawks' top three running backs are all question marks due to injuries, which could force them to focus their game plan around MVP front-runner Russell Wilson and his receivers. Their defense has already allowed the most yards through six games in NFL history and could again be without safety Jamal Adams. That's a bad combination against an excellent playcaller in Kyle Shanahan. -- Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Last week might have been National Tight Ends Day, but Sunday will be 49ers tight end George Kittle's day. Kittle will go for 150-plus yards and score at least once against a Seahawks defense that is struggling to stop everybody and has allowed an average of 14.8 yards per catch to tight ends, 31st in the league. -- Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has the third-shortest average pass distance (6.5 air yards) and the fifth-worst interception rate (3.0%) since the start of last season, including playoffs. He's the only QB to rank in the bottom five in both categories.
Injuries: 49ers | Seahawks
What to know for fantasy: Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett is doing some historic things through seven weeks, but he has been held in check over his past seven meetings with the 49ers (8.1 fantasy points per game).
Betting nugget: Seattle is 13-4 ATS against San Francisco since the start of the 2012 season.
Wagoner's pick: Seahawks 31, 49ers 27 Henderson's pick: Seahwks 38, 49ers 35 FPI prediction: SEA, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)
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What to watch for: Wanna see a shootout? This matchup has all the makings of one. The Seahawks' top three running backs are all question marks due to injuries, which could force them to focus their game plan around MVP front-runner Russell Wilson and his receivers. Their defense has already allowed the most yards through six games in NFL history and could again be without safety Jamal Adams. That's a bad combination against an excellent playcaller in Kyle Shanahan. -- Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Last week might have been National Tight Ends Day, but Sunday will be 49ers tight end George Kittle's day. Kittle will go for 150-plus yards and score at least once against a Seahawks defense that is struggling to stop everybody and has allowed an average of 14.8 yards per catch to tight ends, 31st in the league. -- Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has the third-shortest average pass distance (6.5 air yards) and the fifth-worst interception rate (3.0%) since the start of last season, including playoffs. He's the only QB to rank in the bottom five in both categories.
Injuries: 49ers | Seahawks
What to know for fantasy: Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett is doing some historic things through seven weeks, but he has been held in check over his past seven meetings with the 49ers (8.1 fantasy points per game).
Betting nugget: Seattle is 13-4 ATS against San Francisco since the start of the 2012 season.
Wagoner's pick: Seahawks 31, 49ers 27 Henderson's pick: Seahwks 38, 49ers 35 FPI prediction: SEA, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)
What to watch for: The Bears seemed to be in shambles after Monday night's debacle in Los Angeles. All is lost, right? Not so fast. Looks can be deceiving, particularly when it pertains to the Bears. But since coach Matt Nagy took over in 2018, the Bears are 8-4 following a loss, and more importantly, 5-0 on short weeks. The Bears are often at their best when expectations are at their lowest. -- Jeff Dickerson
Bold prediction: Chicago quarterback Nick Foles will bounce back from Monday night's dud with at least one deep touchdown pass. The Saints have now allowed six passes of 48-plus yards in their past four games. But the Saints will see running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combine for 150 rushing yards. -- Mike Triplett
Stat to know: The Saints' 78.7 offensive efficiency is sixth in the NFL, but their 23.2 defensive efficiency ranks 28th. No team has made the playoffs with a defensive efficiency below 30 since efficiency ratings began in 2006.
Injuries: Saints | Bears
What to know for fantasy: Kamara is looking to join Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley II and DeMarco Murray as the only non-QBs since 2001 to open a season with 19.9 fantasy points in each of their teams' first seven games.
Betting nugget: New Orleans is 14-4 ATS on the road since the start of the 2018 season.
Triplett's pick: Saints 27, Bears 23 Dickerson's pick: Bears 23, Saints 21 FPI prediction: NO, 61.5% (by an average of 4.0 points)
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What to watch for: The Bears seemed to be in shambles after Monday night's debacle in Los Angeles. All is lost, right? Not so fast. Looks can be deceiving, particularly when it pertains to the Bears. But since coach Matt Nagy took over in 2018, the Bears are 8-4 following a loss, and more importantly, 5-0 on short weeks. The Bears are often at their best when expectations are at their lowest. -- Jeff Dickerson
Bold prediction: Chicago quarterback Nick Foles will bounce back from Monday night's dud with at least one deep touchdown pass. The Saints have now allowed six passes of 48-plus yards in their past four games. But the Saints will see running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combine for 150 rushing yards. -- Mike Triplett
Stat to know: The Saints' 78.7 offensive efficiency is sixth in the NFL, but their 23.2 defensive efficiency ranks 28th. No team has made the playoffs with a defensive efficiency below 30 since efficiency ratings began in 2006.
Injuries: Saints | Bears
What to know for fantasy: Kamara is looking to join Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley II and DeMarco Murray as the only non-QBs since 2001 to open a season with 19.9 fantasy points in each of their teams' first seven games.
Betting nugget: New Orleans is 14-4 ATS on the road since the start of the 2018 season.
Triplett's pick: Saints 27, Bears 23 Dickerson's pick: Bears 23, Saints 21 FPI prediction: NO, 61.5% (by an average of 4.0 points)
What to watch for: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has committed a league-high 12 turnovers this season. His 10 interceptions are tied with Kirk Cousins for the most in the NFL. That would seem to be good news for the Cowboys. The only issue? Dallas' defense has forced an NFL-low three takeaways. Something has to give. -- Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Philadelphia running back Boston Scott will rush for more than 100 yards. He has just 113 on the season through seven games, but the Cowboys have allowed more than 200 yards rushing as a team in three of the past four games. They are allowing a league-worst 178.3 yards per game on the ground. Even with a banged-up offensive line, the Eagles will be able to get the job done with Scott on the ground. Miles Sanders hasn't practiced this week. -- Todd Archer
Stat to know: Eagles receiver Travis Fulgham is the only NFL player with at least 350 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns over the past four weeks (third-most receiving yards in that span, behind only George Kittle and Robby Anderson). The Cowboys have allowed 12 receiving TDs to wide receivers this season, tied for the most league-wide.
Injuries: Cowboys | Eagles
What to know for fantasy: Wentz has posted two of his top three career fantasy games over the past two weeks and now gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed not one, not two, but three quarterbacks to rack up north of 28 fantasy points against them this season.
Betting nugget: This is the first time Dallas has ever started 0-7 ATS, and it's one short of the longest winless streak to start a season against the spread over the past 20 seasons. Oakland in 2003 failed to cover in each of its first eight games of the season. The Cowboys will potentially have Ben DiNucci, a seventh-round rookie, under center as they try to cover for the first time this season.
Archer's pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 17 McManus' pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 13 FPI prediction: PHI, 75.4% (by an average of 9.3 points)
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What to watch for: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has committed a league-high 12 turnovers this season. His 10 interceptions are tied with Kirk Cousins for the most in the NFL. That would seem to be good news for the Cowboys. The only issue? Dallas' defense has forced an NFL-low three takeaways. Something has to give. -- Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Philadelphia running back Boston Scott will rush for more than 100 yards. He has just 113 on the season through seven games, but the Cowboys have allowed more than 200 yards rushing as a team in three of the past four games. They are allowing a league-worst 178.3 yards per game on the ground. Even with a banged-up offensive line, the Eagles will be able to get the job done with Scott on the ground. Miles Sanders hasn't practiced this week. -- Todd Archer
Stat to know: Eagles receiver Travis Fulgham is the only NFL player with at least 350 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns over the past four weeks (third-most receiving yards in that span, behind only George Kittle and Robby Anderson). The Cowboys have allowed 12 receiving TDs to wide receivers this season, tied for the most league-wide.
Injuries: Cowboys | Eagles
What to know for fantasy: Wentz has posted two of his top three career fantasy games over the past two weeks and now gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed not one, not two, but three quarterbacks to rack up north of 28 fantasy points against them this season.
Betting nugget: This is the first time Dallas has ever started 0-7 ATS, and it's one short of the longest winless streak to start a season against the spread over the past 20 seasons. Oakland in 2003 failed to cover in each of its first eight games of the season. The Cowboys will potentially have Ben DiNucci, a seventh-round rookie, under center as they try to cover for the first time this season.
Archer's pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 17 McManus' pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 13 FPI prediction: PHI, 75.4% (by an average of 9.3 points)
What to watch for: Watch how Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady attacks this Giants secondary. Brady and the Bucs are third in the NFL in averaging 31.7 points per game. They get to face a Giants defense that is in the bottom half of the league in pass defense (21st) despite facing four backup quarterbacks in their first seven games. This is a different kind of test. -- Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Buccaneers linebacker Devin White will get double-digit tackles, pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul will get two sacks and the Bucs' defense will give up just one touchdown. Tampa Bay isn't overlooking this one, even against a one-win Giants squad, and its defense hasn't forgotten the 18-point lead it blew to New York quarterback Daniel Jones last year in a 32-31 loss at home. But this is a much different Bucs defense, and both White and Pierre-Paul were out because of injuries in that matchup last season. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Giants are the only NFL team to lose six of their first seven games in three of the past four seasons. They are guaranteed to start no better than 2-6 through eight games for the fourth straight season, and they would start 1-7 for the third time in the past four seasons with a loss.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants
What to know for fantasy: Brady is looking for consecutive 30-point games for the first time since Weeks 2-3 of 2017, after producing his best game since Week 6 of 2009 (36.9 fantasy points) against the Raiders.
Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-7 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season. If you go back to the start of the 2018 season, New York is 1-12 ATS as a home underdog. Read more.
Laine's pick: Buccaneers 33, Giants 18 Raanan's pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 17 FPI prediction: TB, 83.0% (by an average of 12.9 points)
What to watch for: Watch how Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady attacks this Giants secondary. Brady and the Bucs are third in the NFL in averaging 31.7 points per game. They get to face a Giants defense that is in the bottom half of the league in pass defense (21st) despite facing four backup quarterbacks in their first seven games. This is a different kind of test. -- Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Buccaneers linebacker Devin White will get double-digit tackles, pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul will get two sacks and the Bucs' defense will give up just one touchdown. Tampa Bay isn't overlooking this one, even against a one-win Giants squad, and its defense hasn't forgotten the 18-point lead it blew to New York quarterback Daniel Jones last year in a 32-31 loss at home. But this is a much different Bucs defense, and both White and Pierre-Paul were out because of injuries in that matchup last season. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Giants are the only NFL team to lose six of their first seven games in three of the past four seasons. They are guaranteed to start no better than 2-6 through eight games for the fourth straight season, and they would start 1-7 for the third time in the past four seasons with a loss.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants
What to know for fantasy: Brady is looking for consecutive 30-point games for the first time since Weeks 2-3 of 2017, after producing his best game since Week 6 of 2009 (36.9 fantasy points) against the Raiders.
Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-7 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season. If you go back to the start of the 2018 season, New York is 1-12 ATS as a home underdog. Read more.
Laine's pick: Buccaneers 33, Giants 18 Raanan's pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 17 FPI prediction: TB, 83.0% (by an average of 12.9 points)
SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) at SEATTLE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM Top Trends for this game. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons 3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) at SEATTLE (5 - 1) - 11/1/2020, 4:25 PM Top Trends for this game. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons 3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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