Sun NFL Info

C.Cowherd Blaz 5

Mia + 4 27-26

Ten -6.5  38-24

Colts -3  27-20

Den +3.5 28-27

Sea -3  28-21

Matt Stafford’s average depth of target has been above 10 yards every week with Kenny Golladay in the lineup and last week Stafford completed 14 of his 16 attempts with 10+ air yards for 279 yards and a touchdown. Golladay was the top target on 10+ air yard throws and he hauled in all 5 of his contested targets. However, Colts’ CB Xavier Rhodes is surrendering just one reception every 15.4 cover snaps (9th) and he will make it difficult for Golladay on Sunday. Lions’ slot receiver Danny Amendola may also struggle on the inside as nickelback Kenny Moore is conceding just 0.82 yards per slot cover snap (3rd).

The Colts have played the easiest schedule in the NFL according to our metrics and none of their opponents have a positive point differential, including the 5-win Browns and Bears. However, this isn’t the week to fade Indianapolis as they are coming off a bye, which is worth 1.1 points by our numbers, and the Colts apply to a 51-11 ATS road favorite off a bye situation. The extra week of rest should allow Pro Bowl LB Darius Leonard to be back in uniform on Sunday after missing the previous two games with a groin injury.

Our model favors the Colts by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 51.3 points, and the situation is favorable.  By Dr.Bob

Patriots enter this game on a 3-game losing streak for the first time since 2002. Prior to last week the Pats has won 11 games in a row after consecutive losses and Bill Belichick’s team is still an incredible 31-4 ATS in regular season games following a loss when not favored by more than 6 points, including 4-1 ATS without Tom Brady at quarterback.

I don’t think Nick Foles is the problem for Chicago’s offense. Foles was sacked four times and pressured on nearly half his dropbacks last week. The Bears offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency and Matt Nagy is not scheming players open for Foles either. Foles has thrown a league-high 23% of his passes into tight windows despite only ranking around league average in depth of target. Foles’ top target Allen Robinson is in concussion protocol and faces a difficult matchup across from Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore even if he does suit up. There is expected to be 20 mph winds at Soldier Field on Sunday and I don’t think this will be the week we see Chicago’s passing game turn it around.

Our model favors the Saints by just 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 41.5 points assuming Thomas and Sanders don’t play.  By Dr.Bob

Lamar Jackson’s potential knee issue was not a factor before the bye week, as he ran for 108 yards against the Eagles two weeks ago. The Steelers are allowing fewer than 70 yards per game to opponents on the ground this season but containing Jackson’s running is not the same as defending running backs. I also think the Ravens will be able to hit the Steelers over the top, as Pittsburgh’s defense has surrendered the 4th-highest explosive pass play percentage (27%) and Marquise Brown is one of the most dangerous deep threats in the NFL. Brown is averaging one reception with at least 20 air yards per game this season. The Steelers are allowing less than 5 yards per target to opposing tight ends and it will be a difficult matchup for Mark Andrews.

Our model favors the Ravens by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points, and Baltimore applies to a 62-16-1 ATS favorite off a bye situation. The model leans over the total a bit but Pittsburgh is 33-3-1 UNDER in road games when the total is 49 points or lower.

Post-bye road favorite subsystems:
• vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-10-1
ATS since ’00, 72.9%, +16 units, 42.1% ROI,
Grade 65) — Indianapolis?

(post-bye game, 11/1 Pittsburgh)
• Baltimore is 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS in post-bye
games dating back to ’02
• The Ravens are 3-6 ATS in their last nine post-bye
games vs. divisional foes

INDIANAPOLIS
(post-bye game, 11/1 at Detroit)
• Indianapolis has gone on a 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS
post-bye run vs. NFC foes

• The Colts are on an extended 15-5-1 Over-the-
total run in post-bye games

MIAMI
(post-bye game, 11/1 L.A. Rams)
• Miami is on a 4-0-1 ATS surge in post-bye
games
• The Dolphins are on a 3-6-2 ATS slide in post-bye
home games

(post-bye game, 11/1 at Green Bay)
• For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye
games, they are just as bad out of the bye, 2-8 SU
and ATS in last 10

• The Vikings are on a 0-4 SU and ATS skid in post-
bye divisional games, outscored by 13.8 PPG

PITTSBURGH is 20-5 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 24 PPG or more
• BALTIMORE is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Favorite of 7 or less points
• PITTSBURGH is 13-1-1 UNDER(L15G) on ROAD - Against lesser rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry

UNDERDOGS are 8-1-2 ATS in L11 of PIT-BAL rivalry

(251) INDIANAPOLIS at (252) DETROIT
Game line: Indianapolis by 3
• Trend: INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6-1 ATS (L25G)
against decent passing teams averaging more
than 6.80 yards per attempt
• Trend: DETROIT is 6-18-1 ATS (L25G) at home
against decent passing teams averaging more
than 6.80 yards per attempt

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE
After Tennessee win, Mike Tomlin 11-2 as
underdog since 2018. Ravens just 6-6 vs. spread
last 12 as hosts. Ravens on 8-4 Under run since
late 2019, Steelers Under 8-1 last nine away.
Tech Edge: Under and Steelers, based on totals
and team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO
Saints covered last seven on road in 2019,
now 8-1 last nine vs. points as visitors. Before
Monday night loss to Rams, Bears 4-1 SU and
vs. line as dogs this season. Saints also Over
7-2 last nine away and Over 8-1 last nine since
late 2019, though Bears Under 13-8 since
2019 before Rams game. Tech Edge: Over
and slight to Saints, based on totals and team
trends.

(267) NEW ORLEANS at (268) CHICAGO
Game line: New Orleans by 4
• Trend: NEW ORLEANS is 22-4-1 ATS (L5Y) on
road on Sunday

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO
Bill Belichick has lost SU to Bills only three times

in last 33 meetings, including in last regular-
season game, another with Jacoby Brissett at

QB. Pats 5-2 vs. line last seven regular-season
meetings. As a dog, Belichick 14-4 since 2010.
Bills only 4-8 vs. line last 12 on board. Under 7-4
last 11 meetings. Tech Edge: Patriots and slight
to Under, based on team and totals trends.

• MIAMI is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - Against aggressive defenses forcing more than 1.9 turnovers per game
• LA RAMS are 37-62-1 ATS(L100G) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game
• LA RAMS are 8-2 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - [vs OPP] Before playing ARIZONA

UNDERDOGS have won four straight ATS in Rams-Dolphins series

...SUNDAY NIGHT games have gone 3-4 O/U (54.0 ppg).
...MONDAY NIGHT games have gone 2-8 O/U (80% Under / only 44.8 ppg).
...and TUESDAY NIGHT games have gone 1-0 O/U (58.0 ppg).
Sunday’s EARLY kickoff games (1:00pm ET) went 2-4-1 O/U (37-20 O/U / 52.4
ppg).
Sunday’s LATE kickoff games (4:05pm ET) went 3-1 O/U (9-14 O/U / 47.8 ppg).
DIVISIONAL games went 4-3 O/U (17-14 O/U / 46.5 ppg).
AFC non-division Conference games went 1-0-1 O/U (11-9-1 O/U / 49.1 ppg).
NFC non-division Conference games went 0-2 O/U (11-15 O/U / 49.8 ppg).
NON-Conference games (AFC vs NFC) went 1-2 O/U (16-1 O/U / 53.5 ppg).
In this week’s Game Eight action, the oddsmakers have finally started making a
move. As of Tuesday morning, the average OU line for this week’s games is down
to 48.4. That’s about 2 points LESS per game than in the previous four weeks.
NFL Week Seven OU Results / Week Eight OU lines

3
Game 7 vs Game 7? Go LOW...

This might be the 8TH week of the 2020 season. But we’re also midway thru the
Byes. So that means there are a handful of games going this weekend featuring
two teams that have already enjoyed their ‘Week of Rest’. A database query tells
us to pass on the OVERS in these games... and focus instead on the UNDERS.
9-22-1 O/U (71% Unders) last 5 years: All GAME 7 home teams versus any GAME
7 opponent. This week, the four games that are active in this ‘Game 7 vs Game 7’
situation are: Colts @ Lions... Vikings @ Packers... Steelers @ Ravens... and
Chargers @ Broncos. Here’s a tidbit that potentially seals the deal: When the

OU line in these games is 43 or more points, the results improve to an UNDER-
whelming 2-16-1 O/U in the last three years. And ALL FOUR of the games I just

mentioned have OU lines well over 43 points. So you know what to do...

Non-Division teams before Bye Week? Think OVER...

Here’s a variation of what was on this page last week. And it basically ap-
plies to this season only. Once again, it has us considering the OVER for all

teams who are heading into their Bye after this week’s games. 10-1 O/U so far
in THIS current 2020 season: All NON-DIVISION teams BEFORE their Bye
Week, when the OU line is 54 or less points. This week, the two games on our
‘Over RADAR’ are: CLEVELAND BROWNS vs LAS VEGAS RAIDERS... and
LOS ANGELES RAMS vs MIAMI DOLPHINS.
I ran a query for all OU results for this season after seven weeks. Sometimes,
there is a particular LINE RANGE that produces significantly more OVERS than
UNDERS. Here’s one that has hit at 71% so far in 2020. NFL games with an OU
line in the range of 50 to 53 points have already gone 17-7-1 O/U this season. So
keep your eye on this particular range when researching this week’s games. As of

Tuesday, only ONE game falls in this 71% OVER range. And that game is the non-
conference affair between the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS and DETROIT LIONS.

Most profitable line range for OVERS this season

I ran a query for all OU results for this season after seven weeks. Sometimes,
there is a particular LINE RANGE that produces significantly more OVERS than
UNDERS. Here’s one that has hit at 71% so far in 2020. NFL games with an OU
line in the range of 50 to 53 points have already gone 17-7-1 O/U this season. So
keep your eye on this particular range when researching this week’s games. As of

Tuesday, only ONE game falls in this 71% OVER range. And that game is the non-
conference affair between the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS and DETROIT LIONS.

the LA RAMS to go OVER their Team Total of 25.5
points as they head down here to South Florida to take on the Dolphins. Yes, the Rams let us
down two weeks ago... but Tuco holds no grudges. If this game were in LA, we’d probably pass
since the Rams are averaging only 20.3 ppg at home. But the numbers are more than a full TD
higher when LA takes to the road (28.8 ppg TY). And on the flip side, the Dolphins have allowed
30.2 ppg at HOME over the last two years. LA just played on Monday (beat the Bears 24-10). NFL
favorites who scored 24 < pts on a MONDAY have averaged 32.1 ppg in their next game. Miami
comes in off their Bye Week. Non-Division home DOGS after their Bye Week (MIA) have allowed
31.5 ppg in the last 4 years. Yes, Miami just pitched a SHUTOUT in their last home game (vs the
Jets). NFL dogs off a home SHUTOUT win have allowed 29.0 ppg (L10Y). The clincher for King’s
Best Friend is a query based on AFC vs NFC games. Already in THIS 2020 season, AFC home
underdogs (DOLPHINS) have allowed a whopping 32.2 ppg versus any NFC opponent (RAMS).

G.Bay at S.F. NEXT Thursday

NFL Teams before a TNF ( or scheduled appearance ) are 2-10 SO & 3-8-1 ATS.

G.Bay at S.F next Thursday

Since start of week 5, NFL Dogs in non-div conf games are 11-4 ATS overall

including 8-2 ATS last two weeks.