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Bay will try to build on that trend when it takes on

New Orleans for the third time this season.
• Here are the divisional-round records since ’02 for
the teams playing this weekend:
- Los Angeles Rams: 1-0 SU and ATS
- Green Bay: 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS
- Baltimore: 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS
- Buffalo: First appearance since 1995
- Cleveland: First appearance since 1994
- Kansas City: 2-3 SU and ATS
- Tampa Bay: 1-0 SU and ATS
- New Orleans: 3-3 SU and ATS
• A significant performance difference has
developed in home-road dichotomy based on the
day of the weekend the divisional game has been
played. On Saturdays, home teams have gone

19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS over the last 11 seasons.
Over the total is also 15-7 in those games. On
Sundays, road teams have performed much
better, going 14-16 SU and 21-8-1 ATS since ’06.

However, they were 0-2 SU and ATS in 2020.
• In terms of AFC-NFC breakdown, AFC home
teams are 16-7 SU and 12-10-1 ATS in the last 23,
while NFC hosts are 22-8 SU and 14-16 ATS since
’06 in this playoff round but are riding a six-game
SU winning streak.
• In terms of wild-card teams’ potential success in
the divisional round, 11 of the last 12 wild cards
to cover the spread in divisional games played
well defensively in the previous game, allowing
20 or fewer points. The Rams and Ravens are
hoping to continue that trend in 2021.

DIVISIONAL TRENDS BY SEED
NUMBER • Teams fight all season for home-field advantage
throughout their conference playoffs. But that
advantage has not lasted long as No. 1 seeds are
23-11 SU but just 12-21-1 ATS dating to 2004. The
Ravens were a No. 1 last year in their outright
loss to the Titans.
• Making matters worse for the No. 1 seeds is their
record against No. 6s. In that matchup the home
teams are just 9-6 SU and 4-10-1 ATS since ’06.
This was the Ravens’ scenario in 2019, and Green
Bay and Kansas City will host No. 6 seeds in 2021.

No. 1 seeds playing as small home favorites of
seven points or fewer are on an ugly 4-10-1 ATS
slide, though they have won two straight outright
and ATS.
• No. 2 seeds have been arguably more effective
than No. 1s in protecting home-field advantage,
going 23-9 SU and 18-14 ATS over the last 16
playoff seasons. They have also swept the last two
seasons at 4-0 SU and ATS.
• NFC No. 1 seeds are just 5-9 ATS in their last 14
games. NFC No. 2s are on a six-game winning
streak while going 3-3 ATS.

Of the last 28 teams that pulled off road wins in
the wild-card round to advance to this weekend,
17 have covered the point spread (62.9% with
one push) and 10 have won a second straight
road game outright. The Rams, Ravens, Browns
and Buccaneers will be seeking second straight
road wins this weekend. This is only the second
time since ’02 that all four road teams are wild
cards. The other time was in 2016, and hosts
wound up going 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS that
weekend.

DIVISIONAL TRENDS REGARDING
TOTALS • In the last 25 matchups between a No. 1 seed
and a wild-card team or a road winner from the
previous weekend, Under the total is 17-7-1, with
the home team scoring just 22.4 points.
• No. 1 seeds are on a 12-8 Over-the-total run, but
No. 2 seeds are a bit higher scoring at 14-6 Over
in the last 10 years.
• Home teams that have covered the point spread in

divisional-round games are also on a 17-3 Over-
the-total surge. Alternatively, road team covers

have seen 16 Unders and nine Overs since ’08.

In other words, home teams win with offense, and
road teams compete with defense.

FOLLOWING THE LINE/TOTAL
MOVES • Last week I showed that sharp bettors were
right at a 25-15-1 ATS rate in wild-card games
heading into last weekend. This was determined
to be when the line moves off its opening position
toward either team. This same group has been
sharp in the divisional round, too, going 19-9

ATS since ’09. Only six of the last 49 divisional-
round games moved more than a point off the

opening number, and those came in the last seven
years. Oddsmakers have been quite sharp in that
regard. For 2021, the only consensus early move
seemed to be on Baltimore. Again, though, the

Again, though, the
key moves often come late in the hours before
kickoff.
• Bettors have picked successfully on early totals as
well, going 26-14 in the last 40 divisional playoff
games in which the total moved off the opening
number, including 4-0 last season. Early bettors
were favoring Over in all the games except the
Packers-Rams contest.

• Kansas City are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
• Kansas City are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games against Cleveland.
• Kansas City are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home.
• Kansas City are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland.
• Kansas City are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season.
• Kansas City are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games played in January.

• Cleveland are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games.
• Cleveland are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
• Cleveland are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Kansas City.
• Cleveland are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Kansas City.
• Cleveland are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
• Cleveland are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
• Cleveland are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference West division.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games played in January.

Thanks...Time to make huge Money line parley on this Sunday games. Kansas City ML + New Orleans ML.. Thinking Tom Brady will go home!!!

The Chiefs opened as 10-point favorites and the line adjusted down slightly to 9.5 (110 on both sides). The Browns, who were third in the NFL in rushing with 148.4 YPG, will try to control the tempo with their rushing tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and keep this one close.

BET THE BROWNS TO COVER 9.5 (-110).

To hit 57.5 (-110 on both sides), which is the highest total on this weekend’s slate by a lot, it’s going to take a decent amount of scoring. Both of these teams can do just that. Cleveland averaged 25.5 points per game and K.C. averaged 29.6. The Browns were 9-7 vs. the O/U while the Chiefs were 8-8 during the regular season.

The lean is a one-unit wager on the OVER, but you will sweat this out until late in the 4th quarter, especially if Cleveland can chew clock with its running game. By Sportsbookwire

Line moves failed miserably yesterday...really never close especially after the half...

The Bucs have won five straight games to the Saints’ three in a row. While New Orleans swept the season series, they have also had unfortunate exits from the postseason the last three years. The Bucs had their first playoff win in more than a decade and Brady has a history of postseason success. Both teams are great on defense and the Bucs were superior on offense.

New Orleans has allowed a total of 16 points in its last two games, but that was against bad offensive teams (Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers). The previous two weeks, they allowed over 30 points in each game while playing good offenses (Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings).

This should be a game for the ages, considering what is on the line for both Brees and Brady at this point in their careers. Take the BUCCANEERS (+140). By Sportsbookwire

Historically, it is foolish to bet against Brady in the postseason, He is 31-11 in the playoffs and has won at least two games in 10 different postseasons. Brees is 9-8 in the playoffs and has won more than one postseason game in a season only once.

Expecting an upset win by Tampa Bay, take the BUCCANEERS +3 (-105).

The two games earlier in the season between the two teams went 1-1 against the O/U. Both teams are 10-7 against the O/U for the season (including playoffs).

Three of the last four games for the Bucs have gone Over but the Saints’ last two have gone Under. Take OVER 51.5 POINTS (-115). By Sportsbookwire

Action Labs’ Bet Signals, which tracks professional betting action in real time, is reporting four separate instances of smart money coming down on the Bucs vs. Saints under.

Additionally, The Action Network’s NFL public betting data is showing a massive bets-vs.-dollars discrepancy regarding the total as well.

While the over has attracted 78% of the bets, the under has actually landed 48% of the money.

This, combined with the multiple Bet Signals detailed above, illuminate exactly how respected bettors are playing this number.

The Buccaneers vs. Saints under is not only attracting money from respected bettors, but it’s also in a spot that been profitable historically.

Late-season matchups, including the playoffs, between divisional opponents trend toward the under.

In fact, Bucs vs. Saints is a match for our Divisional Unders PRO Betting System, which has returned a 61% win rate since 2005.

Not to be outdone, three of our top betting experts are on the under as well, lighting up our PRO Report’s fourth value indicator.

PRO Report Pick: Under 52     By Actionnetwork

Over the past 10 seasons, Divisional Round favorites coming off a bye after resting their starters in Week 17 have gone 0-5 against the spread. And if you recall, Kansas City went down big early in this spot last year before exploding against Houston.

I just don’t see any reason the Browns can’t duplicate what we saw from the Raiders in two matchups with the Chiefs this season. Vegas actually won in Arrowhead and lost a tight one at home, covering both while allowing 30-plus points. By Actionnetwork  Clev+10

The Browns gave up more than 26 points per game this season and then allowed 37 points to the Steelers in the Wild Card round. Cleveland is playing without one of its top pass rushers in Olivier Vernon, and that could be a major problem in this game.

Cleveland can run the football well, and that will give the defense a chance to rest on the sidelines. The Browns averaged more than 150 rushing yards per game, and former Chiefs star Kareem Hunt will be out for revenge in this one.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield will likely be facing the most pressure on Sunday afternoon as the Browns will need to score points. Mayfield did throw three touchdown passes against the Steelers, but the Chiefs have a terrific secondary.

The Chiefs averaged 29.6 points per game, but they led the league with 303 passing yards per game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for over 4,700 yards, and he has plenty of weapons on that side of the ball.

The Chiefs are also expecting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire to return to the lineup, and that will give the team some balance on offense. Kansas City can score points in a hurry, and it will look to exploit a bad Browns defense. 

The defense for the Chiefs never seems to get much credit, but that unit is allowing just 22.6 points per game. If the Chiefs can hold the Browns to less than three touchdowns, the offense should be able to do the rest. 

The Browns have had a terrific 2020 season, but that run is going to come to an end on Sunday. Cleveland was able to stun the Steelers in the Wild Card round, but the Chiefs will be ready for them.

Mahomes put on a show last year during the Super Bowl run, and the Chiefs offense will have its way with the Browns defense in this game. Kansas City's run defense will slow down the Browns, and that will allow this game to get out of hand in a hurry.

The Chiefs will be heading to the AFC Championship Game again this season, and they will get there in convincing fashion. Bet the Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. By Dunkel Index

AFC No. 1 seeds in Division Round
games (Kansas City) are 19-11 SU
and 12-17-1 ATS.

Rested home teams (Chiefs and
Packers) are 115-42 SU and 82-70-5
ATS.