Sun NFL Info

This Sunday afternoon matchup (3:05 p.m. ET) features the largest spread of any divisional-round game. The sixth-seeded
Browns (12-5 SU, 7-10 ATS) shocked the Steelers 48-37 last week, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. It marked the
first playoff win for the Browns since 1994. Now they travel to Kansas City to face the top-seeded Chiefs (14-2 SU, 6-9-1
ATS). The defending champions are favored to repeat and win the Super Bowl (+220 at BetMGM). This line opened
with Kansas City listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know whom to back. They love Patrick
Mahomes but are wary of laying double digits against a feisty Browns squad. This line hasn’t budged off the opener of
10, but some books have juiced up the Browns +10 (-115), signaling some liability on the dog and a possible drop to 9.5.
Divisional-round dogs getting 7 points or more are about 60% ATS over the last decade. Lead referee Clay Martin has
historically favored road teams (70% ATS). The Chiefs enjoy a rest advantage as they’re coming off a bye. If this line
drops to 9.5, it will be interesting to see whether the books take in any Chiefs buyback (-9.5) below the key number of
10. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game, as this total has risen from 54.5 to 56. The Browns are 10-7 to
the Over. The Chiefs are 8-8 to the Over. The forecast calls for low 40s with moderate 5- to 10-mph winds. The Browns
will get a boost with the return of coach Kevin Stefanski, who missed the wild-card game due to COVID-19.

KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry
• CLEVELAND is 1-13-1 ATS(L15G) - good teams with 80% or better winning pct
• KANSAS CITY is 32-9 UNDER(L10Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG

ROAD TEAMS have won L3 ATS in CLE-KC h2h series and Browns are on a 3-0 ATS streak at Kansas City

305CLEVELAND -306 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

K.C is 1-12 in playoffs when not leading at halftime

Double digit favorites are 6-1 SUATS in this round Since 2011, HT Score 34.7 ppg & allow20.00 pts ( K.C.)

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV-Time: CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Chiefs -10, Total 56

Cleveland Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

This is the second meeting on the pro level between these former Texas Tech quarterbacks as Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs past Baker Mayfield and the Browns, 37-21 as 7.5-point road favorites in 2018.

Kareem Hunt scored three touchdowns for Kansas City, but the running back is now with Cleveland, making for an interesting storyline. The Chiefs and Browns are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time ever, while Cleveland is making its first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2015.

Playoff Notes

The Browns clinched their first postseason berth since 2002, when they ultimately lost to the rival Steelers in the Wild Card round. Fast forward 18 years later, Cleveland jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead to bounce Pittsburgh from the playoffs in a 48-37 triumph as five-point underdogs.

The Chiefs are fresh off their first Super Bowl title in nearly 50 years when they rallied past the 49ers last February. Kansas City is 4-1 in the playoffs with Mahomes as their starting quarterback, including a 3-1 mark at Arrowhead.

AFC top seeds won six consecutive divisional round games from 2013-18 before Baltimore was tripped up by Tennessee in 2019. Kansas City's four postseason victories under Mahomes' guidance have all come by 11 points or more.

CLEVELAND (12 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (14 - 2) - 1/17/2021, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Browns vs. Chiefs Spread Prediction

The Browns are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven meetings between these two teams and so is the underdog, while the road side has covered in five of the previous six series meetings. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite, are 1-7 against the number in their last eight games overall and are winless at the betting window in their last four games. Patrick Mahomes and Co. should still put together a winning performance on Sunday but the Chiefs just haven’t covered much over the past month and this is a big number for a playoff game. By A.Rome

Browns vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction

The over is 5-1 in the Browns’ last six conference matchups, is 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog and has cashed in five of Cleveland’s last seven games overall. On the other side, the over is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four games played in the month of January, is 4-1 in their last five home games versus a team with a winning road record and is 9-4 in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous contest. With the offensive firepower on both sides, it’s the over or nothing for me, despite the fact that the number is sitting so high.

By A.Rome

Bettors are in for a treat with this marquee Sunday evening (6:40 p.m. ET) grudge match between divisional rivals and
future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The fifth-seeded Bucs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) have won five straight and beat Washington
31-23 on wild-card weekend, though they failed to cover as 10-point road favorites. The second-seeded Saints (13-4
SU, 10-6-1 ATS) have won three straight, including a 21-9 victory over the Bears in last week’s playoff opener, covering
as 11-point home favorites. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Some shops opened
closer to -4. Pros immediately pounced on Tom Brady and the Bucs getting the hook (+3.5), forcing oddsmakers to drop
this line down to the key number of 3. The next move is critical. If you see this rise back to 3.5, it will likely indicate
buyback on the Saints -3. If you see it stay the same or even creep down to 2.5, that will signal continued support for
the Bucs. The Saints went 2-0 against the Bucs in the regular season, winning 34-23 in Week 1 and 38-3 in Week 9.
Divisional-round dogs are about 59% ATS over the last decade. Pros have hit this Over, pushing the total up from 50
to 52. Playoff dome Overs are about 65% over the last decade. Both teams are 10-7 to the Over this season. Tampa
is expected to get star linebacker Devin White back from the COVID-19 list. The Bucs enjoy a one-day rest advantage,
having played Saturday while the Saints played Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS is 14-1 ATS(L15G) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per carry
• TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS(L9G) - [vs OPP] After playing CHICAGO
• TAMPA BAY is 7-0 OVER(L7G) on ROAD - Against fortunate teams with a turnover differential of better than +0.30 TO’s/G

NEW ORLEANS has won five in a row SU & ATS vs. Tampa Bay while L3 h2h games in New Orleans went OVER the total

307TAMPA BAY -308 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 18-7 ATS (10.3 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

Opening Line: Saints -3, Total 52

Tampa Bay Road Record: 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

It's Round Three between these NFC South rivals as the Saints took care of the Buccaneers in each of the first two matchups by double-digits apiece. New Orleans topped Tampa Bay in Tom Brady's debut with the Buccaneers in Week 1 at the Superdome, 34-23. The Saints returned a Brady interception for a touchdown and won as four-point favorites in spite of gaining 271 yards of offense.

In the second matchup at Raymond James Stadium in early November, the Saints wrecked the Buccaneers as three-point underdogs, 38-3 for their fifth straight win in the series. New Orleans outgained Tampa Bay, 420-194, while the Saints held the ball for 40 minutes.

Playoff Notes

New Orleans and Tampa Bay are hooking up for the first time ever in the postseason, while the Saints look to improve on a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record under head coach Sean Payton at home in the second round.

The Buccaneers picked up their first playoff win since 2007 after edging Washington last week, 31-23 as 10-point favorites. Brady is undefeated in his last eight divisional round appearances, although they all came at home as a member of the Patriots. The last time Brady played on the road in the divisional round came at San Diego in 2006 as New England escaped with a 24-21 victory.

The last time Tampa Bay played in the divisional round was back in 2002, when the Bucs rolled the 49ers, 31-6 and eventually captured their first and only Super Bowl in franchise history.

TAMPA BAY (12 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) - 1/17/2021, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PLAYOFF GAMES • It has taken more points to win in the divisional
round than in the wild-card round. Last week I
explained that only two home teams that topped
20 points had lost in the last 19 years of wild-card
action. The benchmark for the divisional round is
a touch higher at 27 points, as home teams that
reach that total are 37-4 SU and 30-11 ATS since
’02, including 3-0 SU and ATS a year ago.
• Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home
teams with a 16-19 SU and 5-28-2 ATS record
since ’02 in divisional games. This year’s top four
teams scored at least 29.6 ppg in the regular
season, with Green Bay leading the league at
31.8.

The magic point total for road teams in divisional
action has proven to be 21 points, as they are 19-
19 SU and 26-12 ATS since ’02 when they reach
that mark. When scoring 14 points or fewer,
the chance of a road team winning in this round
drops dramatically to 1-19 SU and 4-15-1 ATS.
The Rams are easily the lowest-scoring road team
in this year’s lot, averaging 23.3 ppg.
• Since ’02, the offensive potency of the road team
typically controls the total result. When road
teams in the divisional round score 24 points or
more, Over is 26-4. When road teams fail to
reach 17 points, Under is 20-5.

Teams that gain more yards rushing in their
divisional playoff games are 32-15-1 ATS over the
last 12 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush
for more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff
game are 20-19-1 ATS since 2010. Running the

football also proved very important in the wild-
card success recipe, even more than this.

• Putting up big passing numbers in divisional
playoff games has been a key to success, since
teams with an edge in that stat are 26-21-1 ATS
since ’09. However they were 0-4 ATS last year.
• Teams that make the most of their passing
opportunities or hit big plays have been quite
successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per

or more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff
game are 20-19-1 ATS since 2010. Running the

football also proved very important in the wild-
card success recipe, even more than this.

• Putting up big passing numbers in divisional
playoff games has been a key to success, since
teams with an edge in that stat are 26-21-1 ATS
since ’09. However they were 0-4 ATS last year.
• Teams that make the most of their passing
opportunities or hit big plays have been quite
successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per
pass attempt are on a 31-11-1 ATS run. Consider
which teams are more apt to put up big passing
plays in the matchups.

TRENDS • The outright winner owns a 26-9-1 ATS mark in
the last 36 divisional playoff games. The two most
recent win/no-cover games involved New Orleans,
which has been on both ends of those results in the
last two years. Last week’s wild-card report showed
that outright winners were on a much stronger 44-
5-1 ATS run, and they went 5-1 last weekend.
• Since the road teams last held an edge, going
3-1 in 2009, home teams are on a convincing
run of 33-11 SU and 23-20-1 ATS. Hosts are
12-7-1 ATS in the last five years, re-emphasizing
the importance not only of home-field advantage

but of the extra week of rest and health that
comes with securing a bye in the wild-card round.
Of course, for 2021, only the two No. 1 seeds
enjoyed the luxury of resting last weekend.
• Only four road teams have been favored in the
last 24 years of the divisional playoffs, and San
Francisco is the only one to win in that scenario,
beating Carolina 23-10 in 2014. The other three
lost outright and ATS, including Atlanta, which
came up short 15-10 as a field-goal favorite at
No. 1-seeded Philadelphia in 2018. Unless we see
a heavy late swing in the Buffalo-Baltimore game,
this trend will go untested in 2021.
• Point spreads have proven to be a strong
giveaway as to which team should win divisional

playoff games. Home favorites of 5.5 points or
fewer (or underdogs) are just 13-9 SU and 9-13
ATS since ’06, while those laying six points or

more are 26-11 SU and 17-19-1 ATS in that span.
That’s a difference of a little over 11% outright.
• Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round
are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge. Tennessee’s upset
of Baltimore last year is the only conflicting result
in that group.
• Road teams have proven worthy bets in the
divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5
to +9.5 range, going 21-13-1 ATS in the last 35
tries (11-24 SU). However, both teams lost in this
scenario a year ago. The Rams (+7) are the only
underdogs that figure to qualify.
• In intradivisional games in this playoff round, road
teams are on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge. Tampa