Super Bowl 58 Chiefs / Niners

NFL Regular Season Record: +64.75 units
NFL Playoffs Record:  7-5, +6.0 units

Niners -2 (2 units)

Short and sweet....  Not much of an edge here.  Makes my playoff criteria for a bet but probably wouldnt during the regular season.  I do think the line will move to 1.5 or 1 closer to gametime - but wanted to get this up now.

I realize this is not the sexy thing to post - with 500 unit wagers and other posters all but guaranteeing their firstborn - but you will always get the straight shot from me.

This just isnt a game to go nuts on for me.  Happy to discuss.

GL all - great season.  Looking forward to the Euros in June!

Also...  Props...

I have largely ignored props for years because of low limits.  In relation to my unit size, I cant get enough down on props to make it worth my time.

But at the encouragement of several of my respected buddies in the gambling space - I took another look...  And while I still haven't jumped ship yet - I am getting closer (maybe next year).

One note...   Almost every edge I have identified lies in two areas:  unders and big favorites

Will an onsides kick be recovered at -40-1 is just crazy value.  Yes, you have to lay 40 to win 1, but it should be priced closer to 300-1.  There was 1 onsides kick recovered this season.  There are a lot of props similarly priced with value.

The average guy wants to bet small and win big.  They dont want to bet big and win small.  They also bet overs.  Player overs, yard overs, FG overs - every over.

Just some observations.

GL

Keep taking shots at the old man ! 

500 unit plays , 11 and 2 , 84.6 % 

hitting a nerve I guess 

when u learn what a chip shot fg is in football

When u learn that a team is actually on their side of the 50 and not the oppositions side 

Maybe u should learn what the down and distance actually is before attacking a super bowl coach’s decision 

And why field position is obviously relavent

let me know ! SPECIALIST ! 

im an old nut job ! Thank god ! 

Same side Van-  bought the dip at -1 and moneyline.  Although for me, it’s a bigger play than normal as I see value on the Niners.  I don’t play totals but would lean under on this one.  

Best of luck.  Great season regardless 

  Van 

Yeah Euro's not to far away now  some of my favourite leagues in Europe still on Winter Break   not back til March 

What do you make of both QB's to throw an interception each at +240 dbl parlay (singles are about -115, -120 each) 

2 or more interceptions for either players is in and around +425

Are you OK?

@vanzack

Am I ok u ask ?

Are you a doctor also ?

Is that another field u specialize in ? 

I’m not the one who thinks a 49 yard fg is a chip shot , u are , lol 

I’m not the one who doesn’t know what side of the 50 the team with the ball is on , u are , lol 

I’m not the one who says it’s 4th and 4 with 4 plus on the clock and criticizes a super bowl coaches punt call 

Meanwhile it’s really 4th and 14 ! Lol

Im just fine !

Have a beautiful day SPECIALIST ! 

I am not your doc, but maybe talk to your doc about doubling your prozac?

Thanks Van for another profitable year and best to you.

@vanzack

She probably should also consider getting on the many lonely and lazy women are doing it these days  

Good luck Van.  

Jdmoney said the guy has dementia. The admitted to him he is in his 70s and sometimes not the best with his mind

He seems like it, thats why I am taking it easy.

I wish him peace.

@KTriple

 I thought it was Joe Biden for a minute with all the babbling.

@vanzack

 Glad you took Niners, I dislike betting against my team, though I took GB and Det. with points.

You have any thoughts on KC FH in case 49ers decide to take FH off again?

GL on last game, thanks for a great year.

VZ , Good Luck , bud  

Love to see van on the niners

Gonna go with a the quad double action trian teaser.....

I already got KC +9/O40.5 and KC +9/U54.5.....and I also assumed this line would drop to SF -1 or maybe even a pk em.....which would be ideal to come back with SF teasers.....

What other props are you looking at? While I understand they are a waste of your time, I assume once a year you could make a few wagers just to "have fun".....

Its no turkey cannonball in the pool though....

Trian = train

@vanzack

 Hey van,

Couple questions-

what do you think of the line and where do you have it? Using a few different methods I have San Fran as the favorite at 3 different numbers- SF-1, SF-3.6, SF-5.2. Averaging out to around SF -3.25 so possibly a no play or small play for me. Just curious to see how you came around to making it a worthy play.

Also- score prediction? 

Great season thanks for always helping out around here!

I have SF -1 already,

even soon?