Super Bowl 58 Pick - MUST READ

Niners -2

In the NFL, there has been MANY cases where one team looks good (in this case KC), and the other team does not quite look good (in this case Niners) and then flipping the script and having the team that didn't look very good come out and show up the next game.  Tell me you do not agree with this. 

KC goes on the ROAD their last 2 playoff games as a dog and win convincingly against 2 of the best teams in the AFC.  Meanwhile, SF plays 2 HOME games as a strong favorite and struggles against two teams to barely win those games with the help of turnovers and such. The luck factor was quite high and in their favor in both games.

It would be easy to deduce that KC is the play right?  WRONG.  This is what gets gamblers every time. Putting too much weight into what they have seen the previous 1-2 games.  If betting were this easy, folks would be winning all the time yet that is not the case.  Majority of folks are losers for the reason described above.

There comes a time where people need to break away from their typical method of selecting which side to pick.  Insanity comes from doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  Picking SF in this case is changing that thinking.  Rolling w/ the Niners here.

I believe the technical term for this kind of handicapping is “The Costanza” 

BOL 

The disrespect for San Francisco 49ers is crazy to me considering how bad Mahomes has played this season compared to all his previous years… like San Francisco is just going to lay down because of the Spags defense..                                                                                                you can bring a horse to water..             Nice to see you posting 

Good Luck Cal

Good luck, but I refuse to bet against Mahomes...

@CalBear2009

Nice post CB   

You are right on in your description of essentially buying low and selling high..... you never want to "buy high" and "sell low".   In this case, you have the Chiefs at the all-time "buying high" moment and the Niners probably their 2nd or 3rd "buying low" moment of the year.  Sell KC and buy SF is a good angle yes.  I would argue if this wasn't the Super Bowl one would put much more stock into this buy low / sell high scenario.  That is, if this was the regular season I would be much more inclined to the sell side of KC and buy side of the Niners.  Being it the Super Bowl, one game winner take all, I feel this mantra holds less weight than it does throughout the course of an 18 week season.  Just one person's opinion....again, good to see you posting.  

I was hoping they would struggle / non cover for public perception.  They sure looked awful the looked great in both 2nd half games. 

"level of disrespect" lmao.  The only people trying to create disrespect are Niners fans.  "Against all odds".  Give me a break jfc.  Niners were favorites in every single game this year.  Every game.  They've been SB favorites or co/favs ALL SEASON.  

The books opened them up -2.5 FAVORITES.  What is the line now?  -2.5 / -2 / -1.5 basically is what you can get out there.  Where is all the heavy steam of disrespectful KC money moving this line to a PK or, gasp, KC -1 ???    

Like I said, nobody is disrespecting this SF team except for those SF fans calling for the disrespect..... 

[Quote: Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg]"level of disrespect"

@CalBear2009

 The average bettor, the "Public" does think like that and during the regular season I would 100% agree with you, I look for those situations to fade when everyone else is onboard. But it is the Super Bowl, a little different game. I remember betting against Tom Brady and the Patriots early on only to lose. I told myself, no matter what, I'm not going against this guy in a big game anymore and of course that paid off handsomely for me. The Patriots didn't always look like champions, they had their struggles too, but they almost always won the big game. For that reason and how Mahomes has been so good in the postseason, I can't put much stock into what often applies in the regular season. Mahomes is about as close to Brady as anyone will get under the bright lights. No sir, not going against Andy Reid, Kelce, Chris Jones and his underrated defense, and of course Patrick Mahomes in the big game. They defy all else and find a way to win, just like one Tom Brady did. Best of luck in your plays!

I don’t think the buy sell high/low works in the Super Bowl even if so….

The only ones spitting “disrespect” is niner fans & there backers 

Niners have been the favorite or 2nd fav all season to win it all? 

Have the niners been a dog this season at all? 

I don’t think they have but not positive 

I respect your post but I disagree.  You also are a bit biased I would imagine from your handle .

Mahomes has been on this stage, a few times already, and as good as Purdy and McCafferty are, they have not been here before.  I understand that Coach Shanahan has been, but he also is now 0-1, losing to Mahomes, Kelce, and Reid already.  

The spread has ticked up, so I'm not sure how anyone thinks the public is not betting up SF.  After all, the game is in Vegas so imagine how much action/dollars has to come in for that spread to even move a mere 1/2 a point.

At the end of the day, there will be one champion and one runner up.  Many people will be elated, and many people disappointed.  But this is NOT a stock market and the Ravens were, and still are in my opinion, the best NFL team this year.  They couldn't get it done against Andy Reid and part of it was, well, because of Andy Reid.  On the other hand, they went into SF and blasted them.

I understand this is a different game, on a neutral field, with SF most likely garnering the lions share of support.  But I also understand it's Mahomes under center and I personally dont' want to bet against him, the same way I hated betting against Duke when Coach K was at the helm.

Good luck, I'll be posting my play in a bit

I really feel KC should win this game but line is just too weird.

Shouldn't KC be favored by 3?

Yes.

Brady went 3-6 ATS in his Super Bowls with the Patriots. Not once did he ever put points on the board in the 1st quarter and he threw interceptions in six of those games.

What he said...

@MrBator

 9 AFC championships, 1 NFC, and 7 Super Bowls. Was referring to winning and no one was better in big games. Over 3000 yds, 21TDs, only 6 pix in 10 Super Bowls, criticize all you want, the numbers don't lie.

@MrBator

 And to go one step further Brady was 35-12 SU in the playoffs, 25-21-1 ATS postseason, and 2-0 as a dog in the Super Bowl, vs Rams 2002, and vs these Chiefs 2020 with TB of course.

Brady did suck ATS in the Superbowls. Silverstones? Isn't it about time you weighed in?  Brady didn't do it alone, he had those fine Belichick defenses behind him too. 

@CalBear2009

 Enjoyed your writeup, you make some excellent points. 

GL CB 

you’re out of your mind lol.  The oddsmakers aren’t disrespecting the niners, the public are, the morons on this board that think this is kc easy money are, and the media and talking heads all are.  Just cause they are favorites, doesn’t mean they aren’t being disrespected.  Take 5 mins to read this forum or watch super bowl coverage on tv and you will see plenty disrespect. 

@Mr Bator, do you lean or are you on the Niners -2/ML?

@CalBear2009

 It took me many years to finally realize to never bet against Brady, not making the same mistake with Mahommes. Yall riding 49ers like they are a powerhouse is hilarious, they should have lost the past two weeks against GB / Lions. 

@RavensOsNHoes

 Like the Ravens did. 

The 49ers are the favorite and yes you make a valid point on gamblers predicating their pick on what the team did last week. I like KC because I think their better team , experience wise they have been there 3 times in a row and Mahomes is the best vs Purdy who is not in the same universe . KC wins and gets their 3rd ring .