Super Bowl LV betting trends: Andy Reid rarely loses after a Bye week

Here’s more content everyone can argue, talk or whine about either way: 

Ahead of this week's Super Bowl LV matchup between the Chiefs (-3.5) and Buccaneers, seemingly every trend favors Tom Brady in this spot - from fading defending champions to betting on wild-card teams and clubs seeking revenge to Brady's own success as an underdog.

If there's anything scarier than betting against Brady, though, it might be fading Andy Reid off a bye week.

Since he became a head coach in 1999, Reid is a phenomenal 27-5 straight up and 21-11 against the spread when he has an extra week to prepare for an opponent, per Sports Database. He's 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in those spots in the playoffs, including 2-0 ATS in his two Super Bowl appearances.

Here's a look at how Reid's teams have performed in those nine postseason games after a week off:

Season            MATCH UP              RESULT  SU   ATS

2020      Chiefs (-8.0) vs. Browns    22-17      W     L

2019      Chiefs (-10.0) vs. Texans   51-31      W     L

2018      Chiefs (-1.5) vs. 49ers        31-20      W     W

2016.     Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Colts         31-13      W     W

2004      Eagles (+7.0) vs Patriots   21-24.       L      L    

2004.     Eagles (-9.5) vs. Vikings     27-14      W     W

2003.     Eagles (-4.5) vs. Packers    20-17      W     L

2002.     Eagles (-7.5) vs. Falcons     20-6       W     W

In three years with Patrick Mahomes as his starting quarterback, Reid is a perfect 7-0 SU with four ATS wins off a bye week, outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game. That includes last year's Super Bowl when the Chiefs erased a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to beat the 49ers by 11 points.

While Reid is hailed as an offensive visionary, his success when given extra prep time has been fueled by defense. In those 34 games off a bye, Reid's teams have held opponents to 16.1 points per contest - a full 4.4 points lower than in all other games. That's helped spur a 24-7-1 record to the under in those spots, including 8-1 in the postseason and 2-0 in the Super Bowl.

Perhaps the most incredible feat is how his teams perform in this spot when favored by at least three points, posting an absurd 19-1 record with a 12-8 ATS mark. That should be of particular interest to moneyline bettors - when Reid gets extra time for a game his team should win, he almost never loses.

Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians is 6-2 SU coming off a bye week but just 3-4-1 ATS in that spot, including 0-1 ATS in his lone playoff appearance off rest. He'll have his work cut out for him against Reid, whom bettors can trust to take advantage of the Super Bowl bye week.

If you are leaning Chiefs, I think for once you will have to do an ml bet, Mac. 

@begginerboy 

I'm still pondering this Sundays SuperBowl just throwing some more content out here I've read

Theres 4/5 days left for me to decide I'll leave it it that

@MAC

@begginerboy

 wait on the ML, you should be able to get -150 come closer to sunday 

We don’t care who wins, we wanna know who COVERS! 

Whats his secret...

@Macwestie1

 Thanks for the read 

What’s his record after 2byeweeks?

just giving you a hard time Mac Good luck Buddy

@zebrakiller 

 Thanks mah man my bad shoulda double checked my 2 finger typing sucks hehe

Kinda like the fact they didn’t cover against browns , odds would be with you in the super bowl after a bye.  

You remember when Madden was 8-2 predicting the super bowl winner? Came back down to earth after that. 2-4 since then when everyone caught on.

The more you increase the sample, the closer you'll end up to reverting to the mean. 

So he’s like 25-8 SU after a bye. Vs Tom Brady he’s 1-0 ATS but 0-1 SU

Comparing a week off during the regular season to a week off before the Super Bowl? Not quite the same thing.