Thanks for all the nice comments.....very nice,....obviously the objective is to bring home the bacon and have the Chiefs win the game in a week and a half.
I did this all last football season with very good results, posting on covers, and have only done this for the playoffs this season. I established an online handicapping business off the success of last season, and the NFL season went surprisingly not too good, though the college football season was very good, using similar angles.
I am probably a bit superstitious now about this now, as when I've shared things here on covers the results have been very good.....will probably continue to do so for NFL into the future.
When you share a betting methodology online you are revealing who you are as a handicapper....it can be scary, because when you have those inevitable losses it looks bad....every loss with a detailed explanation behind your pick makes it seem worse than putting out a pick with no rationale behind what you are doing and who you are picking.
When Tom Brady was coming up through the ranks, he had a coach tell him...."Never complain, and never explain."
Here, we are doing a whole of "explaining".......lol.......
2
Thanks for all the nice comments.....very nice,....obviously the objective is to bring home the bacon and have the Chiefs win the game in a week and a half.
I did this all last football season with very good results, posting on covers, and have only done this for the playoffs this season. I established an online handicapping business off the success of last season, and the NFL season went surprisingly not too good, though the college football season was very good, using similar angles.
I am probably a bit superstitious now about this now, as when I've shared things here on covers the results have been very good.....will probably continue to do so for NFL into the future.
When you share a betting methodology online you are revealing who you are as a handicapper....it can be scary, because when you have those inevitable losses it looks bad....every loss with a detailed explanation behind your pick makes it seem worse than putting out a pick with no rationale behind what you are doing and who you are picking.
When Tom Brady was coming up through the ranks, he had a coach tell him...."Never complain, and never explain."
Here, we are doing a whole of "explaining".......lol.......
When those two angles above are combined, the team with the lesser record this year, and the higher winning percentage last season, those teams have gone 6-1 ATS (+2.86).......6-1 straight up (+5.29)
Very interesting. Can you tell us which seven Super Bowls those were?
0
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
When those two angles above are combined, the team with the lesser record this year, and the higher winning percentage last season, those teams have gone 6-1 ATS (+2.86).......6-1 straight up (+5.29)
Very interesting. Can you tell us which seven Super Bowls those were?
When angles A and D are combined...the lesser full season winning percentage plus the least amount of wins out of their past 10 games in relation to their present superbowl opponent the against the spread record has been 13-1 ATS
That's remarkable that those 14 situations all took place within a span of just 19 Super Bowls. Not only that, it's also remarkable that the only qualifying team that failed was the Atlanta Falcons, who lost Super Bowl 51 in the most unbelievable fashion.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
When angles A and D are combined...the lesser full season winning percentage plus the least amount of wins out of their past 10 games in relation to their present superbowl opponent the against the spread record has been 13-1 ATS
That's remarkable that those 14 situations all took place within a span of just 19 Super Bowls. Not only that, it's also remarkable that the only qualifying team that failed was the Atlanta Falcons, who lost Super Bowl 51 in the most unbelievable fashion.
Taking the team with the least amount of wins over their past 10 games has gone 16-3 ATS in the Super Bowl
Wow. In addition to the choking Falcons of Super Bowl 51 being responsible for one of these 3 ATS losses, the other two ATS losses got pinned on the Niners and the Eagles by none other than....Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs who overcame this angle in Super Bowls 54 and 57. And now Mr. Mahomes and the Chiefs have this angle working in their favor. Wow.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Taking the team with the least amount of wins over their past 10 games has gone 16-3 ATS in the Super Bowl
Wow. In addition to the choking Falcons of Super Bowl 51 being responsible for one of these 3 ATS losses, the other two ATS losses got pinned on the Niners and the Eagles by none other than....Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs who overcame this angle in Super Bowls 54 and 57. And now Mr. Mahomes and the Chiefs have this angle working in their favor. Wow.
I am a fanboy of indigo (going on 3 years). He is the ultimate gentleman and will go to the trouble of explaining things.
My take away has been to prop up historical, situational trends in my priorities. Having a data base for reference (1989) will sometimes reveal situations where
Vegas has continually mishandled the line. This shows up depending on your queries and how adept you are with SDQL protocols.These unique queries
are limitless and after being a punter for 5 decades feel better about my approach now than ever. TAKE THE TIME TO LEARN SDQL!!
I understand about the universe not behaving nicely when going pay as way back in the day I used a program Mr.Football and posted a 56-18 ats over 2 years
Went pay as cashpix with a 750 USD fee and proceeded to a 56% success, sold the domain. Apparently regression applies to cappers as well
as NFL teams. Vegas recognizing the value of teasers now is a shame,my research in my regression model was very promising. Will continue next year with
improved bet sizing
Again THANK YOU professor for your kindness and wisdom not only in football but in LIFE.
3
I am a fanboy of indigo (going on 3 years). He is the ultimate gentleman and will go to the trouble of explaining things.
My take away has been to prop up historical, situational trends in my priorities. Having a data base for reference (1989) will sometimes reveal situations where
Vegas has continually mishandled the line. This shows up depending on your queries and how adept you are with SDQL protocols.These unique queries
are limitless and after being a punter for 5 decades feel better about my approach now than ever. TAKE THE TIME TO LEARN SDQL!!
I understand about the universe not behaving nicely when going pay as way back in the day I used a program Mr.Football and posted a 56-18 ats over 2 years
Went pay as cashpix with a 750 USD fee and proceeded to a 56% success, sold the domain. Apparently regression applies to cappers as well
as NFL teams. Vegas recognizing the value of teasers now is a shame,my research in my regression model was very promising. Will continue next year with
improved bet sizing
Again THANK YOU professor for your kindness and wisdom not only in football but in LIFE.
Jowchoo probably said it more eloquently, but I think you needn't be superstitious about it. It stands to reason that with sports in general and the NFL in particular being up-and-down leagues, it is inevitable that when cappers do well enough in a season to attract fees for their picks, they inevitably do less well the following season.
2
@Indigo999
Jowchoo probably said it more eloquently, but I think you needn't be superstitious about it. It stands to reason that with sports in general and the NFL in particular being up-and-down leagues, it is inevitable that when cappers do well enough in a season to attract fees for their picks, they inevitably do less well the following season.
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: When those two angles above are combined, the team with the lesser record this year, and the higher winning percentage last season, those teams have gone 6-1 ATS (+2.86).......6-1 straight up (+5.29) Very interesting. Can you tell us which seven Super Bowls those were?
The query text for that is below...
tA(W)<oA(W) and not C and playoffs=1 and PRSW>o:PRSW
The loser was the Raiders versus the Bucs, which means from 2005 onwards this has been 6-0 ATS.
Results
2003 Raiders -4 44 Bucs 21-48
2006 Steelers -4 47 Seahawks 21-10
2007 Colts -7 48 Bears 29-17
2011 Packers -2' 45 Steelers 31-25
2016 Broncos 4 44 Panthers 24-10
2019 Patriots -2' 55' Rams 13-3
2021 Chiefs -1' 53' 49ers 31-20
0
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: When those two angles above are combined, the team with the lesser record this year, and the higher winning percentage last season, those teams have gone 6-1 ATS (+2.86).......6-1 straight up (+5.29) Very interesting. Can you tell us which seven Super Bowls those were?
The query text for that is below...
tA(W)<oA(W) and not C and playoffs=1 and PRSW>o:PRSW
The loser was the Raiders versus the Bucs, which means from 2005 onwards this has been 6-0 ATS.
Dogs that had the lesser last 10 game record relative to their present opponent have gone 88-55 ATS in the playoffs....
as:
a) home dogs 9-5-2 ATS
b) away dogs 68-48-3 ATS
c) neutral site dogs 11-2 ATS......ON Chiefs
Something to put away for future reference.....the less hot team as a dog in the playoffs will play a team that is ready to regress, and we saw some HUGE regression type performances out of Dallas and Baltimore. For playoff performance and betting purposes, we'd rather our team limp into the playoffs as the Chiefs have done.
If we use whole season stats the results are not as good....in conference playoff games a team with the lesser (whole season) winning percentage has been 113-94-4, 54.6%, and the lesser record relative to their present opponent their last 10 games played has been 76-53-5 ATS, 58.9%
Query text below for the last 10 games each team has played....using either killersports or gimmethedog. (Both are free sites.)
D and tS(W, N=10)<oS(W, N=10) and C and playoffs=1
Query text for using whole season stats.....
D and tA(W)<oA(W) and C and playoffs=1
0
Dogs that had the lesser last 10 game record relative to their present opponent have gone 88-55 ATS in the playoffs....
as:
a) home dogs 9-5-2 ATS
b) away dogs 68-48-3 ATS
c) neutral site dogs 11-2 ATS......ON Chiefs
Something to put away for future reference.....the less hot team as a dog in the playoffs will play a team that is ready to regress, and we saw some HUGE regression type performances out of Dallas and Baltimore. For playoff performance and betting purposes, we'd rather our team limp into the playoffs as the Chiefs have done.
If we use whole season stats the results are not as good....in conference playoff games a team with the lesser (whole season) winning percentage has been 113-94-4, 54.6%, and the lesser record relative to their present opponent their last 10 games played has been 76-53-5 ATS, 58.9%
Query text below for the last 10 games each team has played....using either killersports or gimmethedog. (Both are free sites.)
D and tS(W, N=10)<oS(W, N=10) and C and playoffs=1
Friend of mine sent me this. Is he correct? a) the team with the worse record entering the Super Bowl is 18-2-1 ATS since 1995. b) Teams in the Super Bowl that played in the Wild Card round are 12-1-1 in the Super Bowl
Well Lumpy we can check it....as I have said, my database goes back to 2002 for the playoffs and 1989 for the regular season.
We've already checked that the team with the lesser winning percentage has been 16-2 ATS (+6.67) , and 12-6 straight up (+3.72)
As a dog they've been 11-1 ATS (+9.88), 7-5 straight up (+3.67)
If the line is between -4 and +4 those teams have gone 5-1 ATS (+8.25), 5-1 straight up (+7.8)
Now, out of all the angles I've looked at, here is one going against KC...those teams that played in three or more playoff games last season have gone 2-5 ATS (-6.79) and 3-4 straight up (-3.00).....VERSUS Chiefs
Those that played two playoff games exact have gone 7-4 ATS, 7-4 straight up (+2.36)....ON 49ers.
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Quote Originally Posted by lumpy701:
Friend of mine sent me this. Is he correct? a) the team with the worse record entering the Super Bowl is 18-2-1 ATS since 1995. b) Teams in the Super Bowl that played in the Wild Card round are 12-1-1 in the Super Bowl
Well Lumpy we can check it....as I have said, my database goes back to 2002 for the playoffs and 1989 for the regular season.
We've already checked that the team with the lesser winning percentage has been 16-2 ATS (+6.67) , and 12-6 straight up (+3.72)
As a dog they've been 11-1 ATS (+9.88), 7-5 straight up (+3.67)
If the line is between -4 and +4 those teams have gone 5-1 ATS (+8.25), 5-1 straight up (+7.8)
Now, out of all the angles I've looked at, here is one going against KC...those teams that played in three or more playoff games last season have gone 2-5 ATS (-6.79) and 3-4 straight up (-3.00).....VERSUS Chiefs
Those that played two playoff games exact have gone 7-4 ATS, 7-4 straight up (+2.36)....ON 49ers.
Hmmm, 49ers actually played in three playoff games last season, NOT two....favorites in the Super Bowl have been 1-4 ATS (-9.70), 2-3 straight up (-4.00) if they played in three playoff games and they've been 1-1 as a dog, with the Chiefs winning last season in this situation.
Sorry about the miscalculation.
Here's another pretty interesting angle....a Super Bowl dog that averages at least 3 points a game less than their Super Bowl opponent has gone 7-1 ATS (+16.81), 6-2 straight up (+9.88)
tA(points)-oA(points)<-3 and D and not C and playoffs=1
The only loss was the game the Seahawks threw an interception at the goal line to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
0
Hmmm, 49ers actually played in three playoff games last season, NOT two....favorites in the Super Bowl have been 1-4 ATS (-9.70), 2-3 straight up (-4.00) if they played in three playoff games and they've been 1-1 as a dog, with the Chiefs winning last season in this situation.
Sorry about the miscalculation.
Here's another pretty interesting angle....a Super Bowl dog that averages at least 3 points a game less than their Super Bowl opponent has gone 7-1 ATS (+16.81), 6-2 straight up (+9.88)
tA(points)-oA(points)<-3 and D and not C and playoffs=1
The only loss was the game the Seahawks threw an interception at the goal line to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
[Quote: Originally Posted by lumpy701]Friend of mine sent me this. Is he correct? a) the team with the worse record entering the Super Bowl is 18-2-1 ATS since 1995. b) Teams in the Super Bowl that played in the Wild Card round are 12-1-1 in the Super Bowl.
I missed this the first time.....yes, a team that played in the wildcard round of the playoffs, playing a team that didn't play in the wildcard round has gone 9-0 ATS (+8.50), and 7-2 straight up (+6.00) in the Super Bowl....on Chiefs
ppp:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=1 and playoffs=1 and op:playoffs=1 and opp:playoffs=1 and oppp:playoffs=0
That's a good find.....
1
[Quote: Originally Posted by lumpy701]Friend of mine sent me this. Is he correct? a) the team with the worse record entering the Super Bowl is 18-2-1 ATS since 1995. b) Teams in the Super Bowl that played in the Wild Card round are 12-1-1 in the Super Bowl.
I missed this the first time.....yes, a team that played in the wildcard round of the playoffs, playing a team that didn't play in the wildcard round has gone 9-0 ATS (+8.50), and 7-2 straight up (+6.00) in the Super Bowl....on Chiefs
ppp:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=1 and playoffs=1 and op:playoffs=1 and opp:playoffs=1 and oppp:playoffs=0
Just an fyi LOL 4-years ago today: Patrick Mahomes over/under for rush yards in Super Bowl 54 was 29.5. He had 44 yards before taking three knees to end the game of -5, -3 and -7 yards. Finished with 29 rushing yards.
and I had the 49ers, which was looking going into the 4th quarter....I also had the Falcons versus the Patriots.....lol...... and had the Chiefs in the conference final that they lost when a game clinching interception was negated by their defensive lineman being lined up offsides that would have iced the game.
The Patriots obviously were very good,...but I saw more fortuitous occurrences happen to favor the Patriots in crucial situations than could be believed....someone obviously made a faustian deal with the devil for New England, and if they don't win another Super Bowl for a hundred years, they still will have had more than their fair share of unusual good fortune.
And, after you listen to the Cardinals wide receivers versus the Patriots in New England's first Super Bowl where they won as 14 point dogs, that they could hear NE's secondary calling out the Rams' plays ahead of time, one wonders how many locker rooms were bugged and how many practices BB had videotaped.
That kind of thing that went on during Belichick's reign you would have thought would have been front page news....yet one never hears about it....and NFL Flims obviously never has made a documentary about it.....lol.
You wonder how many other things were going on besides deflategate by the Patriots.
3
Quote Originally Posted by IntenseOperator:
Just an fyi LOL 4-years ago today: Patrick Mahomes over/under for rush yards in Super Bowl 54 was 29.5. He had 44 yards before taking three knees to end the game of -5, -3 and -7 yards. Finished with 29 rushing yards.
and I had the 49ers, which was looking going into the 4th quarter....I also had the Falcons versus the Patriots.....lol...... and had the Chiefs in the conference final that they lost when a game clinching interception was negated by their defensive lineman being lined up offsides that would have iced the game.
The Patriots obviously were very good,...but I saw more fortuitous occurrences happen to favor the Patriots in crucial situations than could be believed....someone obviously made a faustian deal with the devil for New England, and if they don't win another Super Bowl for a hundred years, they still will have had more than their fair share of unusual good fortune.
And, after you listen to the Cardinals wide receivers versus the Patriots in New England's first Super Bowl where they won as 14 point dogs, that they could hear NE's secondary calling out the Rams' plays ahead of time, one wonders how many locker rooms were bugged and how many practices BB had videotaped.
That kind of thing that went on during Belichick's reign you would have thought would have been front page news....yet one never hears about it....and NFL Flims obviously never has made a documentary about it.....lol.
You wonder how many other things were going on besides deflategate by the Patriots.
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