Super Bowl tech angles

DUI throws a wrench in my KC lean....prob a no play now

KC dealing with a massive distraction now...and mahomes not fully concentrated on the game....

Why, was he on the roster?

The Chiefs specialize in distractions. Yet here they are.

@garbagetime

 Lol exactly. His dads 3rd time. Hes used to distractions. His wife. His brother. His dad. All been distractions his whole life. 

I'm not sure if KC is a losing bet but, I'm almost 95% sure Mahomes MVP bet is a Loss. So factor that into your handicapping. 

@garbagetime

bad vibes thru the entire organization....this is the exact thing u dont want to happen 1 week before the SB

reids son did the same thing few years back and guess what the result was

@dubz4dummyz

 I would argue this is offset by the different practice conditions for the two teams... both distractions but probably pretty minor all things considered.

Winning on the road is more impressive than winning at home, especially as Super Bowl parameters.

PO = 1 and p:WAD and op:WHF and site = neutral

SU:  5-2-0 (6.00, 71.4%)

ATS:  7-0-0 (11.79, 100.0%)

That is a small sample size, but that average ATS margin makes KC off a Win as an Away Dog enticing.

Good luck everybody.

If you were preparing for a big game and your dad got a DUI, would that be a distraction?

It wouldn't be.....if it was a vehicular homicide or domestic battery or something like that, maybe.

He had too much to drink and got caught driving afterwards....players drink or smoke too much pot all the time.....it is is part and parcel of normal everyday male life in their teens, 20s and 30s.....players shrug that stuff off and play a game....it's no big deal.

Saw that the NFL is having the Eagles play week one in Brazil....good on them!...that will be a spectacle they'll never forget.

What is stopping the NFL from having every team play one of their 17 regular season games in a foreign land?....Asia, Canada, Europe, Canada....I'd play one in Alaska or Hawaii.

Coworker just mentioned that Simmons is touting total carries-over 4.5 -127 for Mahomes. Which actually sounds great, except why would you take anything that Bill Simmons has broadcast

I don't think I've done a prop bet in my life....I  just am not interested.

Superbook has lifted their line on the Super Bowl to 2.5  as has fanduel, though slightly juiced there.

As usual I have gotten the less of optimal lines...getting in early has served me well in college football, but not in the NFL....those that read my posts on a regular basis know that me missing out on the better of the lines is not unusual.  It is a weakness in my arsenal that seems to be consistently an issue. 3-5% of the time it will make a difference between winning or not winning a bet.

Everyone has their weaknesses (yes, even you!) and acknowledging what it is or what they are is a necessary step towards growth.  If you don't think you have any, well, those are the narcissists of the world and wisdom dictates that we largely avoid them....I have had in the past a whole inner circle  of them and expert opinion is that if they are close like family or friends that one avoids them as they attempt and often succeed to destroy all individuals in their path, and of course there's no one closer than family....on our forum there are a few of these individuals, and one of the trademarks of a narcissist is that they love to show others how superior they are to the rest of the universe by belittling others...this kind of interaction brings pleasure to those people.

Line reading is an art and a science in and of itself.  Jesse Livermore, along with WD Gann, were the two most renowned stock market traders before 1950.  Both of them used stock market reading techniques, Livermore almost exclusively, whereas Gann, who was a freemason, used planetary cycles, angles like the square of 9, and a square root system he found while traveling to India that he would transpose onto his stock chart.

Livermore made and lost millions of dollars and in the end he shot himself in the head after losing his fortune for the last time...he wrote the seminal book on stock market trading called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator that is still widely acclaimed to this day.  

If someone came to me as a young person just starting out in life, and they wanted to be a sports bettor as a profession, I would try to talk sense into them (LOL!!) to be a stock market trader instead.   Stop losses make it so a stock market bet is not almost a double or nothing bet like a sports bet is.....one gets the benefit of being right, without as severe a punishment for being wrong.  We've seen that 4% of sports bettors are winners...that proportion is higher among stock market traders, especially one who is systematic and disciplined about it.

Anyway, we have a reverse line movement for the super bowl...the percentage of bettors is highest for the Chiefs, and yet the line is moving the opposite way.  Conventional wisdom says that this favors the team where the line is moving towards, in this case the 49ers.....except I don't adhere to conventional wisdom if I don't have a researched sample size to back up the convention.

I am not saying this is not true....however I would estimate those wisdoms in the sports betting community that people put out on the internet are false 80-90% of the time, sometimes we find that even among sports handicappers....imagine that! 

I use a database to be able to actually research whether if a statement is in fact, true, or not....unfortunately in this case there are no parameters in it to tell us what happens after a line has moved. 

I've just researched thoroughly the axiom that is is wise to go against the public and take ugly out-of-favor dogs, and have found THAT to be wisdom, exceptionally good wisdom recently.

So, for everything I've researched I get rewarded about that 20% of the time with something that can utilized to improve profitability....the rest gets thrown in the trash...not a wasted effort, because we get to eliminate something that has no basis in reality and fact that could cost us money.

Books want mote KC money very interesting 

SuperBook made that move from Chiefs +2 to +2.5 three days ago, and FanDuel has had the same Chiefs +2.5 -115 for more than a week.

@Indigo999

Sir, I have been betting sports since my ESPN days. Covered false prophets like "The Professor", Wayne Root, etc. I have played golf with Billy Walters, both as a two-man team and in our private club championships, etc. Worked with Lou Palmer from Philly who told me "in baseball, never bet against a streak. And when the streak finally loses, bet against the formerly streaking team - they will still be favorites and will lose 3 of the next 5" gems the real books, "the wise guys" in Philly pre-internet would tell him.

I have read and followed just about all of the "heavyweights" and guys who get hot, etc. here on Covers for around 8 years.

I have never been more impressed than with what I have read in this thread...You, sir, I commend you. 

the universe speaks to you......................gl sir

've just researched thoroughly the axiom that is is wise to go against the public and take ugly out-of-favor dogs, and have found THAT to be wisdom, exceptionally good wisdom recently.

Buyer's remorse?

When I have a month's worth of data I may PM you....I am seeing a trend change now, in a different arena.

They say that what you don't have as a kid is what you want/need as an adult.

Let's just say that  that kind of action means much more to me than most,........"thank you" to you and others that have shown kindness on this thread and on this forum....we never know sometimes how kindness can indeed impact someone's life for the better.  When you help others or are kind to them, you bring that back upon yourself, the metaphysical law of reciprocation.........and of course if we are hateful, jealous or arrogant, we will in turn bring that back upon ourselves as well. 

Should seem like an easy choice, but of course the human condition that is us can be complicated.

98% of those contributing on this thread have been positive, which I have a lot of gratitude for.

Let's see if on  this thread we will bring home a winner for those that are betting and of course for me also.

Good fortune this weekend....

And you'll have to tell us your gambling stories, golfing with Billy Walters, etc., from the past....bettors I think crave gambling stories!

@Indigo999

Happy to. But I do want to respect something...Lou Palmer passed away but Billy is alive, so...

I can tell you a couple...Lou's advice on baseball led to my biggest winnings ever by a long shot (like by 10x and made up for at least 15 years of so so/losing betting.)

I hopped on the Colorado Rockies at the end of August 2007, after 4 wins in a row. I only make one bet a day in baseball, and enjoy watching that game. Still do. I think it is counterproductive to bet more than one wager a day (the vig.)

I was a $200 a game better and as they kept winning, I kept increasing my bets (not doubling.) to the point where I was betting and winning $2,500 a day/game for like 15 games in a row. I won $54,000, then they lost 2 and I stopped. I cashed out $49,000. My roomates couldn't believe it as the book at the time only paid out $2,000 a day, and I had over 20 days in a row where I had a Fed Ex with a new check for $2,000 left at our door every day. By the way, I only made one bet a day, and it was Colorado every day. It was incredible!

From Wikipedia: The Rockies then swept their first seven playoff games to win the National League pennant — the franchise's first-ever pennant. Thus, at the start of the World Series, the Rockies had won a total of 21 out of 22 games. Fans and media nicknamed the Rockies improbable run in October, Rocktober.

BTW I have already ordered the book you suggested on the reporter who became a runner for Billy!

It's a very good book .

We had one poster here who said it was mostly a fabricated account....I'd be interested in hearing your opinion of whether that is the case once you've read it.