Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

Great insights, thank you for sharing Vanzack.  On the same side w/ you.

Strangely enough your predicted score of 38-16 is the exact score of SFs Superbowl win over a young Dan Marino in his first (and only) Superbowl. Just a coincidence?

I don't know about any skyway chili, I make my own and it's gooood. Won a couple local competitions, small scale but "bragging rights is bragging rights!" And my Chili's the shit!(the good shit!)

GL in your plays Van.

Dont get me wrong.  I love chili.  And I havent eaten meat for 20 years, but I love a good veggie chili - and even Impossible meat chili.

But Skyline isnt chili - is it?  I mean you are a chili guy.  Is Skyline chili to you?

I have been thinking about the post from 

@garbagetime

mentioning the similarity between my writeup for this game and my writeup for the Chiefs Bengals game, and implying (maybe) that because the Bengals won that game those reasons are invalid for this game....

And I wanted to point something out...

That was a one time event.  Every game is.  But is that game indicative of an outlier or is it indicative of a high probability outcome.  You have to assign this to every game post mortem.  The Bengals Chiefs game was a very big outlier.  If they played 1k times, that would happen extremely infrequently.  Would the Bengals win in a different way?  Yes.  

But I was serious when I said I would be the Chiefs -6.5 again tomorrow.  And the day after.  If the Bengals keep winning, then I have done something wrong - but I still say there is about a 60% cover value on the Chiefs vs the Bengals tomorrow.  Last week was just one of the forty %.

I get that most people don't like to think this way.  The result is the result - and proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the result that happened was the only result that was valid.  But it is an important skill for us sports gamblers to learn and trust - to not think of results as absolute.

Rant over.

Like how the public seeing KC beating buffalo n bet KC again and died.  

Same here.  Cinn beat KC so all of a sudden, the public likes what they be seeing.  

Can't beat luck n intangibles that no one talks about.  

Go whams

As always, great write-up, Vanzack. Is your projected score based on your simulations? If it is, it's a solid data point in the direction of line value to the over. 

@vanzack

Oh noooo, say it aint so!  

Regardless of this outcome, I want to thank you for one heck of a ride this season!    I mean that with all sincerity!  

Sounds good to me.  I mean how lucky can the Bungles really get? 

I’ve got it at 38-9. Sort of think it sneaks under. GL

DON'T GET CUTE, VAN! DON'T GET CUTE! 

In all seriousness, I agree wholeheartedly.

One thing I have not seen mentioned is the Bengals are the same price in LAR as they were in TEN just two games ago. The more I think about it, the more I think the LAR home-field edge in this game is equivalent or very close to the TEN edge in that game. Team is in their own beds and at their own facilities all week. It's just a business week. Several Bucs said after last year how the "comforts of home" that week really helped them.

That means in the macro if you are playing CIN +4 in this game you would also bet TEN pk vs LAR on a neutral field. That to me is just insane. No one would do that. Value is on the Rams.

GL and congrats on a great season!

Van - do you have your own model/algorithm for running your "monte carlo" like simulation?  Or is there a 3rd party software one can purchase that you plug and play team stats and it runs sims? 

And that Std Deviation is very high considering at 1k simulations, I would expect a pretty normalized distribution, with less variance.  Lot depends on how many variables go into your model.

Just curious - good luck.  Seems like the right side, and with the confidence you have in your model, there's some good logic behind it.

Winnnnner. Check ur requests 

Just burning people like the devil vanzacker

Bengals win!

Thanks for your posts and comments over the season, your input is always appreciated. 

Rams it is...

@vanzack

 Had it once and you are correct, it's not chili as I know it and most other Americans as well. I really keep it simple, learned from Mom of course. 

@vanzack

 GL

Smooth writeup, very well done! 

Regarding the Chiefs, I was on the same boat. The Chiefs should have blown out the Bengals, and Im with you in that if they played again Id also bet them hard. KC lost because of a stupid head coach who has never understood situational football, and has made a career being an all in aggrotard, who calls every down as if he was in a 2 minute drill needing a touchdown. 

@vanzack

  Completely agree …. Worst chilli I’ve ever had.

Kc lost because the  tv star qb ran in circles backwards , as told to

26-23 Bengals win, nice season ??

Im fully aware that the Rams have the advantage in all departments, have watched both teams all year.. 

I just have the worst feeling ever about actually betting on the Rams in this game

@scrappyb

 Slightly over.

But what I do and my analysis is not tweaked to totals.  I spend all of my energy on results.

If I bet all NFL totals this year, it would have been like 51%.

So take it for what its worth.

@nfl_brosuf

@Walt_The_Weapon

 @Zeus4par

@Skipster

@andarmac99