Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86: Every second of that game after they got up two scores was exactly what I was talking about.. the nightmare of taking the Rams because of Mcvay, and never worth the value of laying all that juice. They are fortunate they won at all U don't think not having OBJ had anything to do with that?
It was the fact that Mcvay who thinks too much completely panicked in the middle of the 3rd quarter with their play calling.. I mean did he really not have a better plan creating the run game than that for two weeks? Whenever you stop the Rams running game and they can't create off of the stretch zones from under center to open their passing game they usually lose.. They just started straight gun drops for almost the whole 2nd half and did basically nothing on offense after the first drive of 3rd quarter until the very end.. Off the top of my head I don't think they got more than one first down after that first drive out of half until the very last one. Bengals were right where they needed to be to win that game and just never capitalized on all the chances from turnovers, the Rams won because of their defense again..
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Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86: Every second of that game after they got up two scores was exactly what I was talking about.. the nightmare of taking the Rams because of Mcvay, and never worth the value of laying all that juice. They are fortunate they won at all U don't think not having OBJ had anything to do with that?
It was the fact that Mcvay who thinks too much completely panicked in the middle of the 3rd quarter with their play calling.. I mean did he really not have a better plan creating the run game than that for two weeks? Whenever you stop the Rams running game and they can't create off of the stretch zones from under center to open their passing game they usually lose.. They just started straight gun drops for almost the whole 2nd half and did basically nothing on offense after the first drive of 3rd quarter until the very end.. Off the top of my head I don't think they got more than one first down after that first drive out of half until the very last one. Bengals were right where they needed to be to win that game and just never capitalized on all the chances from turnovers, the Rams won because of their defense again..
VZ- I really have no explanation on how this game was even close. You capped it perfectly as did I. Somethings you simply cannot account for during the course of a game.
OBJ plays whole game, I believe Rams win by double digits. Losing Higbee and OBJ was huge for LA.
Higgins non-call PI, bonus TD added to board for Cincy, a 75 yard TD when Cincy got 4 total first downs the entire second half. Rams D dominated them. I hope the regression of this pos teams luck turns next season. It’s absolutely mind boggling that they were close to winning the game. Had Cincy won they would easily have been one of the worst SB champions ever if not the worst.
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VZ- I really have no explanation on how this game was even close. You capped it perfectly as did I. Somethings you simply cannot account for during the course of a game.
OBJ plays whole game, I believe Rams win by double digits. Losing Higbee and OBJ was huge for LA.
Higgins non-call PI, bonus TD added to board for Cincy, a 75 yard TD when Cincy got 4 total first downs the entire second half. Rams D dominated them. I hope the regression of this pos teams luck turns next season. It’s absolutely mind boggling that they were close to winning the game. Had Cincy won they would easily have been one of the worst SB champions ever if not the worst.
I haven't watched the game, but anybody who scrutinized the box score would know that yardage was fairly even. LAR had 5 more sacks but Stafford threw 2 INT's and Burrow, though pressured on a Super Bowl record 82% of his passes, did not throw even one. He was spectacular under pressure, overcoming the weak OFF line to at least cover the spread. That couldn't be said about Mahomes last year.
Each team punted six times, so the Under was a reasonable result.
So was a close game.
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I haven't watched the game, but anybody who scrutinized the box score would know that yardage was fairly even. LAR had 5 more sacks but Stafford threw 2 INT's and Burrow, though pressured on a Super Bowl record 82% of his passes, did not throw even one. He was spectacular under pressure, overcoming the weak OFF line to at least cover the spread. That couldn't be said about Mahomes last year.
Each team punted six times, so the Under was a reasonable result.
When you bet spreads, yo are used to and deal with this added variance. Im sure OP is more than used to it.
Now, my point to never bet favorite´s spreads is the following... Late in the game, when the Rams are down by 1 in the score, they will do absolutely anything and risk everything to get the FG or TD that takes them ahead. However, if late in the game the Rams are down by 1 in the spread but leading the game, they will do absolutely everything they can, to make sure the score ends that way.
I like betting incentives. That is why I hate and never bet favorite spreads.
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When you bet spreads, yo are used to and deal with this added variance. Im sure OP is more than used to it.
Now, my point to never bet favorite´s spreads is the following... Late in the game, when the Rams are down by 1 in the score, they will do absolutely anything and risk everything to get the FG or TD that takes them ahead. However, if late in the game the Rams are down by 1 in the spread but leading the game, they will do absolutely everything they can, to make sure the score ends that way.
I like betting incentives. That is why I hate and never bet favorite spreads.
don't know if anyone's even around, hopefully Van comes by for last call...
I had doubts in my earlier posts..and Van you clearly have a good system with a lot of work involved but there must be a strong allocation of plain stupidity besides the data and even your gut that you use along with it..It's just too strong in this game..there's too much effect from one or 2 stupid decisions let along many..or one really scared QB lie Wentz who by himself pretty much blew a 17 POINT SPREAD...one guy, come on, tell me he didn't blow that last game and even the Raiders game. Tell me McCarthy isn't the sole reason why the Raiders beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, etc, etc...and the same for the Cowboys-49ers game...
Honestly, if Taylor had any brains or whoever was calling the plays, the Bengals win by 7-10 with the way they called plays all the way back to the 4th and 1 early..a waste of a great offense when his DC is excellent and covered up a lot of warts..
I truly believe the Rams are probably the worst SB Champion in 30 years, can't really think of a worse one when you include coaching..but as I said earlier, they had the dice rolling right getting so much out of OBJ, finding a safety off the street and really the IDIOT GM who is the only one ever to win one with no draft picks and if any stupid team does the same, good luck to them in the next 10 years
Thanks for all your hard work and sharing, I really appreciate it. I think the best thing you show is look for extreme deviation so these mental things are way less effecting
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don't know if anyone's even around, hopefully Van comes by for last call...
I had doubts in my earlier posts..and Van you clearly have a good system with a lot of work involved but there must be a strong allocation of plain stupidity besides the data and even your gut that you use along with it..It's just too strong in this game..there's too much effect from one or 2 stupid decisions let along many..or one really scared QB lie Wentz who by himself pretty much blew a 17 POINT SPREAD...one guy, come on, tell me he didn't blow that last game and even the Raiders game. Tell me McCarthy isn't the sole reason why the Raiders beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, etc, etc...and the same for the Cowboys-49ers game...
Honestly, if Taylor had any brains or whoever was calling the plays, the Bengals win by 7-10 with the way they called plays all the way back to the 4th and 1 early..a waste of a great offense when his DC is excellent and covered up a lot of warts..
I truly believe the Rams are probably the worst SB Champion in 30 years, can't really think of a worse one when you include coaching..but as I said earlier, they had the dice rolling right getting so much out of OBJ, finding a safety off the street and really the IDIOT GM who is the only one ever to win one with no draft picks and if any stupid team does the same, good luck to them in the next 10 years
Thanks for all your hard work and sharing, I really appreciate it. I think the best thing you show is look for extreme deviation so these mental things are way less effecting
I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right.
On to next year.
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I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right.
I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year.
Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe.
Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs.
Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year?
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year.
Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe.
Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs.
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe. Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs. Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year?
Might as well change your name to chic clown at this point.
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Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe. Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs. Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year?
Might as well change your name to chic clown at this point.
Thanks for your post, and I totally understand. I had a very similar conversation recently with somebody via email, and rather than rewrite it - I am going to post some cut and pastes that give you the idea. I will check back to this thread if there is any follow up. The basic premise is that it is impossible to overcome the variance you describe in 1 game - or 1 instance. It is possible to overcome that variance in 1k games though. The key is exploiting an edge over a long period of time MULTIPLE TIMES. This goes 180 degrees against most gamblers who want a pick of the day.
It (quantitative analysis) is a BIG part of the starting point, but there are other subjective factors that come in to play. To counter what you say about "random shit in a game"...... is the concept of diversification. Finding an edge and repeating it 1k times for small stakes, rather than big stakes on 1 instance of an edge. The only way you can win longterm is by exploiting small edges over and over and being in the 55% range. Grinding. This is a huge barrier to most, and is why on covers you are labelled as a winner or a loser based on a few picks. Nobody there is interested in going 55% over 1k bets for 1% of their bankroll. So the go to answer is "nobody can do this".
Books are there to match action. They are concerned with line movement and collecting vig. We as sports bettors are concerned with results.
So while that makes lines the ultimate in market making crowd sourcing - if there is a difference in public belief to predictive RESULTS - thats where the edges lie. That small sliver between collective understanding (or misunderstanding) and actual results is where I try to live. Add to that.... Inefficiencies in markets (and market derivatives) because nobody is paying attention.
So in your soccer example (I am a big soccer bettor).... It is very important to know and be able to calculate house hold on 3 way betting like you mentioned. It is always there - but you have to reduce the spread and choose books and bets that have the smallest "vig". Then to make it even harder.... You have to overcome that vig - but of course it always easier to overcome a 5% vig than 10% etc.
I have a friend who finds small edges in unpopular betting pools - like Russian soccer or Pakistani cricket. I cannot argue with him that inherently he will find more edges in those markets than I find in NFL. The NFL is a much more efficient marketplace than Pakistani cricket because the crowd sourcing for NFL is a huge pool compared to a much smaller pool. But then things like limits, lack of information, etc eat away at his efficiency and success. He puts in double the work I do.
(CONTINUED)
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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@Hoyasaxa
Thanks for your post, and I totally understand. I had a very similar conversation recently with somebody via email, and rather than rewrite it - I am going to post some cut and pastes that give you the idea. I will check back to this thread if there is any follow up. The basic premise is that it is impossible to overcome the variance you describe in 1 game - or 1 instance. It is possible to overcome that variance in 1k games though. The key is exploiting an edge over a long period of time MULTIPLE TIMES. This goes 180 degrees against most gamblers who want a pick of the day.
It (quantitative analysis) is a BIG part of the starting point, but there are other subjective factors that come in to play. To counter what you say about "random shit in a game"...... is the concept of diversification. Finding an edge and repeating it 1k times for small stakes, rather than big stakes on 1 instance of an edge. The only way you can win longterm is by exploiting small edges over and over and being in the 55% range. Grinding. This is a huge barrier to most, and is why on covers you are labelled as a winner or a loser based on a few picks. Nobody there is interested in going 55% over 1k bets for 1% of their bankroll. So the go to answer is "nobody can do this".
Books are there to match action. They are concerned with line movement and collecting vig. We as sports bettors are concerned with results.
So while that makes lines the ultimate in market making crowd sourcing - if there is a difference in public belief to predictive RESULTS - thats where the edges lie. That small sliver between collective understanding (or misunderstanding) and actual results is where I try to live. Add to that.... Inefficiencies in markets (and market derivatives) because nobody is paying attention.
So in your soccer example (I am a big soccer bettor).... It is very important to know and be able to calculate house hold on 3 way betting like you mentioned. It is always there - but you have to reduce the spread and choose books and bets that have the smallest "vig". Then to make it even harder.... You have to overcome that vig - but of course it always easier to overcome a 5% vig than 10% etc.
I have a friend who finds small edges in unpopular betting pools - like Russian soccer or Pakistani cricket. I cannot argue with him that inherently he will find more edges in those markets than I find in NFL. The NFL is a much more efficient marketplace than Pakistani cricket because the crowd sourcing for NFL is a huge pool compared to a much smaller pool. But then things like limits, lack of information, etc eat away at his efficiency and success. He puts in double the work I do.
NFL derivative markets are also great. I posted last week about key numbers (a thought that almost nobody at covers is very interested in).... But there are lots of ways to bet alt spreads and NFL derivatives that can give you edges. I find that the closer you understand those things, the more you can put the edges in your favor. Like am I better laying -7 at -110 for this specific game or -5 at -130 or -9 at +130. Nobody thinks this way. They don't look at comparative value when deciding what to bet - the book spoonfeeds them a line and they chose a side. In the example above..... For one game on one day it might be better to take the -9 +130, and on another day with different teams -5 at -130. This is the secret sauce. This is where you make money - because there are times you cannot get value at the "primary" line, but because of std deviations or other factors there is value at a different line.
The books have not adjusted to variable lines for alt lines. This is a very important thing to understand. Surely - the real value of buying or selling a half point in the NFL cannot be 10 cents in every case, all the time. But that is the price. It is because there aren't enough people exploiting it yet. The key is being able to somewhat put a value on these half points, and figuring out which spread at which price is the MOST value - and hopefully that is +EV.
Most look at an NFL result as a loss or a win. I laid -4, they won by 20, I win! But I look at that as a missed opportunity. If a team wins by 20, and I only gave 4, I start to wonder how to maximize my odds so that I can get paid what I deserve. The guy that laid 4 got paid laying -110, but the guy who laid -19.5 got paid +20-1. How can you get closer to laying the right amount every time? That is what I concentrate on a lot.
On your soccer bet..... You were betting a 3 way line. But on the 2 way line, you always have these choices also. And it is the same situation as the NFL. For a quarter goal, most of the time it is about 30 cents. Should it ALWAYS be that price in EVERY case? Of course not. If the over under of that match is 2, isnt a quarter goal worth more than if the total is 5?
I dont disagree with your initial premise for your book that betting NFL primary lines at -110 is tough to beat year on year. But that isnt what people are doing to make money in this business. It is what Covers does, and what almost everyone out there does - but this is not the way.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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NFL derivative markets are also great. I posted last week about key numbers (a thought that almost nobody at covers is very interested in).... But there are lots of ways to bet alt spreads and NFL derivatives that can give you edges. I find that the closer you understand those things, the more you can put the edges in your favor. Like am I better laying -7 at -110 for this specific game or -5 at -130 or -9 at +130. Nobody thinks this way. They don't look at comparative value when deciding what to bet - the book spoonfeeds them a line and they chose a side. In the example above..... For one game on one day it might be better to take the -9 +130, and on another day with different teams -5 at -130. This is the secret sauce. This is where you make money - because there are times you cannot get value at the "primary" line, but because of std deviations or other factors there is value at a different line.
The books have not adjusted to variable lines for alt lines. This is a very important thing to understand. Surely - the real value of buying or selling a half point in the NFL cannot be 10 cents in every case, all the time. But that is the price. It is because there aren't enough people exploiting it yet. The key is being able to somewhat put a value on these half points, and figuring out which spread at which price is the MOST value - and hopefully that is +EV.
Most look at an NFL result as a loss or a win. I laid -4, they won by 20, I win! But I look at that as a missed opportunity. If a team wins by 20, and I only gave 4, I start to wonder how to maximize my odds so that I can get paid what I deserve. The guy that laid 4 got paid laying -110, but the guy who laid -19.5 got paid +20-1. How can you get closer to laying the right amount every time? That is what I concentrate on a lot.
On your soccer bet..... You were betting a 3 way line. But on the 2 way line, you always have these choices also. And it is the same situation as the NFL. For a quarter goal, most of the time it is about 30 cents. Should it ALWAYS be that price in EVERY case? Of course not. If the over under of that match is 2, isnt a quarter goal worth more than if the total is 5?
I dont disagree with your initial premise for your book that betting NFL primary lines at -110 is tough to beat year on year. But that isnt what people are doing to make money in this business. It is what Covers does, and what almost everyone out there does - but this is not the way.
I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year.
I am going to use a very rudimentary example of this... But to illustrate a point....
If you were playing roullette, and the wheel only had 10 numbers - the chances of you getting the right number is 9-1. But if you are getting paid 12-1, you really don't have to be very good at predicting the outcome of the spin.
Get your bets in at the sportsbook on the 12-1 example above. And do it many many times. That is the key. This is the way to overcome the variance.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year.
I am going to use a very rudimentary example of this... But to illustrate a point....
If you were playing roullette, and the wheel only had 10 numbers - the chances of you getting the right number is 9-1. But if you are getting paid 12-1, you really don't have to be very good at predicting the outcome of the spin.
Get your bets in at the sportsbook on the 12-1 example above. And do it many many times. That is the key. This is the way to overcome the variance.
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe. Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs. Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year? Might as well change your name to chic clown at this point.
Because you have no answer for the challenge I bring to your mind
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe. Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs. Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year? Might as well change your name to chic clown at this point.
Because you have no answer for the challenge I bring to your mind
When you bet spreads, yo are used to and deal with this added variance. Im sure OP is more than used to it. Now, my point to never bet favorite´s spreads is the following... Late in the game, when the Rams are down by 1 in the score, they will do absolutely anything and risk everything to get the FG or TD that takes them ahead. However, if late in the game the Rams are down by 1 in the spread but leading the game, they will do absolutely everything they can, to make sure the score ends that way. I like betting incentives. That is why I hate and never bet favorite spreads.
Sharp.
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Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:
When you bet spreads, yo are used to and deal with this added variance. Im sure OP is more than used to it. Now, my point to never bet favorite´s spreads is the following... Late in the game, when the Rams are down by 1 in the score, they will do absolutely anything and risk everything to get the FG or TD that takes them ahead. However, if late in the game the Rams are down by 1 in the spread but leading the game, they will do absolutely everything they can, to make sure the score ends that way. I like betting incentives. That is why I hate and never bet favorite spreads.
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe. Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs. Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year? Might as well change your name to chic clown at this point. Because you have no answer for the challenge I bring to your mind
Please keep this comedy gold coming.
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Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. Translation: I believe what ever the NFL tells me to believe. Lol you description basically says these pros played like complete amateurs. Did Hekker botch a snap the entire year? Might as well change your name to chic clown at this point. Because you have no answer for the challenge I bring to your mind
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. I am going to use a very rudimentary example of this... But to illustrate a point.... If you were playing roullette, and the wheel only had 10 numbers - the chances of you getting the right number is 9-1. But if you are getting paid 12-1, you really don't have to be very good at predicting the outcome of the spin. Get your bets in at the sportsbook on the 12-1 example above. And do it many many times. That is the key. This is the way to overcome the variance.
I totally understand what you are saying and the point behind it. I think (and Im sure you know this), sports is something that can be studied and math applied to, but the human element and intangibles are something that cant be calculated. In the roulette example, they ball HAS to land on one of the 10 spots. The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday". I think the Rams/Bengals should have been a pick em. Not because the stats said so, but because I think the Bengals had stuff that cant be put into a formula (Burrow swagger, McVay messing up etc). Most people dont win long term because the stats will almost always lead you to the fact that the favorite should win because they are the better team on paper....
Im just rambling now....I know you know all this....was meant really for others reading. Van
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: I dont get what everyone doesnt understand. This is the NFL. You can do all the research you want, but once the ball is kicked things can happen. The Rams lost the turnover battle 0-2.....that usually doesnt bode well for that team. OBJ got hurt. Cant predict injuries. Cincy went for it on 4th down at midfield in the 1st Q....had they succeeded....who knows where the game does. There was a botched extra point. There was coaching errors....from clock mismanagement to play calling (and players touching the ball).....The NFL is pretty wild. The Rams could have won 34-13.....The Rams could have lost 34-13....neither result would have been shocking. So the fact that a median score of 23-20 was the result sounds about right. On to next year. I am going to use a very rudimentary example of this... But to illustrate a point.... If you were playing roullette, and the wheel only had 10 numbers - the chances of you getting the right number is 9-1. But if you are getting paid 12-1, you really don't have to be very good at predicting the outcome of the spin. Get your bets in at the sportsbook on the 12-1 example above. And do it many many times. That is the key. This is the way to overcome the variance.
I totally understand what you are saying and the point behind it. I think (and Im sure you know this), sports is something that can be studied and math applied to, but the human element and intangibles are something that cant be calculated. In the roulette example, they ball HAS to land on one of the 10 spots. The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday". I think the Rams/Bengals should have been a pick em. Not because the stats said so, but because I think the Bengals had stuff that cant be put into a formula (Burrow swagger, McVay messing up etc). Most people dont win long term because the stats will almost always lead you to the fact that the favorite should win because they are the better team on paper....
Im just rambling now....I know you know all this....was meant really for others reading. Van
The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does.
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Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:
The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does.
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does.
Yep ,you're incapable to dispute it
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does.
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does. Yep ,you're incapable to dispute it
Dispute what? That you're moron and why this site isn't better is because of people like you?
You got me brother. No arguing from me.
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Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does. Yep ,you're incapable to dispute it
Dispute what? That you're moron and why this site isn't better is because of people like you?
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does. Yep ,you're incapable to dispute it Dispute what? That you're moron and why this site isn't better is because of people like you? You got me brother. No arguing from me.
ie still unable to challenge. Only can act like a child when confronted by reality.
You're afraid and you lash out when confused.
You can't prove me wrong , so you insult and contradict.
The super bowl, kc Bengals and kc vs buffalo are absolute proof games are staged/ Manipulated.
No one can dispute it any longer
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals: The NFL has so many things you just cant calculate and thats why its "any given sunday ################### Lololand then the ref comes in and decides your fate no matter what the ball or jock does. Yep ,you're incapable to dispute it Dispute what? That you're moron and why this site isn't better is because of people like you? You got me brother. No arguing from me.
ie still unable to challenge. Only can act like a child when confronted by reality.
You're afraid and you lash out when confused.
You can't prove me wrong , so you insult and contradict.
The super bowl, kc Bengals and kc vs buffalo are absolute proof games are staged/ Manipulated.
@chic-cardinals You're so dumb and you're act is so tired. Can't you even change up the words? I am bored by your answers now.
Seriously.
Chic-Cardinals,
I have gone through the typical covers stages of engagement: try to convince you that you are a moron, try to convince you that you are factually incorrect, ignore completely.
If you want to comment on anything you want - can you just do it in your own thread? I really dont need to ever hear anything more from you in one of mine.
Please and thanks. It is cluttering up the topic at hand. You are just wasting everyones energy and time. Go do it in your own thread.
I am pretty sure I know everything you ever will say, and have read everything you have said. You have nothing new to add.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by njsupreme1:
@chic-cardinals You're so dumb and you're act is so tired. Can't you even change up the words? I am bored by your answers now.
Seriously.
Chic-Cardinals,
I have gone through the typical covers stages of engagement: try to convince you that you are a moron, try to convince you that you are factually incorrect, ignore completely.
If you want to comment on anything you want - can you just do it in your own thread? I really dont need to ever hear anything more from you in one of mine.
Please and thanks. It is cluttering up the topic at hand. You are just wasting everyones energy and time. Go do it in your own thread.
I am pretty sure I know everything you ever will say, and have read everything you have said. You have nothing new to add.
Quote Originally Posted by njsupreme1: @chic-cardinals You're so dumb and you're act is so tired. Can't you even change up the words? I am bored by your answers now. Seriously. Chic-Cardinals, I have gone through the typical covers stages of engagement: try to convince you that you are a moron, try to convince you that you are factually incorrect, ignore completely. If you want to comment on anything you want - can you just do it in your own thread? I really dont need to ever hear anything more from you in one of mine. Please and thanks. It is cluttering up the topic at hand. You are just wasting everyones energy and time. Go do it in your own thread. I am pretty sure I know everything you ever will say, and have read everything you have said. You have nothing new to add.
And yet you regurgitate the same stupid cliches, over and over about sports. But mine are tired and boring to you?
You .make the same stupid excuses over and over for blatantly wrong calls.
You think coaches made mistakes that a child would, when making decisions.
You are simply choosing which repetition to obey. I'm competing with your indoctrination from childhood.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by njsupreme1: @chic-cardinals You're so dumb and you're act is so tired. Can't you even change up the words? I am bored by your answers now. Seriously. Chic-Cardinals, I have gone through the typical covers stages of engagement: try to convince you that you are a moron, try to convince you that you are factually incorrect, ignore completely. If you want to comment on anything you want - can you just do it in your own thread? I really dont need to ever hear anything more from you in one of mine. Please and thanks. It is cluttering up the topic at hand. You are just wasting everyones energy and time. Go do it in your own thread. I am pretty sure I know everything you ever will say, and have read everything you have said. You have nothing new to add.
And yet you regurgitate the same stupid cliches, over and over about sports. But mine are tired and boring to you?
You .make the same stupid excuses over and over for blatantly wrong calls.
You think coaches made mistakes that a child would, when making decisions.
You are simply choosing which repetition to obey. I'm competing with your indoctrination from childhood.
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