All Forums | NFL Betting

suuma's Championship round

...

Participants:

Search

Posts: 168

lmb4321

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 9096

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 11:15 AM ET #26

Suuma BOL.....

0

THEBEAST387

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 594

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 12:17 PM ET #27

Right as rain, Mysticrich and we cant overlook one of the most thrilling SB, Pittsburg Steelers vs the terrible 8-8 Arizona Cardinals who were within 1.5 minutes of a SB victory. By the way the Patriots beat up Arizona by 30pt in the final game of the season. Guess who played the entire game with Coach's approval Tom ( my pitbull will attack if you fan peons come any closer, autographs are $150 at the next card show)Brady. lol

0

keven vanlith

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2003

Posts: 2009

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 1:01 PM ET #28

Your Pats Broncs writeup is a good a case i may have ever seen to play a side.

I did not need it however, i placed my balance on the pats sunday night at NE -3 -115 and thought come on this has to be 6 or so by gametime.

To my shock the ML on 3 has dropped even though more money and % of bets are far and away on NE.

I cannot figure out what people see in a possibility of Den. winning here or even keeping it close, but i will defer to your russian rulette comparison as the perfect explanation of why.

0

SmallDollaHolla

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 1104

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 1:15 PM ET #29

75% of public money on the Patriots makes me uneasy for the obvious reasons...have wagered the spread -4 and money line..hard to see Vegas taking that big of a bath on New England

0

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 49550

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 1:18 PM ET #30

very sound logic and reasoning here. the stats do not lie. can't argue with you here. the Patriots are the obvious choice!

but as they say in the No Fookin' Logic league , there are some things that just don't make sense...

i think this game will be closer than it should. in the last meeting the Pats looked like they were going to runaway with the game and officiating had as much to do with Denver's comeback as all the injuries the Pats sustained. the NFL would love to make this last Brady vs Manning matchup as compelling as possible.

appreciate the writeups as always. GL Suuma!

Sip on that plus money honey!

0

Mailmaaan

Veteran

Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 3074

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 1:33 PM ET #31

thanks for the effort, glad to be on the same side!

0

Jailbait7127

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 6715

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 1:34 PM ET #32

pats winning by 2... perfect set up for vegas! Ha.

but honestly how can anyone bet on manning right now? his arm is about to fall off. One hard hit and he might have a concussion. I CANNOT see pats losing.

0

Cooler999

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 20614

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 2:44 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

pats winning by 2... perfect set up for vegas! Ha.

but honestly how can anyone bet on manning right now? his arm is about to fall off. One hard hit and he might have a concussion. I CANNOT see pats losing.

Osweiler might be the best thing that could happen for the Broncos Mr. Bait!

0

M0neyMillsMark

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 116

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 2:59 PM ET #34

Summa man nothing but respect for you, great cap as always! Just thought I would play devils advocate here. Does it concern you that Brady has not won a playoff game thats not the Super Bowl away from home since 06? Secondly the league has given the game to Ed Hocculi, Peytons Record in games with this dude as the ref is 14-2... I will be on the other side this game just based the fact that I believe Denver is in a better spot then the pats. I agree Pats are a better team just can't see Vegas losing 3 weeks in a row here.

BOL The Mill

0

kammer55

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 3023

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:07 PM ET #35

Patriots are a money team, just like alabama people who bet against these teams are not very educated

cheech1972

0

MYSTICRICH

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 5046

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:15 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by broller:

The Giants were 10-6

Your right but my point is still valid in those two super bowl seasons the Patriots were 30-2 SU and lost both Super Bowls

Talk about choking and gagging

0

SmallDollaHolla

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 1104

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:23 PM ET #37

MysticRich=Patriots troll

0

MYSTICRICH

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 5046

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:28 PM ET #38

Actually both seasons coming into those Super Bowls counting the playoff games your looking at a Patriots record of 33 -3 SU

Yet they lose both championship games to a inferior team

and just think of what a screw up the Country Bumpkin Eli Manning is

So all this Belichick is a Genius Brady is Great isn't worth the toilet paper it's written on

0

MYSTICRICH

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 5046

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:38 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by SmallDollaHolla:

MysticRich=Patriots troll

Yea and Mysticrich has his money on the Patriots this week will be another stiff performance by Brady when Jake Plummer outplayed him and won with an inferior team ? Mysticrich had money on the Patriots that day also .

All the Brady revisionist historians don't want any of this stuff mentioned

0

M0neyMillsMark

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 116

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:44 PM ET #40

Brady is also 2-6 all time in Denver. Im not saying I am a better capper cause I'm not, just think this game is not clear cut and dry.. It never is with the NFL

0

JDaws012

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 216

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 3:48 PM ET #41

>75% of the money is on NE yet spread has stayed with the opening line. Seems like Vegas wants as much money on Pats as possible. NFL does not want to see Brady succeed this year. What a storybook ending to see Manning hoist his 2nd Lombardi this year??

0

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10321

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 4:27 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by THEBEAST387:

Right as rain, Mysticrich and we cant overlook one of the most thrilling SB, Pittsburg Steelers vs the terrible 8-8 Arizona Cardinals who were within 1.5 minutes of a SB victory. By the way the Patriots beat up Arizona by 30pt in the final game of the season. Guess who played the entire game with Coach's approval Tom ( my pitbull will attack if you fan peons come any closer, autographs are $150 at the next card show)Brady. lol

Not quite the way it was. Pats played Zona the 2cd to last game and needed to win that game in the worst way, they did and also won their last game but despite winning those final 2 games they still missed out on the playoffs and..........................

Last be far from the least................ Cassel was the QB not Brady.

0

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10321

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 4:34 PM ET #43

Because Brady is 2-6 in Denver is reason to bet on him in this spot, not against him.

That Motivation by-itself may not be enough but when you factor-in the Pats are clearly the better team with the extra incentive to really focus and bear-down this game to get over that hump that they could not get over.....it's one of the great angles in all of sports betting.

And by the way, Denver was easily the better team back in 2014 and back when Plummer beat the Pats, both games Denver was the better stronger statisitcal team.

But not this year..................................

0

earthWake

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 6196

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 5:30 PM ET #44

Like both of those teams.

suuma

0

Geaux-Tigers

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2003

Posts: 239

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 6:02 PM ET #45

I'm having trouble with this one. I basically agree with Suuma's analysis but am bothered by a few things.

I'm willing to dismiss Brady's 2-6 record in Denver but in conjunction with his 2-5 record versus Wade Phillips D it makes me uneasy. What really bothers me on the other side of the ball is that Belichick's D has allowed over 4 ypc in 13 meetings against Kubiak offenses. This is somewhat offset by the fact that they were shutting the run down in this year's game prior to Hightower leaving but he is not the same player since he came back. He is clearly hobbled and has taken himself out at times in every game since he's been back. Regardless, he'll start this game, but based on the news from Pat beat writers, Collins may not. And while his loss is biggest in pass D, that wouldn't help the run D either especially b/c without Mayo this is one thin linebacking corp. You're down to Freeny, who is wearing a cast, and some real journeyman types. They just promoted an LB from practice squad.

And if Denver can have any success on the ground, it changes this game completely as it keeps Brady off the field and shortens the game and lightens the load on Peyton.

Even in today's pass oriented NFL, home underdogs with good D's that can run the ball are still usually solid bets. Add in Bradys history in Denver and what is not a favorable officiating crew assignment and I am doubting my gut here.

The big question to me is whether or not Denvers OL is coming together or if that quality display against Pittsburgh was an anomaly. If not I think they can have some success on the ground against a depleted LB corps and keep this close.

0

keven vanlith

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2003

Posts: 2009

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 6:27 PM ET #46

NE will never let denver run the ball on them for great results and t.o.p.

They will stack the box and cover 15-20 yards and in and make PM beat them med-deep and deep.

If he does you take your hat off to him.

0

gilligansisland

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2003

Posts: 2180

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 7:59 PM ET #47

Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:

Your right but my point is still valid in those two super bowl seasons the Patriots were 30-2 SU and lost both Super Bowls

Talk about choking and gagging

Come Sunday night after the Patriots win this giant POS will say " I won money , I had a teaser " dumps + shittts on the Pats all week long , the bam !!!!!!!

"I won money " He's a liar and a loser !

0

drewskie

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 142

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 8:13 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by Geaux-Tigers:

I'm having trouble with this one. I basically agree with Suuma's analysis but am bothered by a few things.

I'm willing to dismiss Brady's 2-6 record in Denver but in conjunction with his 2-5 record versus Wade Phillips D it makes me uneasy. What really bothers me on the other side of the ball is that Belichick's D has allowed over 4 ypc in 13 meetings against Kubiak offenses. This is somewhat offset by the fact that they were shutting the run down in this year's game prior to Hightower leaving but he is not the same player since he came back. He is clearly hobbled and has taken himself out at times in every game since he's been back. Regardless, he'll start this game, but based on the news from Pat beat writers, Collins may not. And while his loss is biggest in pass D, that wouldn't help the run D either especially b/c without Mayo this is one thin linebacking corp. You're down to Freeny, who is wearing a cast, and some real journeyman types. They just promoted an LB from practice squad.

And if Denver can have any success on the ground, it changes this game completely as it keeps Brady off the field and shortens the game and lightens the load on Peyton.

Even in today's pass oriented NFL, home underdogs with good D's that can run the ball are still usually solid bets. Add in Bradys history in Denver and what is not a favorable officiating crew assignment and I am doubting my gut here.

The big question to me is whether or not Denvers OL is coming together or if that quality display against Pittsburgh was an anomaly. If not I think they can have some success on the ground against a depleted LB corps and keep this close.

Brady's 2-6 record included the 2005 playoffs (played in Jan 06) where Denver was clearly the better team that year.

2013 AFCC Pats were w/o Gronk, and the better team won on that day.

In the past Nov game, the Pats were basically fielding a skeleton squad.

Brady is also 5-2 (not 2-5) against Wade Phillips' led defenses which traditionally (including this current defense) are not about scheming but just play you straight up.

Hightower is also much better after the RS ended helped by the bye week, not sure what you were seeing there. Collins will play but how effective he will be remains to be seen, although I'd make the argument his presence is most important if the opposing QB is a mobile one which Manning is definitely not.

Freeney is the first choice starting MLB for BB so while losing Mayo isn't ideal, he's not the Pro Bowler that he once was.