All Forums | NFL Betting

suuma's NFL Week Six

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 20123
Posts: 119
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 15756
Posted: #26
KC my pick of week too.
See how it shakes out but they are in a great spot!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 6055
Posted: #27
Teams that have their next game on Thursday with future short rest (Packers and Bears) are 15-37 as home favorites before week 11.

Normally teams that have an ats margin of >6 points/game compared to their opponents are good fades (Cowboys) but if we combine that with the fact that the Packers have short rest next game our query goes to 2-5 ATS and 7-0 to the OVER for the Packers.

Like the Chiefs play as this has been an away team series.

The Broncos have lost at home last game and now are on the road versus a divisional rival....that has been money for the away team this year.

I'm on the Chiefs with ya......watching the other two....good luck.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 3214
Posted: #28
never been a cowgirl fan,,but..the better defence wins/////
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 5722
Posted: #29
Good luck to suuma and his many tailers.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #30
That was easy. Chargers & refs dominated that game 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2014
Posts: 9124
Posted: #31
Suuma good call.....Chargers played tough and finished.....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Baseball:

Thanks for the write-ups Summa!

In your write up on SD you lead off saying, "Aside from the fact that divisional road dogs are 48-27 ATS since 2015, I love this line value. "  

There is no road dog in this game.  


LOL yes, got that information regarding the Colts game and probably thought about that while writing.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Chargers - ok I agree Broncos haven't really faced anyone formidable. Maybe Chargers offense will be too much.

Seahawks - love going against public dog; especially on the road.

Packers - don't know, appears people will back this excuse of a team no matter what line Vegas throws at them


Why excuse? They are 3-1 and you could have been 3-1 ATS with them when shopping for the best lines. They beat JAX by 4 on the road (7th-best pass defense in DVOA), lost by a FG on the road vs the best team in the league right now, won 31-7 vs. DET at halftime before taking the game off (classic letdown in the 2nd half) and beat the Giants 23-9 before garbage time with a red zone INT by AR and him overall playing really bad for his standards.

This is an overall sound Football team with young guys playing well on defense (thanks to recent drafts) that is at home the fourth week in a row playing against a rookie QB that gets hyped by everyone after barely winning at SF & WSH (for instance). Give me -4 in this situation everytime. Even at 4 the public still loves Dallas.

BOL this week though Fade
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:

i love all of them..except GB 


i may be betting with my heart here since its obvious im a cowboys fan...but...i feel like dallas has a good chance to cover. a rod had all the time in the world last week against NYG but still missed open receivers...

honestly NYG's defense (on paper) is supposed to be better than dallas..but dallas defense is actually playing better right now..it was apparent that D law's presence boosted the pass rush last week against Cincy...i think they will rush the passer better than NYG did last week....Dallas pass D been playing better too..they have held OBJ/Desean (usually kills dallas)/ Aj green/ alshon in check. all 4 of those wrs usually have good games against dallas but this year is a dif story. 

yes dak is a rookie, and i am also waiting for that moment for him to come back down to earth but doesnt mean he cant prosper? remember when kap was a rookie and he killed NE at home on primetime or russell wilson or RG3 even...dak is in a PERFECT offense right now where he is not asked to do that much which is why i am not worried bout him regressing. 

lookin at their soft schedule.. this game and game against minnesota are realistically the only games dallas will most likely lose. should be a good game tho. GL 


Regarding the highlighted text:

If guys like Rodgers or Brady have an off game like this, do you expect them to have the same off performance a second week in a row? It would really surprise me if Rodgers shows another game like that.

The Redskins offense absolutely KILLED the Cowboys. If you don't think so, please go back to tape and watch it. Kirk Cousins has missed his guys so badly, I was just shaking my head. He missed guys wide open for touchdowns. With average QB play, Skins would have dropped 35+ on Dallas.

Alshon got passes by Brian Hoyer. Case closed.

The Bengals offense is NOT good. Andy Dalton is an average QB who lived from the perfect staff surrounding him last year with a great mind at OC. Now without Eifert and their offensive line obviously playing worse than 2015, this offense is trash.

Dallas defense looked solid but they are still bottom-10 by metrics playing against bad offenses. I wouldn't put my faith in your defense.

Thanks for your comment and good luck this week!


 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2006
Posts: 937
Posted: #35
GB
SEA
KC

Great work as always!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2016
Posts: 22
Posted: #36
Hi...new to this forum. Initially was led here because we have an office pick 'em league and was looking for some additional perspectives and insight. I know pick 'em and betting the spread is totally different but every bit of info helps. Only been on here for a couple of weeks but it's been useful overall, and only missed 2 games last week in our office league! But didn't win because someone got all games right except the buccs vs panthers . Really get a kick out of all the input and some of the nonsense. Especially when the next week comes and retrospect is in play. Anyway, that's the beauty of this. One game i've been looking at and reading about in particular is cowboys vs. packers. 

To start off, i like the cowboys +4 (not a habitual better either so you can take this with a grain of salt but who doesn't like and additional perspective? only close minded people). 

Pack offense still looking for rythm:
Rodgers doesn't seem to be himself lately. I believe we like to reason and justify a lot of things going right/wrong based on past accomplishments. When the new season begins, you can't go off of what you accomplished last year. Just ask the panthers. The packer offense is ranked high in points per game, but are in the bottom half in yards/game and time of possession. They're not making big plays so maybe the've been getting good starting field position and/or generating a lot of turnovers. That seems off but i didn't look too much into it. 

Their defense is good but not great:
  • I don't think they're generating many turnovers. something dak has kept low.
  • You played sam bradford in his first game as a vikes w/ a few weeks of getting to know the playbook and that potent rush game. Just figured a great defense would feast on that. 
  • The jags, well they're the jags still until proven otherwise and bortles has started off slow. That's another potent rush game though.
  • Played the lions with the 3rd most potent rush game (vikes, and jags ranked ahead) and managed to shred their 32nd ranked D according DVOA. 
  • Last, you played the giants. Which have had key injuries to their rbs (vereen, jennings) and first round cb. Coming off a road loss with injuries and an offense struggling in a vulnerable spot, i'd figure a rodgers led team coming off a bye would dismantle them in a primetime game at home. 
Cowboy run game: 
  • Linehan is creative and he'll try to establish the rush game but you don't run at a good rush defense, at least not every rush. you use your stud rb and beat them to the edge and use some screens. just going off of stats alone, rbs have had somewhat success catching against the pack. 
Cowboys D:
  • The defense is playing better than on paper. DVOA gave them a low score against cinci, even though they clearly dominated in all phases. might have to do with them allowing to dink and dunk starting in early 3rd quarter. 
Wish I had a similar situation that would allow me to juxtapose:
  • Oh 2014 week 6 going against a seahawks team that had an early bye week ranked high in dvoa in both offense and defense and to top it off playing them at the house of the 12th man. that's close enough. 
  • Crazy thing, same guys that started on the o-line that day, are starting this sunday.
  • i believe zeke is an upgrade at rb and has gotten better by the week. 75-85 rush w/ td and 40-50 yards in passing game seems doable. enough to keep them honest. Don't tell me he's a rookie and it can't be done, i've witnessed it. Hard yes, but not impossible especially with how they're playing. 
  • Pack hasn't played a mobile qb, and another thing to prepare against always makes it more difficult. 
  • In that same year the cowboys defense was ranked worst going into that game and they also had a "cupcake" schedule up to that point. The line then was even bigger. 
just have a gut feeling....

P.S. where would you rather play? at seattle or at green bay? even left the revenge angle off...jk



 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by joebro24:

Hi...new to this forum. Initially was led here because we have an office pick 'em league and was looking for some additional perspectives and insight. I know pick 'em and betting the spread is totally different but every bit of info helps. Only been on here for a couple of weeks but it's been useful overall, and only missed 2 games last week in our office league! But didn't win because someone got all games right except the buccs vs panthers . Really get a kick out of all the input and some of the nonsense. Especially when the next week comes and retrospect is in play. Anyway, that's the beauty of this. One game i've been looking at and reading about in particular is cowboys vs. packers. 

To start off, i like the cowboys +4 (not a habitual better either so you can take this with a grain of salt but who doesn't like and additional perspective? only close minded people). 

Pack offense still looking for rythm:
Rodgers doesn't seem to be himself lately. I believe we like to reason and justify a lot of things going right/wrong based on past accomplishments. When the new season begins, you can't go off of what you accomplished last year. Just ask the panthers. The packer offense is ranked high in points per game, but are in the bottom half in yards/game and time of possession. They're not making big plays so maybe the've been getting good starting field position and/or generating a lot of turnovers. That seems off but i didn't look too much into it. 

Their defense is good but not great:
  • I don't think they're generating many turnovers. something dak has kept low.
  • You played sam bradford in his first game as a vikes w/ a few weeks of getting to know the playbook and that potent rush game. Just figured a great defense would feast on that. 
  • The jags, well they're the jags still until proven otherwise and bortles has started off slow. That's another potent rush game though.
  • Played the lions with the 3rd most potent rush game (vikes, and jags ranked ahead) and managed to shred their 32nd ranked D according DVOA. 
  • Last, you played the giants. Which have had key injuries to their rbs (vereen, jennings) and first round cb. Coming off a road loss with injuries and an offense struggling in a vulnerable spot, i'd figure a rodgers led team coming off a bye would dismantle them in a primetime game at home. 
Cowboy run game: 
  • Linehan is creative and he'll try to establish the rush game but you don't run at a good rush defense, at least not every rush. you use your stud rb and beat them to the edge and use some screens. just going off of stats alone, rbs have had somewhat success catching against the pack. 
Cowboys D:
  • The defense is playing better than on paper. DVOA gave them a low score against cinci, even though they clearly dominated in all phases. might have to do with them allowing to dink and dunk starting in early 3rd quarter. 
Wish I had a similar situation that would allow me to juxtapose:
  • Oh 2014 week 6 going against a seahawks team that had an early bye week ranked high in dvoa in both offense and defense and to top it off playing them at the house of the 12th man. that's close enough. 
  • Crazy thing, same guys that started on the o-line that day, are starting this sunday.
  • i believe zeke is an upgrade at rb and has gotten better by the week. 75-85 rush w/ td and 40-50 yards in passing game seems doable. enough to keep them honest. Don't tell me he's a rookie and it can't be done, i've witnessed it. Hard yes, but not impossible especially with how they're playing. 
  • Pack hasn't played a mobile qb, and another thing to prepare against always makes it more difficult. 
  • In that same year the cowboys defense was ranked worst going into that game and they also had a "cupcake" schedule up to that point. The line then was even bigger. 
just have a gut feeling....

P.S. where would you rather play? at seattle or at green bay? even left the revenge angle off...jk





Whether I agree or not, you should start posting on a regular basis.

For everything you have mentioned, I've found counter arguments throughout this thread. Regarding the offensive drive efficiency by GB:

8th in yds/drive at 34.38
9th in pts/drive at 2.33
11th in drive success rate at .716

Cowboys' defense:

27th in yds/drive at 36.96
14th in pts/drive at 1.96
27th in drive success rate at .743

I take these three key stats to describe drive efficiency, because it's important that pts/drive correlate with the other two. If that isn't the case, the team either over- or underperformed. In this case, the GB offense played up to their efficiency while the Cowboys defense overperformed in terms of PPG. The reason is that they faced the offenses of SF, WSH, CHI & CIN. Gabbert, Cousins & Hoyer are probably in the bottom-4 of starting QBs along with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Packers scored 31 points on Detroit in one half and took the gears off in the second. On the first drive after halftime, Lacy ran 5 times, Rodgers threw twice and scrambled twice. A first down in the red zone was called back because of a holding. And so on. I expect the Packers to score wild on Dallas.

Thanks for posting
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #38
Ravens/Giants Under 45 -110

Capped this matchup again and again and see both offenses struggling throughout the game. Ravens are without Marshal Yanda & 95% without Ronnie Stanley while Olivier Vernon & Jason Pierre-Paul seem to play. Giants have a good run D with Snacks being a wall in the middle and Vernon/JPP containing the edges. With a decimated OL, Ravens are gonna have a hard time running the ball and passing the ball without Steve Smith. Trestman got called out for abonding the run game and w/o Steve Smith, I expect Morningweg to call more run plays which eats the clock.

On the flip side, I expect the Giants offense to be overmatched even without CJ Mosley. If they line up Terrell Suggs consistently on the right side, he could get 4 sacks against Ereck Flowers. This Ravens D has been playing phenomenal and I don't see how this inefficient Giants offense with a mess of an OL is going to light them up. This is gonna be a sloppy field position kind of game with either team pulling away by 20-17. The total should be in the low 40s, I love the value here.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #39
Miami Dolphins +7 -105

This is a great spot to take the Dolphins whom I expect to be an ATS cow the upcoming weeks. The Fins offense stands and falls with its offensive line. They finally get all five starters back: Albert, Tunsil, Pouncey, Bushrod & James. When Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey & Ja'Wuan James started and finished games together, the Dolphins went 6-1 SUATS, scoring 31 PPG. Now they also have Tunsil in the mix. The Steelers are without Camereon Heyward & Ryan Shazier, which is bad. I definitely see the Dolphins scoring 21+ here.

The Dolphins offense is bad, plain and simple. But Steelers are without starting RT Marcus Gilbert, Marcus Wheaton & Sammie Coates. Coates has a swollen hand and only had one limited practice. If he is active, expect him to be on a snap count. Steelers missing some pieces on offense and travel to Florida to play in the heat and are favored by 7 points. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-21 ATS as a 3+ road fav and 3-10 ATS as a 7+ road fav. With those injuries and Miami capable of scoring, I don't really see how the Steelers beat the Dolphins by 8+ on the road and believe this could be a spot where they lose straight up.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2016
Posts: 128
Posted: #40
Dak Prescott can play it has nothing to do with who Dallas has played 

Green bay host Chicago onThursday night they win that game but lose SU vs Dallas 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2016
Posts: 22
Posted: #41
I appreciate those efficiency stats suuma! They definitely paint a clearer picture. One of the reasons i really like the forum is because of the feedback you get back. You're one of the main cappers i really like to read on when you do post! Keep doing you're thing and i hope you have a successful weekend!

I locked it in already before i saw your feedback. BOL
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1754
Posted: #42
Like the picks and good to see you picked Miami as well,just added it to my card last night for a lot of the same reasons.

Funny to see people jumping all over Dallas in Lambeau. Not only would the Skins have torched them but NYG did as well, their secondary is so easily exposed.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2016
Posts: 128
Posted: #43
Why would wait to bet KC they obviously were going to be a favorite you never were going to get plus money 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 2337
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Regarding the highlighted text:

If guys like Rodgers or Brady have an off game like this, do you expect them to have the same off performance a second week in a row? It would really surprise me if Rodgers shows another game like that.

The Redskins offense absolutely KILLED the Cowboys. If you don't think so, please go back to tape and watch it. Kirk Cousins has missed his guys so badly, I was just shaking my head. He missed guys wide open for touchdowns. With average QB play, Skins would have dropped 35+ on Dallas.

Alshon got passes by Brian Hoyer. Case closed.

The Bengals offense is NOT good. Andy Dalton is an average QB who lived from the perfect staff surrounding him last year with a great mind at OC. Now without Eifert and their offensive line obviously playing worse than 2015, this offense is trash.

Dallas defense looked solid but they are still bottom-10 by metrics playing against bad offenses. I wouldn't put my faith in your defense.

Thanks for your comment and good luck this week!



good points. and yea A rod probably wouldn't have that type of game again...WE'LL C THOUGH! 

GL 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 1299
Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Miami Dolphins +7 -105

This is a great spot to take the Dolphins whom I expect to be an ATS cow the upcoming weeks. The Fins offense stands and falls with its offensive line. They finally get all five starters back: Albert, Tunsil, Pouncey, Bushrod & James. When Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey & Ja'Wuan James started and finished games together, the Dolphins went 6-1 SUATS, scoring 31 PPG. Now they also have Tunsil in the mix. The Steelers are without Camereon Heyward & Ryan Shazier, which is bad. I definitely see the Dolphins scoring 21+ here.

The Dolphins offense is bad, plain and simple. But Steelers are without starting RT Marcus Gilbert, Marcus Wheaton & Sammie Coates. Coates has a swollen hand and only had one limited practice. If he is active, expect him to be on a snap count. Steelers missing some pieces on offense and travel to Florida to play in the heat and are favored by 7 points. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-21 ATS as a 3+ road fav and 3-10 ATS as a 7+ road fav. With those injuries and Miami capable of scoring, I don't really see how the Steelers beat the Dolphins by 8+ on the road and believe this could be a spot where they lose straight up.

Love the pick.  Love the angle.  I was going to take Pitt in my survival till I read about their offensive line.  Funny how the public is all over Pitt yet the line dropped from 7.5 to 7.  Also great to see that dreaded look ahead spot to New England at home.  Boy I'd love to see a Pitt upset!
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 49550
Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Miami Dolphins +7 -105

This is a great spot to take the Dolphins whom I expect to be an ATS cow the upcoming weeks. The Fins offense stands and falls with its offensive line. They finally get all five starters back: Albert, Tunsil, Pouncey, Bushrod & James. When Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey & Ja'Wuan James started and finished games together, the Dolphins went 6-1 SUATS, scoring 31 PPG. Now they also have Tunsil in the mix. The Steelers are without Camereon Heyward & Ryan Shazier, which is bad. I definitely see the Dolphins scoring 21+ here.

The Dolphins offense is bad, plain and simple. But Steelers are without starting RT Marcus Gilbert, Marcus Wheaton & Sammie Coates. Coates has a swollen hand and only had one limited practice. If he is active, expect him to be on a snap count. Steelers missing some pieces on offense and travel to Florida to play in the heat and are favored by 7 points. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-21 ATS as a 3+ road fav and 3-10 ATS as a 7+ road fav. With those injuries and Miami capable of scoring, I don't really see how the Steelers beat the Dolphins by 8+ on the road and believe this could be a spot where they lose straight up.

As a Ravens fan, i approve this writeup. Go Dolphins!
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 33986
Posted: #47
BOL bro..
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 4252
Posted: #48
GL summa, seabirds along with cinn are my best plays of the week. Great insight as always 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 5722
Posted: #49
I like MIA.
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 3012
Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

Like the picks and good to see you picked Miami as well,just added it to my card last night for a lot of the same reasons.

Funny to see people jumping all over Dallas in Lambeau. Not only would the Skins have torched them but NYG did as well, their secondary is so easily exposed.

Cousins only missed one pass of significance in that game. sure, it took 7 points off the board, but it was similar to the Tye miss from Eli last week. these things happen to all teams. youre talking about a team that has only lost one game and it was by one point. certain styles lend themselves to close games, the Cowboys style will not allow a 4.5 point defeat.
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.