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suuma's NFL week two

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Posted: #51
suma, your  work on handicapping and insight is worth the reads. but I swear we don't look at coaching enough, coaching matters all year just not in playoffs.
 
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Posted: #52
not just in playoffs
 
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Posted: #53
It was the right side to play on.

Thats why its called gambling, can;t win them all.

Chin up, its only Thursday night of week 2.
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Love your insights suuma.

Whats your thoughts on the Bills this week?  I have had this game circled for some time now, more of a fade the Superbowl champs style bet, I figure if they are going to drop one early in the season, this has got to be the game.  Not a very technical angle, and look forward to hearing what you have to say on the issue.

Cheers


I also had this game circled but I can't pull the trigger. If one guy can beat a good defense, it's Tom Brady. He looked like he is on a mission. Also Rex Ryan hates the Pats so much that I have to question his objectivity during the game. Will just stay away.


 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by GoalinCrazyUK:

Nice picks last week, was with you on Bengals and Fish singles, and went 4-1 on my parlay, bloody Indy let me down?

I'm on under 41.5 tonight, and have Fish -6 and Bengals -3 again this weekend as singles, added Titans ML and GB -3 to anther fun parlay for the week.

Do you stay up or get up for the Thursday games?  I had the under last week, woke up 0125 to watch it, but getting too old went right back to bed!  I see you are in Germany, I'm in the UK that is why I mention it ;)

GL this week!



I do get up for the games. Not every week though. Gonna travel to London for the Jets/Dolphins game

Good luck to you!!
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:


If it wasn't for the pick 6 I think Denver would have really exposed a lot of flaws in KC's total game. The line for next week "should" be Denver -2 vs Detroit. Depending on how Detroit fares this weekend I might back DEN again, that D is a beast. 

GL on the rest of the plays Suuma!


KC was up 14-7 with receiving the ball in the second half - you just don't call the second pass play with Alex Smith as your QB. Run down the clock and try to maybe sneak out some field position for a FG with a few seconds left.

KC was up 24-17 and contained PM for the whole game by attacking his achilles: pass rush on that weak offensive line. He had only one successful drive until late in the fourth. Peyton Manning with over 2 minutes on the clock and no pressure is 80% a touchdown. So you gonna pressure him like you did all game long and force him to beat you under pressure. Not pressuring him and lining up a rookie CB man-to-man on Demariyus Thomas when PM has time and momentum - bad idea. Even though Marcus Peters has had a solid game.

You got beat, score is 24-24. You failed by trying to score right before halftime, so what you do? You kneel down to get into a break because the opposite team has gained momentum and try to get another shot in the overtime.

This was flat out terrible coaching. The Chiefs were the better team, especially when holding the Broncos to just 4.3 yards per play.



 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Suuma, buddy, this crap happens to me every time I bet! I'm never on the other end of the crap fest. Always on the crap side. Craps! Or almost never. Seattle, SB. Clippers up 3-1. Simon beating Donald Young (a player he had never lost a set to) two sets to none and up 3-0 in the 3rd. Serena, beating a pusher (to whom she had never dropped a set to) in the semifinal of the USO, up a set... And on and on and on Once, I got lucky. Just once, and I'll never forget it (Seattle against the Packers). But I've been unlucky more times than I can count. Why is that? Why doesn't this crap ever even out? Craps! Oh well... At least I didn't tease the under :) which was real tempting. Rant over. I'll go back to drinking my bourbon now.  


Those are tough beats, indeed, BB. Hope you will be on the lucky side soon.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:


That's a big call, Luck is a beast coming off a loss. Jets hardly inspired statistically against the dire Browns...


Luck is not a beast when playing against good coverage defenses. The Jets didn't show anything against the Browns because they didn't have to.


 
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Posted: #59
Hey Summa,

I appreciate all of your input.  You seem to know a ton about the players and the game.

Earlier last week, you mentioned that Indy is a good matchup for the jets??? 

Now you are saying Jets straight up?   Just wondering why ...  Thx.
 
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Posted: #60
SUUMA, Smith didn't even see Kelce in the end zone wide open. The possession turned into a T.O. In fact, Smith missed Kelce twice 
Early in the game because he was being Smith which means he was looking for quick dump offs. Anyways, 4 T.O. Is bad football and KC didn't deserve to win. I'm highly disappointed with my team after that performance. Get Em next time dang it!!!
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Foosball2:

Hey Summa,

I appreciate all of your input.  You seem to know a ton about the players and the game.

Earlier last week, you mentioned that Indy is a good matchup for the jets??? 

Now you are saying Jets straight up?   Just wondering why ...  Thx.


Either you got me wrong or my statement was a bit of a misunderstanding. I meant to say the Jets match up very well with the Colts. I have this game circled since a few months. Will have a write-up on Monday, still focusing on Sunday.


 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:

SUUMA, Smith didn't even see Kelce in the end zone wide open. The possession turned into a T.O. In fact, Smith missed Kelce twice 
Early in the game because he was being Smith which means he was looking for quick dump offs. Anyways, 4 T.O. Is bad football and KC didn't deserve to win. I'm highly disappointed with my team after that performance. Get Em next time dang it!!!


I get your point but the Broncos looked worse than that "bad football" by the Chiefs.
 
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Posted: #63
KC -3 was absolutely the right play dispite the outcome. Those kind of beats are like getting stunned by a right hook early in a fight, you scrap it up and keep going

Here's a tidbit for you on things that are "uncapable"

Jamal Charles 2 fumbles resulted in a 10 pt swing. The first one in the 1st quarter was in the redzone, and it's safe to say they get a field goal otherwise. We all know what happened w/ the second. On top of that, did you know that Jamal Charles has the best YPC in NFL history? That's better than Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Bo Jsckson.... the list is every RB that has ever played the game

How do you cap a guy like that to cost his team the game...
Ofcoarse Andy Reid choosing not to kneel didn't help.

I love the Jets on monday night Suuma. Check out my thread lmk what you think.

BOL this week
 
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Posted: #64
I was on KC as well, but Football is four quarters of play and they didn't do that. What should of or could of happened doesn't matter. It's about what actually happens. Denver stepped up and KC bowed out. 
 
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Posted: #65
Suuma, enjoy the writeups and much respect to you and your style. But just because your analysis was correct for certain points that you made, does not mean that it was the "right" side . Apart from the first quarter and part of the 2nd, anybody who had either kc or the under had to know that the cover was in question from that point. IMO, if a team is pretty much covering or 1 score away from the cover (aside from when it was 14-0), and for almost the whole game, this is not the "right" side. It is also crazy for people to discredit Peyton based off 1 game vs a Ravens defense they clearly werent game planned for.  For Peyton to have as bad of a game as he did last week, would be very very unlikely.  Before his td pass, he was in the longest drought of his career without throwing a TD . That is obviously a trend that will not continue.  Fumbles cant be capped, but Alex Smiths shltty qb play and Andy Reids horrible play calling can ! Add to the fact that denver owns kc in recent matchups which everybody noted, and kc-3 is a questionable call at best. 
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by DeLoreanStylez:

Suuma, enjoy the writeups and much respect to you and your style. But just because your analysis was correct for certain points that you made, does not mean that it was the "right" side . Apart from the first quarter and part of the 2nd, anybody who had either kc or the under had to know that the cover was in question from that point. IMO, if a team is pretty much covering or 1 score away from the cover (aside from when it was 14-0), and for almost the whole game, this is not the "right" side. It is also crazy for people to discredit Peyton based off 1 game vs a Ravens defense they clearly werent game planned for.  For Peyton to have as bad of a game as he did last week, would be very very unlikely.  Before his td pass, he was in the longest drought of his career without throwing a TD . That is obviously a trend that will not continue.  Fumbles cant be capped, but Alex Smiths shltty qb play and Andy Reids horrible play calling can ! Add to the fact that denver owns kc in recent matchups which everybody noted, and kc-3 is a questionable call at best. 


Thanks for your comment. Peyton had a game as bad as last week. It was predictable that he and his offensive line would have a bad matchup against the Chiefs and that was obviously the case. He had two successful drives, one of them was when the Chiefs didn't pressure him and Kubiak finally let him play shotgun. He was terrible from under center in pre-season and in the Ravens game, and was terrible again against the Chiefs. This offense produced short below 5 net-YPPA. For instance, the Jets averaged 5.4 in 2014.




 
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Posted: #67
Suuma, saw this stat regarding the Jags.......Jags at home 18-38 ATS since 2008.......Jags have lost 10 straight September games ATS since 2012........
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

Suuma, saw this stat regarding the Jags.......Jags at home 18-38 ATS since 2008.......Jags have lost 10 straight September games ATS since 2012........




Add to the fact that Bortles completed ZERO passes on 11 dropbacks under pressure last Sunday.
 
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Posted: #69
KC was not the right pick. Anyone who picked Denver, was not doing so for a bounce back game from manning. They were betting on denvers d, which has been absolutely dominant on all levels. In order for Kc to win consistently, Charles has to come up big every week because smith isn't going to take any chances. You can point to the fumbles, but what about mannings pick six? Or getting stuffed on 4th and 1. Both sides turned the ball over. You can't say the pick was wrong when the Matchups in the game went more or less as expected.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by Brown8535:

KC was not the right pick. Anyone who picked Denver, was not doing so for a bounce back game from manning. They were betting on denvers d, which has been absolutely dominant on all levels. In order for Kc to win consistently, Charles has to come up big every week because smith isn't going to take any chances. You can point to the fumbles, but what about mannings pick six? Or getting stuffed on 4th and 1. Both sides turned the ball over. You can't say the pick was wrong when the Matchups in the game went more or less as expected.


Agreed 100%. KC has no advantage over DEN in any phase of the game. Alex Smith is very over rated and the O-Line in front of Charles is worse than Denvers. Jamaal Charles best days are behind him, regression will rear its ugly head. That early pick 6 was the only thing giving the mirage that KC was the better team.

DEN started firing on offense once Kubiak saw his crap play calling being ineffective a second week in a row. Expect Manning from here on out to go back to the play calling style he's thrived in.


 
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Posted: #71
I do not believe KC was the right pick (note I had money on Chiefs). Fumble is not cappable? Maybe, if it was just one fumble in the game. But how many turnovers did we see? As far as I know there were three fumbles and two interceptions conceded by the Chiefs - most of these leading to eventual TDs. Clearly they were the inferior team slated for the loss despite how good or bad you think Manning may have played.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

I do not believe KC was the right pick (note I had money on Chiefs). Fumble is not cappable? Maybe, if it was just one fumble in the game. But how many turnovers did we see? As far as I know there were three fumbles and two interceptions conceded by the Chiefs - most of these leading to eventual TDs. Clearly they were the inferior team slated for the loss despite how good or bad you think Manning may have played.


I seriously doubt an inferior team can turn the ball over 4 times and have a 7 point lead with 4 minutes left.
 
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Posted: #73

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I do get up for the games. Not every week though. Gonna travel to London for the Jets/Dolphins game

Good luck to you!!

Suuma, thanks as always for your great insights. Where are you living in Germany? I lived there for a year and also lived in Austria, years ago. I wonder how the buzz is to go to an NFL game in Europe. Do they sell out? There is not really a home team, so it must seem like a college bowl game or super bowl :-)

 

 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:



I seriously doubt an inferior team can turn the ball over 4 times and have a 7 point lead with 4 minutes left.

Not "inferior" in the sense that they're as bad as the Bucs or Jags, inferior in the sense that the team has all of the pieces to potentially win a Superbowl, where as the Chiefs are right around the same strength as the Chargers and will be 1 dimensional. 

Take away the pick 6 and the Broncos on the road are up 14-7 at halftime. KC is playing at 100% max effort with it being the home opener and revenge on their minds. If not for the crap play calling trying to be the 2011 Baltimore Ravens, Manning could have exploited the WR advantage all day. If you watched the game and followed the live news feeds during the game, right around 3rd quarter local news casters verbatim said Kubiak has made a compromise and is letting Manning run the offense. "Running the offense" is essentially run "just enough" so that Defenses aren't always dropping extra men into coverage so Peyton can get the ball to either Demaryius or Emmanuel. Better team rose to the the top, Chiefs were VERY lucky on their end to be in the game, at home, fired up, and pissed (now even more pissed) at Peyton/Denver. 

It's not the NBA or MLB where "eventually" a team will beat a certain player because they're due. Sometimes in the NFL (only 2-3 games TOPS a season) players will absolutely own familiar teams. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
*inferior in the sense that "the OTHER" team* is how that should have read. Referencing Denver: It was mentioned all summer that Peyton's arm strength and velocity are at their highest levels since his neck injury. Denvers D can challenge the #1 over all spot. Demaryius Thomas is an elite weapon on the same level as Antonio Brown, Megatron, Gronkowski, Beast Mode, etc. 

Keep in mind that I haaaate the Broncos and dont really care much for Manning (either of them). But gotta give respect when its due...especially if money can brighten up your day. They are so talented and possess such a strong home field advantage they can LOSE the turnover battle every game and potentially go 13-3. Wont win the SB that way, but will certainly win a lot of games (probably wont beat the spread as much tho). If the Bronco's D can match up well with the rosters New England, Green Bay, Seattle, and St. Louis have come January...they can win the Superbowl. 
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