suuma's NFL wild card round - the past does not predict the future.

YTD 73-47 (60.8%)

It was a very good NFL season for me, even though I am not completely satisfied. There were many things I've learned and many spots I simply misread. At the end I had 13 winning weeks out of 17, that's quite okay I guess. Now on to the playoffs.

I don't have much time today, so I will hammer the keyboard to share my thoughts right now:


Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 -110 (2x)

I have to admit that I was on the Bengals in week seven when they were shut out by the Colts. I definitely misread the situation. Bengals started the season with a fourth quarter comeback at Baltimore, played weak Atlanta and Tennessee teams at home then to lose at NE in embarrassing fashion. NE came off a huge prime time loss. The Bengals then played full five quarters in an overtime tie against the Panthers. If you followed LeagueCapper this season you noticed that he found out that teams were dead awful after a tie, losing big time the next game. All I want to say is that the Bengals were in a terrible spot that game. Cincy missed A.J. Green and LB Burfict and CB Hall were sidelined early due to an injury. Cincy didn't have a real running game that week. This game in week seven just doesn't predict the outcome of this weeks game. It's a completely different situation. The Bengals improved from that game on and went 7-3. Their defense improved as well and had just one off game - against the Steelers at home. Their running game is improving every week. Without Bradshaw, the Colts were simply one-dimensional during the last couple weeks. They barely beat Cleveland and Houston, were steamrolled at Dallas and I can't count a win against a team which holds the second pick in the next draft. I like the Bengals season finish way more than the Colts finish. I think their defense can make a few important stops and their offense is definitely able to score on the soft Colts defense, whether Green plays or not. Colts are weak and inefficient against the run, we should see Hill/Bernard getting their role done. If Green is out, I will buy out and reduce my play to a normal play. If Green is healthy, the Red Rifle is going to win his first career playoff game IMO.


Detroit Lions +7 -105 (2x)

I have been waiting for such a matchup. Keep one thing in mind: Dallas played the WORST schedule - #32 - of all teams in terms of adjusted records. Detroit have played the #24 schedule in the league, so we almost don't need to adjust their records to their stats. Cowboys will face a d-line they haven't faced all season long. Detroit are the best team against the run and running the football was the Dallas' bread and butter. I don't expect the Cowboys to run against Detroit like they did against other teams. Cowboys faced two front sevens similar to the Lions: Seattle and Arizona. They hit Seattle in a very bad stretch, everyone of you knows that. Today they wouldn't come close to beating Seattle. Seattle's front seven improved much from that game on. Against Arizona they ran for a poor 3.7 yards per carry. That's Oakland Raiders style! Tony Romo won't have the time he had in many games to hit an open receiver. Lions not only are good against the run, they are also #6 against the pass. Their secondary got a huge boost from last season. Cowboys played three top10 defenses this season. They needed a magical third down conversion against Seattle, won in OT against Houston and lost against the Niners! Will the Lions offense beat the Dallas secondary ? Yes. Keep in mind: Dallas played the #32 schedule and their defense is #25 against the pass (7.2 YPPA). Just remember how Megatron played cat and mouse with the Dallas secondary last season. The secondary has not improved. If they double Megatron ? Well, look what a threat Golden Tate was all season especially when Megatron was injured. In addition I like what I saw from Eric Ebron in the second half of the season. Detroit will find ways to score and the Dallas d-line wasn't anything special this season. Lions straight up!

Baltimore Ravens +3 +100

I have small future bets on the Ravens to win the SB at 33-1 and 49-1. So this one is simply a no-brainer for me. Without Bell, I really like the chances for the Ravens to come out as a winner. Played this game way smaller than the other two.

I am welcoming every discussion, but will respond tomorrow or Friday. Have a nice switch-over into 2015

Good luck, suuma! 

Congrats on a excellent year.

Like the Cincy play..Cant back Detroit today but the points are nice..As a ravens fan I cant imagine them winning this game after the horrible end to the season they had. Bell being out helps but they have no secondary and I expect Ben to light them up

 

GL

On both Suuma......still looking for Veltins and Krombacher.......

GL this week Suuma 

Suuma, I have been on the other side of Dallas all year and ate my lunch.  The line here is a bit conspicuous as I think Dallas is getting America's team points.  The line should be closer to 3 to 4.5.  However, although I agree with most of your assessment I don't like Mathew Stafford in any game.  detroit has many offensive weapons but they don't seem to get it done.  Is it the "O" line or Stafford?  Probably a little of both.  Getting Suh back is a big break as his behind should be suspended.  My gut tells me Detroit should lose but cover however my head keeps reminding me of how this has been the Cowboys year.  As you said in one of your write ups now is the time you go with the hot team.  That would be Dallas.  I was leaning Dallas but now it's a no play as I respect your position.

bol this week suuma

Detroit is awful.

I watched the Ravens play in their final few games, and it was honestly just awful. They have serious pass protection issues, and I really don't see them having a chance to keep up with Pittsburgh on the road here. Bell or not.

2-1 at best. Jan 11 is when big D goes down at the frozen tundra in Green Bay! Great year and good luck going into the next. 

Bol buddy. I like your headline, "the past does not predict the future." Words to live by in order to survive the NFL.

Suuma...my key to the game is Joique Bell.....just a gut feeling....

Good luck, Heff. 

How dare you bet against Pittsburgh.   

Happy New Year, buddy. 

It's a matter of against which opponents they got hot. Since their bye week they played no defense ranked better than #16. Now they get the fourth best. Good luck to you this weekend!

Thanks for your comment. In fact, the Ravens have the best total defense within the division and the #15 ranked passing D in the league while the Steelers have the #29. I don't believe Big Ben will light them up as he did in week nine. Remember the Ravens held the Steelers to six points in week 2. GL this week!

The past does not predict the future. I just like the matchup. At the end I am comfortable with them losing by two field goals but I really like their chances to win straight up. Cowboys have proven nothing that makes me believe they will beat a good defense by more than 7 points.

That's why I don't go big on them. It's more of a gut feeling. They are #8 in the league in total defense and I just hope they can bring some on the table. They don't need to stack the box so hopefully they can improve their passing D.

Thank you. If it's the two big games, I am fine with 2-1. But will be playing Carolina as well.

Would be fine buddy

HNY, Dog. Sorry my friend

He rushed 290 times for 1,361 yards, 4.7 YPC and 8 TD.

He was targeted 105 times for 83 completions and 854 yards through the air.

They are missing their workhorse who accounted for the third most rushing yards in the NFL and the most receiving yards by any RB. In addition, Bell is Pittsburgh's second best receiver.

And now you tell me "No Bell, no problem" ?

The Steelers are not the same team they were in week 2. I can tell that you have not watched Pittsburgh play in December, because had you watched them, you would have seen that their defense has come alive in all phases including the secondary. Your analysis is deeply flawed and I just hope you have a ringside seat on Saturday night. I am Pittsburgh's biggest critic but they have played very impressive football and are gellin' at the right time. No Bell, no problem...they have others to pick up the slack.