suuma's wildcard round 2015

Quote Originally Posted by TNT909:

Vikings win by 7+

Quote Originally Posted by BET2WIN4:

Bunholes +111 dead monies 

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Cincinnati Bengals +3 or ML

Here is what I've written about Cincy and AJ McCarron before the season: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102156091

And after 16 games they have shown they are a very good Football team. Overall they are the better team than the Steelers. Lewis has not won a playoff game with them but they never had the personnel or matchup they have this time. So the only reason to go against them would be AJ McCarron for me, but is he a downgrade over Andy Dalton? The reason the Bengals are +3 at home is because its AJ vs. Ben. With Andy it would probably be Bengals -2.5 or -3. Is AJ 5-6 points worse than Andy? I don't think so. This kid is a proven winner. He is 2-1 and played the best half at Denver I've seen for a long while from any QB. They have adjusted their offense to him, playing conservative, get Hill/Bernard into the game along with some wildcat looks for Sanu and let McCarron make some throws to exploit mismatches this great receiving corps can create. They are playing at home, have an overall great team on both sides of the ball, top-5 OL, 2nd best scoring defense, deep secondary. This is a favorable setup when having a playoff home game.

The Steelers are just not the same. Can they prove me wrong? Yeah of course but I don't see it by now. Ben has 21TD and 16INT in about 12 games this season. There is a reason he was so "bad". Le'Veon Bell was a HUGE loss for this offense because of his pass-catching ability. He is a whole dimension for this offense. Martavis Bryant had some issues here and there and he struggled down the stretch. Now De'Angelo Williams who stepped in as a very good backup for Bell by averaging 4.5 YPC, is down. Against this defense, the Steelers desperately need to get their run game going to get Bryant & ABrown in man coverage or soft zone spots. I just can't see Tussaint, Todman and Johnson running the show. Look what the Steelers did vs. the Browns without a running game. And the Bengals' front seven is 5 levels superior than the Browns'. The Patriots can win without running the ball a single time but can the Steelers? Brown was targeted 13.2 times over the final 6 weeks. Without stacking the box, the Bengals can show some more nickle looks and contain Brown over the top with a safety. Not to mention the best pass-rushing tandem in Dunlap and Atkins who will have more time because the Steelers will face some more 3rd and longs than they would like to.

Overall, I have not wasted a single thought in taking the Steelers. Lewis will get his first playoff win with the Bengals and then Dalton comes back from injury and gets his a*s kicked by a Pats team that is on 4 weeks of rest. The Steelers front seven is pretty good/solid but the secondary is still below average and they should get torched here and there. Still undecided whether to make it a big play. Depends on the final line I will get.

Quote Originally Posted by BetFriends:

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Thanks everybody

Saturday:

Chiefs -3 -101
Bengals ML +111

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:



Not sure why you didn't take the points. Bad luck.

Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:



Not sure why you didn't take the points. Bad luck.

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

I see. I was just watching a YouTube clip off Sportsbook Review site. Apparently teams with less than 6 point spread also win game straight up 90% of time. So it makes sense to sprinkle some ML action if the price is right.