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suuma's wildcard round 2015

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FadeOnly

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Posted: Jan. 7, 2016 - 6:25 PM ET #26

Good luck this weekend, suuma.

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JerryWrasse

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Posted: Jan. 7, 2016 - 9:05 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Cincinnati Bengals +3 or ML

Here is what I've written about Cincy and AJ McCarron before the season: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102156091

Agree on the game. Although not sure we don't get cin/kc playing for the afc.

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undermysac

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Posts: 48534

Posted: Jan. 7, 2016 - 9:39 PM ET #28

I think Pittsburgh losing D'Angelo Williams(at this point in the season) is a bigger loss that losing Leveon Bell...

(Yes, call me crazy and bash this post all you want)

Just ask the Chiefs how they are doing without Jamal. And he happens to have the best YPC in NFL history.

But as you know Suuma, I give little importance to the RB position. It's the easiest positional transition from college to the pros. When Leveon went out, he was replaced by an experienced vet. A back that knew all there is about pass pro, blocking schemes ect...And for the most part D'Angelo was fresh considering he split carries w/ Jonathon Stewart most of his career.

There wasn't much regression(if at all)from the loss of Bell. You are right about the pass catching though Suuma, that part of Bell's game made him dynamic.

,

Now your asking Toussaint and Todman to step in, on the road, in a playoff game. Lots of pressure. Pass pro and ball security should be a concern here. If they had a few more games under their belt I wouldn't be as worried, but this is bad timing for the steelers.

BOL this weekend Suuma

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WillyBilliams

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Posts: 351

Posted: Jan. 7, 2016 - 10:59 PM ET #29

Thanks Suuma, I'm on Seattle, Cin, and I think GB gets it done

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PhillyBrown

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Posts: 1754

Posted: Jan. 7, 2016 - 11:32 PM ET #30

You make good points, my lean was to the Vikings at first though, Seattle has been hot but Vikings have looked pretty good since that Seahawks game as well and Bridge is starting to make more plays. He isn't Russell Wilson but has been showing the ability to avoid the rush and extend plays lately. Minnesota's Defense also got healthier at the end of the season and is 8th in sacks per game on the year, and 1st in the league during the last 3 games. Wilson pulls his Houdini's but is actually one of the most sacked QBs in the league.

With Diggs emerging as a reliable weapon to complement Peterson, a capable TE in Kyle Rudolph (Seattle's Achilles heel on D is the TE), and the big play capability from the return men Sherels and Patterson, I think they can manage enough on offense to keep it much closer than last time. With the defense on both sides playing well and the cold, and the big name RBs, I see both teams trying to run a lot. Vikings are 4th in the league in YPR, Seattle is 7th. It could come down to special teams either in returns or the kick game, and both teams have good long distance kickers as well. Lockett was actually held out of practice this week which is probably not a big deal but just thought worth a mention.

I admit the playoff experience and the return of Lynch and Kam are great pluses for Seattle, and the Seahawks will be looking for redemption after blowing the big one last year. Still, I see these teams as more evenly matched than what the public perception currently is based on the previous game where Minny got basted and Seattle's win vs Arz. I will have to grab the points in this spot if it climbs near 7.

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PhillyBrown

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Posted: Jan. 7, 2016 - 11:52 PM ET #31

Totally with you on the Bengals though, they've set a franchise record for points allowed this season, they have healthy RBs and Eifert back.

Combine that with Green and they have enough to handle the Pitt defense, Mccarron has shown the ability to win games with good talent around him and he has that. And I'd say Dalton will be available if really needed also. Williams injury hurts Pitt a lot, he really did a great job stepping in for Bell, made important plays all the time that complemented the passing game so well that I think they really will miss him.

Bengals have taken some big steps forward this year and to not only finally get that playoff win but do it by beating their rival who has bullied them for so long would be huge and I see them having a big celebration in the jungle.

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Dogjimbo

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Posted: Jan. 8, 2016 - 2:08 AM ET #32

GL HEFF.

I'm on Hawks and Pitt. STEELERS... go figure

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fadeORdie

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Posted: Jan. 8, 2016 - 3:55 AM ET #33

Good luck sir

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suuma

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Posted: Jan. 8, 2016 - 5:34 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Good luck sir

Appreciate it

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suuma

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Posted: Jan. 8, 2016 - 10:47 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by JBone_Texas:

Nice writeup.

I'm not settled on this game yet so I'm not disagreeing just adding a few thoughts for caution.

Seattle on 3rd straight post-season with 2 past SB runs. That is a lot of games and no precedent for a team making 3 straight SB's. Lynch in particular if he plays is of concern their, aging, coming off injury, and tons of workload over the past 2 seasons.

Seattle o line troubles all year. Wilson helps negate just how bad they have been by avoiding sacks. They began to gel a bit run blocking anyways with Rawls (he played in Minn game), but have regressed recently. There is no history this year that Lynch has been effective or up to previous standards.

At the current spread 5.5 if the game switched to being played at home in Seattle the line in that case would be Seattle -11, perhaps -11.5. An interesting concept to look at in terms of value.

First matchup of these teams in Minn was a bad situation for Minn. They came in 8-3 leading the division and off a quality win at the time vs. Atlanta. Seahawks were on a roll starting 2-4 and coming in 6-5 fighting for their playoff life. Minn was down 4 defensive starters, 2 safeties, LB A. Barr (injured early in game), and DT Linval Joseph. Seattle took advantage of the injuries and lack of Minn focus to get up 21-0 early. Minn is not built to come from behind against anyone, once they were out of their gameplan and given the scenario they didn't put up much fight.

Seattle is a VERY popular team amongst bettors, especially in the playoffs due to past success. That is already partially reflected in the line, and will likely grow more so up until kickoff.

Like the Vikings blowout win over a disinterested and terrible defensive NYG team, I wouldn't put to much into last weeks results of Seattle blowing out Arizona on the road. Arizona knew they were playing for nothing and didn't put up much fight after getting down early.

I'm not too keen on Bridgewater or the entire Vikings team so not sure I can back them but if the line grows high enough (+7 minimum) I'd have to strongly consider. Minn isn't great but they also didn't get blown out in most games, including games against quality opponents/playoff teams Denver, Arizona, and KC (won).

At +7 or more your asking for a repeat of a blowout. It could go that way but Seattle doesn't have the offensive firepower to support that result on any consistent basis.

Thanks for the great stuff. Based on the whole season, Teddy and this OL have to prove they can beat the Seahawks defense with Kam Chancellor back. Can't see that but you made some good points!