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TeaserSystem week 13- YTD posted 42-20 (68%)

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Posted: #26
I've never seen anything where you only have to lock in 2 games. But if you have, better for you. 
 
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Posted: #27
NO screwed me too from having a huge teaser week
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Spreadbusters:


Thanks for your reply,I wish I had checked back in time to see these suggestions because you only missed one team,that being the Saints and wouldn't ya know that's the one I chose, lol,along with Green Bay on a 2 team teaser.You are right College football is just to unpredictable for teasers,and little more predictable using them in the NFL.That don't seem to stop me though as I'm a sucker for them and Parlay's. I've been gambling for 35 years and you would think by now I'd flip the script and start betting 90% of straight plays but since my bank roll to gamble with is so small I guess I feel like I need all the value in getting as many points as I can, failing to see the whole time that I'm reducing my odds to winning to like 25%, of winning instead of 50 %.I'd welcome any tips that you may have in using teasers in the NFL? tell me if I'm wrong but it seems to me like teasing up most road dogs of 7 points or more are better than teasing down 7point or less home favorites? thanks for your input Teasersystem!

I haven't worked up the full numbers for 7 point teasers but last week I did on 6 point ones. Here's a few quick hitters on the results. 

Road dogs and road favs perform slightly better than home teams. 

The best bets appear to be teasing up road dogs getting up to 5.5 points, with up 0-2 being best (hits 80%). 

Teasing down road favs at -9.5 to 10.5 is also great at over 80%. 

Home favs at -6.5-7.5 are strong at 77%. 

I'd stay away from home dogs getting 6-8 as those are barely better at than 50%. 

Don't take GB, SF as road dogs because they're less than 50%.

Take New England, Denver, Seattle and SD as they're above 90% as road dogs. 

Take KC, Dallas, Indy, TN as road favs as they're abov 80%. 

Don't take Vikings, rams, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Detroit, buffalo as road favs as they're at or below 57%. 

Take Cincy, Denver, NE, Seattle, Atlanta, Pitt, Miami, Minnesota as home dogs as they're all above 87%. 

Don't take Jacksonville, GB, Oakland, TN, TB, Giants as home dogs as they're below 55%. 

Take Carolina, Giants, Denver as home favs as they're above 82%. 

Don't take browns, Jacksonville, Atlanta, TB as home favs as they're below 47%.

Hope that's helpful. 
 
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Posted: #29
Good job this week, I also hit my teaser rather easily picking dall,nyg,new eng and Indy. 

Wishing you luck this upcoming week. 
 
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Posted: #30
Thanks for all the information Teasersystem...this will be helpful I'm sure.My book only allows 6 pt teasers so this will be even better. 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Teasersystem:


I haven't worked up the full numbers for 7 point teasers but last week I did on 6 point ones. Here's a few quick hitters on the results. 

Road dogs and road favs perform slightly better than home teams. 

The best bets appear to be teasing up road dogs getting up to 5.5 points, with up 0-2 being best (hits 80%). 

Teasing down road favs at -9.5 to 10.5 is also great at over 80%. 

Home favs at -6.5-7.5 are strong at 77%. 

I'd stay away from home dogs getting 6-8 as those are barely better at than 50%. 

Don't take GB, SF as road dogs because they're less than 50%.

Take New England, Denver, Seattle and SD as they're above 90% as road dogs. 

Take KC, Dallas, Indy, TN as road favs as they're abov 80%. 

Don't take Vikings, rams, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Detroit, buffalo as road favs as they're at or below 57%. 

Take Cincy, Denver, NE, Seattle, Atlanta, Pitt, Miami, Minnesota as home dogs as they're all above 87%. 

Don't take Jacksonville, GB, Oakland, TN, TB, Giants as home dogs as they're below 55%. 

Take Carolina, Giants, Denver as home favs as they're above 82%. 

Don't take browns, Jacksonville, Atlanta, TB as home favs as they're below 47%.

Hope that's helpful. 

Where do you get all these stats??? Want to show them?  It is hard to believe.  Are you telling me that teasing home dogs of 6-8 (say 6pts teas you getting 12-14 pts) is barely 50% win?????  And you must have stats from 10+ years now I suppose cause when was the last time NE or Sea were home dogs?  
 
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Posted: #32
I wondered that myself. Only three times since 2002 were pats home dogs. The last was in 2013 against Denver. The time before that was in 2005.
 
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Posted: #33
????
 
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Posted: #34
 
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Posted: #35
I'm using the last 5 years of games and manually pulled the spreads from covers. 

I'm not going to share my spreadsheet though. 
 
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Posted: #36
Teaser we using Oakland +16.5 in our Week 14 teasers?
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Teasersystem:

I'm using the last 5 years of games and manually pulled the spreads from covers. I'm not going to share my spreadsheet though.


So your going only by one game as pats were home dog for your analysis.
 
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Posted: #38
how do you guys like this 13 pt teaser....

DET +5
MIami +15
ATL +6
Pit +10
 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by mashup:

I wondered that myself. Only three times since 2002 were pats home dogs. The last was in 2013 against Denver. The time before that was in 2005.

Not sure where you're getting your info but NE was a home dog twice in 2014, to Denver and Cincy. They smashed both those teams for easy straight up wins. 

I get that you don't like playing to such a small sample size but that the sample size is so small also tells you a lot. 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Teasersystem:

Quote Originally Posted by mashup:

I wondered that myself. Only three times since 2002 were pats home dogs. The last was in 2013 against Denver. The time before that was in 2005.
Not sure where you're getting your info but NE was a home dog twice in 2014, to Denver and Cincy. They smashed both those teams for easy straight up wins. I get that you don't like playing to such a small sample size but that the sample size is so small also tells you a lot.


Your absolutely right on 2014. I was reading from an article from 2013. So five times total since 02 they were dogs. That is a small sample size but it does tell you something.
I used to do teasers but stopped a few years ago. I started back when I seen your threads. I do my own picks but I look to see who you like as well. My only loss was the Seattle Tampa game.
Keep it going Teasersystem. And good luck this weekend.
 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by MaxMoneyMaker:

how do you guys like this 13 pt teaser....DET +5MIami +15ATL +6Pit +10

My only concern would be the Dolphins.
I'd probably jump all over the Broncos +14.
That defense will keep it close. That game will be won by a FG either way.
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