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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by trying2makeabuk:



Thanks for letting us all know what you're about... it helps!  Breakdown:

  • You posted nothing about this game beforehand
  • You received a +10 differential on the last play of the half, the likes of which has only happened once in the 30 years I have watched the NFL
  • You immediately showed up after that play talking garbage... even though, 99% of the time you would have been down 7 at HT, and not looking good at all!
  • Your "advice" on this game helped absolutely NOBODY, because nobody benefits from a douchebag who makes predictions after the game is already played out!

I bet you are 100% lifetime in your "posting after the fact" handicapping... congrats!



There are two kinds of posters on covers, separated by a large divide... those who know how to conduct themselves... and then there's you and all of the other sh!t stains like you!

This was illuminating!

 
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Posted: #52
That ridiculous play at end of half only reason this didn't cover.  Titans play pretty good D, but they didn't do anything offensively to cover that -14.  
 
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Posted: #53
i actually posted about buffalo today!!!! i went 5-1 with 1 pending. all in all a good day. if i post i give out facts. i dont throw out random garbage like you and shoot garbage down since you already made up your mind. good luck on the future tho!
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

That ridiculous play at end of half only reason this didn't cover.  Titans play pretty good D, but they didn't do anything offensively to cover that -14.  


Yep!


Seattle dominated... 400+ yds of offense to barely 200 for Tennessee... entire game decided by a single 10 point play... makes idiots look like geniuses and geniuses look like idiots... that's the way it goes!
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by trying2makeabuk:

i actually posted about buffalo today!!!!  

Yes I am aware that you posted about Buffalo in the 3rd quarter of that game... you posted that you thought they would come back and win... 

That's not exactly useful capping information, is it?
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



Yep!


Seattle dominated... 400+ yds of offense to barely 200 for Tennessee... entire game decided by a single 10 point play... makes idiots look like geniuses and geniuses look like idiots... that's the way it goes!

There were many plays that decided the game. Fitzpatrick's two picks. Zac Brown giving the ball to Wilson. Titans stupid offside on 3rd and 4 giving Seattle a first down. Even after the game you are still over hyping the Seahawks and telling yourself that Tennessee sucks. Dude, you barely beat Ryan Fitzpatrick at home and you did not cover. If Seattle was as amazing as you say and Tennessee was so awful then they should have won by a million and they did not. You didn't lose because of a botched fg return for a TD, you lost  because you underestimated Tennessee.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Kush18:


There were many plays that decided the game. 



Dude, you barely beat Ryan Fitzpatrick at home and you did not cover.



There was only one 10-pt play in that game... and it happened on what was essentially an extra-point attempt... cap that!



I did not play in that game or coach it... you must be confusing me with Marshawn Lynch... happens all the time!
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

The only thing Locker has done much better this year is INT, he has throw 0.

His ave per pass has fallen by .3.

Locker last season threw 3.4% INT's, this season 0% even though he has INT's dropped by defensive backs.

Fitz is a high INT thrower relative to other good QB's. 3.6% carrear, about the same as Locker last year, not this year.

I reported this last week VS KC and Fitz went out and threw 2 INT's at home.

Expect more of the same this week against an angry Seattle defense.......................................

Fitz did it again, back to back 2 int's games.

Seahawk defense gave-up just 6 pts in this game.

Seattle dominated the game, this will likely be one of the most lopsided games of the year, Seattle dominated so throughly.................

Looking at the stats with the strongest correlation to victory, Seahawks won the QBPR  by a whopping 51.7 pts, the ave pre pass battle by a huge 7.7 to 4.9 =2.8, the rushing battle 151-66 with a ave of 4.6-3.3.

According to my meterics the Seahawks out-played the Titans by 20 pts.

But the Titans recieved the  -- LUCK PLAYS -- in the game. Knowing this helps one gain value down the road......................................

 
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Posted: #59

Sh*t happens.  Buffalo clawed back from a 14 pt deficit.  That sucked too.  Eventually, that stuff balances itself out.

What really sucked though, was that Detroit and GB both covered.  Would've had a winning week if you pressed both leans which you were going to bet anyway, except you had too many games.

 
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Posted: #60
Claw... well stated... I capped it right, I lost, in shorter terms... but I like the way you always have a good read on reality!


Composite... yea, the Bengals game burned me, too... Basically, on this thread, I posted 5 winners and 3 losers... but 2 of those losers were Cincy and Seattle, which I would bet again next week, and would again... somewhere in here I also talked about Dallas over Washington...

But I just can't justify betting 8 NFL games in a single day... sometimes you just pick the wrong ones... so 2-3, with 2 bullshit losses, and 3 leans that all covered... 

Such is gambling...

 
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Posted: #61
Someone tried to suggest I should have known because Tennessee is aggressive on D and can force turnovers (as if Seattle isn't)... they made that comment immediately after the 10-pt swing before HT...


Obviously this person didn't watch the actual play... in which Seattle was kicking a FG that was essentially an XP... snap was perfect, and holder caught it, but just laid the ball on its side... then picked it up and tried to run for the TD, but when defenders got near him, he just threw it on the ground...

Tennessee had virtually nothing to do with that play... AND, even on the return, there was a blatant block in the back against the one guy who could have saved the TD...


Just appalling that someone could try to talk garbage about that game... but this is Covers, where scumbags are as plentiful as raindrops!
 
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Posted: #62
I personally don't like to lay more than 11 in any NFL game, but given what the claw said, you could have easily covered/pushed this game.

Fitz is the problem here. He is SO bad, the line couldn't be any lower than what it was making it a tough game to get to the wire to if you took Seattle when so many mistakes can be made by the home team.
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I personally don't like to lay more than 11 in any NFL game, but given what the claw said, you could have easily covered/pushed this game.

Fitz is the problem here. He is SO bad, the line couldn't be any lower than what it was making it a tough game to get to the wire to if you took Seattle when so many mistakes can be made by the home team.


I will almost never lay DD, but I think you have to make an exception with this team... I doubt they will be less than DD against very many teams at home the rest of the way... and I think they will cover more of them than not...


Margin of error is something much too complicated for the average football bettor to understand... for them, it is all black-and-white... if the game doesn't cover, you suck... if it does, you're a genius!

The sky must be pretty in their world...
 
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Posted: #64
True, true. And you see it all the time in my threads as well as yours.

For the record, in defense of picking Seattle, aside from the FG fiasco where they didn't even have the regular holder for the kick, Tennessee didn't get into the red zone until under 4 minutes in the FOURTH QUARTER. While 14 is a huge number, this one really should have gone your way (with at a minimum a push). It's a shame too because even 6 pt teases down (which I imagine there was a ton of) got burnt as well.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

Margin of error is something much too complicated for the average football bettor to understand... for them, it is all black-and-white... if the game doesn't cover, you suck... if it does, you're a genius!

The sky must be pretty in their world...

Change the word "cover" to "win' and you've described 90% of fans watching ESPN. And most bettors are no different than most fans.

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



I will almost never lay DD, but I think you have to make an exception with this team... I doubt they will be less than DD against very many teams at home the rest of the way... and I think they will cover more of them than not...


what about SF -4 this week? A sh*tty team can only do so much w home field advantage.

 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

what about SF -4 this week? A sh*tty team can only do so much w home field advantage.


Definitely caught my eye!  If anything, the fact the Titans covered this game only skews value in favor of those fading them again this week... 


I spend the first couple days looking at CFB, so I don't get too deep into the NFL until late in the week... but this is a likely play for me... pretty sure I will play the Jets (+4) against the Pats... Pats and Saints beat the living garbage out of each other, and I think the Pats walk into a bad situation here... physical Jets team is something they don't want to see... hopefully I can get 4.5 or better, but I would probably bite at 3.5...
 
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Posted: #68
You'll get 4 with +juice at best. No reason to bet it at 3.5 as you will be able to get it at 4 all throughout the week. It won't get to 4.5 in my opinion and if it does you likely won't have time to catch it before it is driven back to 4.
 
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Posted: #69
Tennessee was the right side here, there was a ton of sharp money that came in late on the titans. They covered the points with ease even with an incompetent qb 
 
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Posted: #70
iceblood u suck
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

Tennessee was the right side here, there was a ton of sharp money that came in late on the titans. They covered the points with ease even with an incompetent qb 


What planet are you from?  


If your reasoning for saying Tennessee was the right side, is the fact that "sharp money" came in light... then I have no interest in your opinion.  "Sharp" bettors... don't follow "sharp" money... they ARE the sharp money!  By definition, therefore, you are NOT SHARP!  So who cares how you evaluate "right" or "wrong" sides...


Fact is, up until the last minute of the game, Titans fans were still sweating it... but yea, they covered easily!



Scal... pretty much thinking the same... probably not gonna see a 4.5... 4 will be fine with me... pretty sure the Jets will win, or it will be a 19-17 kind of a game... 



 
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Posted: #72
I had the Hawks too. If that game is played 10 times with all things being equal they cover 8.  Titan backers you got your 20%, at one point it was nearly 400 yds to 100.   You won but it wasn't the right side, it shows why it's so tough to hit 58%.
 
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Posted: #73
 still talking about it? Please stop. 
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



What planet are you from?  


If your reasoning for saying Tennessee was the right side, is the fact that "sharp money" came in light... then I have no interest in your opinion.  "Sharp" bettors... don't follow "sharp" money... they ARE the sharp money!  By definition, therefore, you are NOT SHARP!  So who cares how you evaluate "right" or "wrong" sides...


Fact is, up until the last minute of the game, Titans fans were still sweating it... but yea, they covered easily!



Scal... pretty much thinking the same... probably not gonna see a 4.5... 4 will be fine with me... pretty sure the Jets will win, or it will be a 19-17 kind of a game... 



 
Jeez.... take it easy pal. I am giving my opinion,  and I think titans were the right side.....lets just agree to disagree. If you think seachickens were the right side then great
 
 
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Posted: #75
ice4blood , this guy is an idiot, never tail him. 2 cents
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