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The Mighty Pats vs. what's left of the Packers tonight on NBC

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Posted: #126

Quote Originally Posted by bigtony29:

This one is a no-brainer for me. You guys always try and overthink these games but Flynn v.s. Brady... if this line were 24 i wouldn't trust taking the Pack. 

 

 

Look, if you can't get past "Flynn vs. Brady" then you definetely haven't overthought this one.  On September 30, 2001, people weren't "overthinking" "Brady vs. Manning" and they lost that bet by 45 points!

 

Colts 44 Patriots 13 (Tom Brady's first career start 9/30/01 - the Pats were a 14-point dog)

 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

Speaking on behalf of all Packer +14 backers, I don't think more than a very small number of us think this is a "can't miss" bet just because we're taking 14 or 15 points.  I certainly don't think that.  Have you talked yourself into believing that the oddsmakers have succeeded in drawing the majority of the action on Green Bay?




No way everyone still hammering NE
 
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Posted: #128

Quote Originally Posted by bigtony29:

This one is a no-brainer for me. You guys always try and overthink these games but Flynn v.s. Brady... if this line were 24 i wouldn't trust taking the Pack. I think NE proved last week that they're not a team that has a let down and they don't take weeks off. 

 

 

Then why are they only 9-4 ATS and not 13-0 ATS?  And what happened in Cleveland?

 
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Posted: #129
Did anyone actually watch the Packers backup qb play last week ? cmon - he blows ! and against Tom Brady at home ?? - Patriots will crush !
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

Look, if you can't get past "Flynn vs. Brady" then you definetely haven't overthought this one.  On September 30, 2001, people weren't "overthinking" "Brady vs. Manning" and they lost that bet by 45 points!

 

Colts 44 Patriots 13 (Tom Brady's first career start 9/30/01 - the Pats were a 14-point dog)

good point i think you accidently switched the score tho

 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

If the Patriots were a religious cult, you'd be wearing a robe right now.



With a red, white, and blue hood while holding a flaming torch fueled by animal lard circling their TV chanting:

Bundchen, Bundchen, Bundchen (in muffled grunts)
 
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Posted: #132

Quote Originally Posted by Dwood:

Patriots have already won 3 games in a row by 20+!!  As respected as you are Bator, this seems like an odd spot to go out on your shield.  By the way this exact same organization won 8 in a row by 17+ in 2007.  This team looks to be playing at that level right now.  The Patriots have been exceptions to your statistical argument twice in the last four years.  Just Saying...

def something to at least consider

 
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Posted: #133

Quote Originally Posted by peterhugh1213:

Did anyone actually watch the Packers backup qb play last week ? cmon - he blows ! and against Tom Brady at home ?? - Patriots will crush !

 

Yeah and he had no idea he would be playing then and now has had a full week to prepare as the starter.

 
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Posted: #134

Quote Originally Posted by bigtony29:

This one is a no-brainer for me. You guys always try and overthink these games but Flynn v.s. Brady... if this line were 24 i wouldn't trust taking the Pack. I think NE proved last week that they're not a team that has a let down and they don't take weeks off. With Belichick an Brady against a Rookie Qb this game has blowout written all over it. And if Vegas wanted all action on NE this line wouldve been 11 or 12. 

 

 

Why would they want that?  The Patriots scare the penny-pinching weasels in Vegas, always have.

 
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Posted: #135

GL Bator - I like the Pack too.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #136

Quote Originally Posted by bigtony29:

This one is a no-brainer for me. You guys always try and overthink these games but Flynn v.s. Brady... if this line were 24 i wouldn't trust taking the Pack. I think NE proved last week that they're not a team that has a let down and they don't take weeks off. With Belichick an Brady against a Rookie Qb this game has blowout written all over it. And if Vegas wanted all action on NE this line wouldve been 11 or 12. This line is right where it should be. NE 34 GB 14.

 

 

Well, if you feel the line is right where it should be, then why do you believe you're getting any value here?

 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

Well, if you feel the line is right where it should be, then why do you believe you're getting any value here?



i think everyone already knew that bigtony wasn't very intelligent without needing to be called out for his ignorance.
 
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Posted: #138

Guess it would be asking too much to sqeeze another "lean" on today's action out of you?

 
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Posted: #139
I HAVE PATS TT OVER 28.5
 
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Posted: #140
great research and not to say I don't believe in trends and such but if the line doesn't move, that would concern me more.  The weather may play a factor in keeping the game close  as running game will need to be exploited as well as the fact your qb is second string.  That being said  i still need to go Pats. small
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

I was sending it in on NE but after reading your post I'm backing off the game  I just can't find the courage to bet such a team LIKE gb  playing lousy ball  AND without their QB 

 

 

 

All of us are fickle in our perecptions of teams from week to week in the NFL.  Exactly one week ago at this hour, prior to the letdown game at Ford Field and the Rodgers concussion, no one in all the land was suggesting that the Packers were playing poorly.  The sentiment was very much the opposite.  How quickly the stock drops!

 
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Posted: #142
hate this game, no play for me,  best of luck on your play 
 
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Posted: #143

Quote Originally Posted by bigtony29:

This pick is about as good as your Utah 2nd half over last night

 

 

That was a great pick last night but it didn't win.  They're not all going to win.  Fifty percent of all of this shit comes down to luck.  All we can do is try to figure out the other 50% and make our plays and get good lines.

 
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Posted: #144

Quote Originally Posted by efro:



i think everyone already knew that bigtony wasn't very intelligent without needing to be called out for his ignorance.

If only we could all be as intelligent as you and Master Bator this world would be a much better place

 
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Posted: #145
Any other plays Bator?
 
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Posted: #146
Thanks and GL Mr B.
 
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Posted: #147
  I wouldnt fade the Pats.  They are a machine operating on another level offensively. I cant see flynn keeping up over 4 quarters. 
  Nice write up and research, but most of those situations wouldnt compare to this one (GB without their QB against a team/QB operating on another level - in front of their home crowd).

Just dont see how GB +14 is a good play, but best of luck.


 
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Posted: #148

Quote Originally Posted by bigtony29:

This pick is about as good as your Utah 2nd half over last night

 

 

I invite you to bet the second half under in the four remaining Jazz road games this season that will be played on a Saturday night following a game the night before.  Betcha won't do it, will ya, bigtony29?

 
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

All of us are fickle in our perecptions of teams from week to week in the NFL.  Exactly one week ago at this hour, prior to the letdown game at Ford Field and the Rodgers concussion, no one in all the land was suggesting that the Packers were playing poorly.  The sentiment was very much the opposite.  How quickly the stock drops!

A few weeks ago the Eagles were unbeatable and the best team ever.  Now its the pats.  In a few weeks it will probably be another team. 

Gamblers have such short memories.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #150
GB- Cant run the ball and can't throw the ball with Flynn. Where the fuck do you see the value in a team that will struggle to get a measley first down?
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