The mother of all writeups. In Belichick we trust

In terms of match up the key for the Rams is Gurley and just Gurley. If Gurley does well, the rest of the offense will carburate. If he doesn`t Gilmore will handle Woods, and Belli will find the appropriate 2 man scheme to deal with Cooks. 

For the Pats they have too many options. Run with Michel. If it doesn`t work, attack Littleton on coverage against James White as the Saints did with Kamara. Then you also have Gronk who has no one to cover him. Then you have Marcus Peters waiting to be killed. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by gutinstinctus]However, Cropduster`s post was about "talent" and that is an abstract discussion where you do have to compare the same positions and not as a matchup. What I am trying to show is that it is not true that the Rams are so much better in raw talent. /Quote]

Considering Brady's salary accounts for 12.21% of the Patriot's salary cap (compared to Goff's modest 4.2%) 

...and add in that Goff has had a better year at QB, with all of that extra cap space you are damn right the talent is on the Rams side.  Rams put up 32.9 ppg on the year including games w/ Kupp, and 32 ppg w/o him, so while his loss will be missed, it is not game changing.  Rams still put nearly an extra TD  per game in terms of points scored.

Patriots are at their best when Michel rushes for 100 yards.  That won't happen on Sunday if the NFCC game is any indication, Rams held the Saints 2-headed monster to 46 yards rushing total conversely Patriots were ranked 29th during regular season in Opp. ypc for RB's at 4.9, Gurley + Anderson should have a field day.  The Rams 3 losses during the regular season were when their rushing attack was held to under 100 yards.

Loss of Gordon (720 rec yards) is actually a bigger hit for the Patriots than the loss of Kupp (566 rec yards).  You want to talk talent? Between Woods and Cooks you have two 1200 yard receivers, which dwarfs possession receiver Eldelman @ 850 rec yards.  Gronk has only had 5 games with 75 or more reception yards across 20 games and with Michel to be limited they will need him to step up and what could be his final game as a Patriot.  The question is, are they going to need him to be more focused for blocking duties?

Great reading no matter who you  like.. Need more threads like this... TY

[Quote: Originally Posted by Goat_12]

Thanks for joining in Goat. Interesting to have you since you liked the Pats vs the Chiefs, but now like the Rams. 

1) I will skip the salary discussion, because it is irrelevant in relation to the skills of a player. In terms of passing stats, both QBs had a very similar season. However, there is way more to being a quarterback than just your completion%, y/g, average yards per pass, TD/Int Ratio, etc. 

2) You do realize that Edelman missed the first 4 weeks. When he started playing he was coming from almost a 2 year absence. Rust accumulated through that time. Check his recent stats though (151, 96 and. Edelman will never be the playmaker that Brandin Cooks is, but from what I understand, just as it happened with Welker, his skills are related to great route running and the ability to connect with Brady with his eyes closed. 

3) I agree on Woods and Cooks. Woods is leagues ahead of Hogan. 3rd receivers lets call it a push. The difference for this game is who is covering them? 

4) Also agree on Gurley and Anderson, and that is the biggest key of this game. To have a shot, the Rams need to run well. New England may not run well and they still have a shot.

Also, just as there is a perception that the Rams D is great against the run because of their last two games, New England should also receive a similar evaluation since they erased Melvin Gordon and Damien Williams. They did get burnt through the air by Williams, just as the Rams suffered with Kamara. 

4) Michel won´t get to 100 because this will be a 3 way committe. I expect James White to be the leading back. He is the one that creates more unpredictability and as good as Littleton has been lately against the run, he is a liability in coverage (similar to what happens with Hightower with the difference that Hightower is very rarely covering the pass)

5) I think Kupp´s loss is abysmal. I put it like this, with Cooper Kupp playing, Id take the Rams spread in a heartbeat. Here is where a man to man shudtdown cornerback simplifies things. With the lack of Kupp and the lack of good tight ends from the Rams, New England can put Gilmore on Woods, apply a gameplan similar to the one they had vs Tyreek Hill for Cooks, and force Goff to look for his very mediocre other receivers. 

6) Gronk may or may not fill up the stat sheet. I went with him hard last game with his receiving yards, and I´m not pulling the trigger on this one. But he will have at least a couple key conversions on 3rd downs. The Rams will know it is coming, yet they won´t be able to stop it. 

1. I got Gronk´s over 3.5 @1.72 though... Still your over 4.5 with better odds should be ok. There is one additional consideration. The Rams´ pass rush is all about interior pressure. Donald and Suh. So you probably will double Donald with the Guard and the Center. That means this is a game in which Gronk should not be relevant for pass protection. This means, we could see him running more routes than usual. 

This pressure thing also started generating some concern to me. In theory, the weaker member of the Pats O line is Thuney. He is the one which will be dealing the most with Donald. The Pats have looked great against KC and LAC, but those are more edge rushing D Lines. The Pats´ Tackles have proved themselves. Sunday is Thuney´s turn to do so under the spotlight. A lot of my focus will be solely on that matchup.  

2. The thing about Dorsett is that the Rams have been one of the best teams covering the slot. I don´t have the balls to pull the under bet on Edelman because he is Brady´s favorite target, but his matchup is tough. If that is the case, the easier matchup will be Marcus Peters at RCB (and whoever tries to cover Gronk of course). And Dorsett plays on Peters´ side over 50% of his snaps. I´m hoping that he breaks loose twice, and even once could do it. He is way faster than Peters.  

3. The more I look into this game the more satisfied I am of having bet just 0,5 u on the Pats ML. Who knows, maybe I end up finding a spot for the Rams live. Last weekend I did so when they were trailing by 3, and I was on the Saints pregame. However, I do predict a slower 1st half for the Pats. If they defer the kick, I can definitely see them trailing at half time. Imagine Brady visualizing this game... I´m sure he dreams with that 4th Q comeback, throwing to his most faithful player ever, to make the last catch of his career: a Super Bowl winning TD. 

A lot of good analyses to this write up – the truth is either team is good enough to win on a given day, you’ve given a lot of justifiable reasons why the Pats could win.  From these, I’d like to highlight ones I think are the most important for this game and – why I think the Rams will win.

1.     1)       Getting to Brady. As you correctly note, you aren’t getting to Brady unless you have a bit of time; you don’t have time unless the Pats are in unfavorable down and distance.  This is why it is imperative that the Rams’ defense forces some of these situations both by limiting Pats’ run game in early downs and, generally, crowding the box in the front seven and playing a good deal of press coverage in early downs. I think the Rams’ Dline and front 7 are good enough to force enough 3^rd and longs to get to Brady.  This will be a key.  When they have opportunities, they must be aggressive and bring pressure from different places. Tom Brady needs to get hit, go down a time or two, and be pressured on 8 or 10 passing attempts.  Finally, I have to say, as great as Brady is, I think he doesn’t play as well as he did to win the game against the Chiefs. Despite the two interceptions, he got into rhythm against a mediocre defense and played unbelievably as he needed to win that game. Especially if the Rams can get some pressure and limit Pats’ rushing success, he doesn’t play that well two games in a row.  He’ll be good, but not great.

 2.       Todd Gurley. This one ain’t rocket science – the best RB in football when healthy.  None of us know for sure, but if he is able to play to his capability in the biggest game of his career, with the other pieces of this prolific offense the Rams absolutely can put 30+ points against this Patriots defense.  Gurley is a gamer and if he were seriously hurt, I think we would know.  Therefore I believe he shows up and plays like the unbelievable back that he is. He will demand the attention of the entire Pats defense – and they still won’t shut him down - and that will open the rest of Rams’ offense to success, particularly as the game goes on.  This game sees more points in the second half than the first.  Rams 34; Pats 27.

Thanks Delorean! 

I went through this arguing with Goat 12. His final reply was silence... I´ve heard that argument about Talib numerous times. The thing is, the schedule of the Rams with Talib was significantly softer: 

In terms of wide receivers and Quarterbacks, you cannot compare Minny, Green Bay, New Orleans and KC to the teams above. The only great team in WR-QB from those faced by Talib are the Chargers. 

I don´t think Talib helps against the big play. Talib is a smart CB but he has lost a lot of speed. He may have been in Cover 2, but Ted Ginn´s long catch on the NFC Championship game, was while being covered by Talib. He blew past him. I know it should be also and maybe even more so on the safety, but Talib has some responsibility to that catch. 

He is a good cornerback. But people overvalue him. At this  point he is an above average CB, but not the top 5 he used to be. Marcus Peters has been crap all season long. One of the worse valued cornerbacks by PFF. If his numbers were better with Talib playing it is because of the schedule. The Rams play each CB in their side, so Talib playing does not have much of an impact on Peters´ numbers. It would be different if they played man to man, so that we could conclude that Peters was now dealing with the 2nd WR

Thanks for your input!

Rams pressure. I put some thought yesterday to the getting to Brady argument. The Pats have been great against the Chargers and the Chiefs and that O Line has been hyped up. However, Chargers and Chiefs bring the pass rush mostly from the edges. 

The Rams are a different animal. It will be LG Thuney´s turn to show that he is up there with the level displayed by the tackles the last weeks containing Houston, Bosa, Ingram and co. Aron Donald is a different type of animal. Last Super Bowl, even when the stat sheet does not give enough credit to him, the key player was Fletcher Cox. As hard for me to say about the player I love the most from my Eagles, Donald is a league above Fletcher.  

Gurley. I´m not sure. It´s all a guessing game. I also think with 2 weeks rest, the adrenaline of this game and massive painkillers he should be in perfect shape. If he is 100% this game changes drastically. You would now have his legs, but most importantly his hands to attack the Pats´ greatest vulnerability. The thing is where his mind is at. I hope we get to see him on all cylinders and see how the GOAT schemes against him.  

Gurley´s unknown status is, now that I think so, maybe the biggest reason of why I´ve only bet smallish on the Pats right now. If he is and looks fine I may change in play. No need to rush the ML play. We bettors have the option to wait, see and analyze as the game goes by. Unfortunately with props, we cannot do that. 

Why did Achilles get banned?

Covers doesnt ban people for that, they would have just boxed him for a while to cool down...something else must have happened to warrant a banning...maybe he flew too close to the sun with his "hidden agenda" stuff...or else some of the books ganged up on CT here and forced them to ban him because he was posting winning plays too often...covers just lost one of this sites best all around capper...its a sad day for guys like myself and several others who's #1 purpose for using covers is about chatting with knowledgeable guys in order to beat the books.

To ban a respected capper like him after all these years so suddenly, something behind the scenes had to have occured.