The mother of all writeups. In Belichick we trust

If you don´t have time, stop now. If you don´t like to think, stop know. If you don´t like to discuss and dissect the greatest team sport in the world, stop know.

If you are still here, there are plenty of words coming. Pour yourself a beer or a coffee. Disclaimers made, here comes your surgeon. No bullshit. No “ohhh Edelman vs Cooks” meaningless hype here. No no no.  Go through my facts and points. Verify them.  PLEASE dispute and contradict my analysis. Tell me I am a moron. Im objective and willing to change my mind if you prove me wrong.  Lets all make some money out of this, and have some fun in the process. That is why I started posting more on Covers, handicapping can be monotone, and I cannot discuss with my idiotic friends, whose arguments are that “the Pats don’t lose 2 in a row” that “Kraft won´t lose on his 25 year” or that “Aaron Donald will have 8 sacks”.

A quick glance at Championship Weekend. I said it all that week: KC was a good matchup for the Pats. Why? Because of their rushing D. What happened in the game? NE rushed, and rushed, and kept on rushing. Belli was a master of mixing his RBs. If you allow the Pats to establish the run, you cannot stop that offense.

 I heard a billion times how NE´s defense was too slow and struggled mightily vs mobile QBs and was not going to be able to pressure Mahomes. Well, my TV screen showed Mahomes´ defecating face time and time again, with one of the “slow” Pats linemen breathing on his neck. Go check the QB hits and sacks stats for that game… you guys will be shocked. At home, against this old, fat, Galapagan tortoise of a defense, Mahomes had the worst completion percentage of his career. And it is all because of the hurried up throws and neutralization of his favorite targets when facing pressure. The true stud is and will always be Belichick, not Brady!

You may be wondering, why does this jackass care so much about Mahomes struggling? Well, because I can blame Andy Reid for a large part of it. I know he was losing. I know Williams had struggled. But you can´t give up the run in the first half. Yeah, you may say that in the end it was close, but that closeness was due to the GOAT player, (because the undisputed GOAT of this sport wears hoodies instead of pads on Sundays) throwing 2 very uncharacteristic unforced picks, one of them at the goal line (horrendous play call against the worst rushin D in football).

To beat the Pats the key is all about the running game, both on D  (try to make that offense a bit more predictable… how the hell can you defend against their play action when they are running well?) and offensively since the Pats´ rushing D has been for a long time and still is its main weakness.

The point is Sean McVay may be 25 years younger, and 475 pounds lighter than Andy Reid, but he is already miles ahead of him in terms of coaching and understanding the game. He won´t commit that mistake. He knows his running back corpse is the key to this game, just as it was on Phily´s last year Super Bowl and on many other cases I listed on my thread for the match against KC.

Ok, that was only the anesthesia… Due to numbness you may think there are reasons to take the Rams... hold it, now comes the scalpel.  

1. Rams defense vs running backs.

All season long the rams were crap against the rush. But the last two games they have impressed us. They anhilated Zeke. And they anhilated Ingram and Kamara´s ground attempts. Some will say Suh is playing like his former self and they are right. Some say that the Dallas O line was decimated and they are also right. Corey Littelton´s improvements have something to do.

What is yours truly´s take? They have improved, but they are not unbreakable. Sean Payton screwed that game one way… by not benching Ingram. All week this seemed as a game for Kamara. During the game, Kamara proved us right. Personally, I think that was a perfect game for both at the same time. Split backs, and if you didn´t like the D´s formation, just move Kamara to the slot. That versatility should be used to your favor. On the contrary, on obvious rushing downs we saw Ingram, and on obvious receiving downs we had Kamara. And even on those obvious downs, Kamara flamed the Rams through the air. I am a huge fan of hoodies… but blue or gray ones, not black ones with visors.

Here is where I love having Belly paired up with Josh McDaniels. He ain´t Sean Payton to miss the obvious. He has picked up on that in recent Super Bowls. The Pats are the kings of dismantling you as the game goes by.  If Sony Michel keeps finding Suh´s arms (or belly), we will get overdosed on James White. If Michel is finding daylight holes time and time again, Burkhead will join forces. Depending on the type of game we have, James White could become Weapon X.

My point: I don´t think the Rams rushing D is as good as its past two performances appear to show, but it is definitely better than KC´s. I think the Pats will be able to move the ball at a similar ypc rate than they did vs the Chiefs (which actually was not as good as one would think it was). However, even if the Rams D finds their stops, we know that McDaniels is the best man out there to find a way around. As opposed to the game vs KC, rushing is not the undisputed way to go…, this defense is more “balanced” but still has a lot of weaknesses. Also, TB12 is no slouch at reading the D, calling the audible and adjusting. I trust him better than I would trust Brees for this, and I trust him much better than I trusted the overrated Mr. Dakota. The only better guy in the world at doing this was Peyton Manning in All Madden level back in the late 2000s.

2. Rams Pass D 

If I were the Ram´s DC I would shadow Edelman with Talib. A taller, stronger and very experienced cornerback, covering a smallish possession receiver.

However, I think they probably won´t do it and will stick to Talib at left cornerback, Peters at right and the suprisingly good Coleman covering the slot, where Edelman usually aligns. Without shadowing this team held Michael Thomas on check… But Ted Ginn feasted on Talib. Aqib Talib struggles vs speed, but the Pats receivers we are used to hearing are almost the opposite from speed demons (slow angels?). The Pats may be missing Josh Gordon´s antics for this one, but not that much yet...

Robey Coleman has played very well and is one of the top rated slot cornerbacks this year. Do I trust him to handle Edelman? Absolutely not. The Saints held Thomas on hold from the slot by using double coverages. The problem is that not even the Rams safeties and linebackers knew the name of the Saints tight ends in that game once Ben Watson´s appendix decided to start doing the job that the refs finished. The Pats on the contrary have this robo-armmed mammoth playing what very likely is his last game. The double coverage that Thomas received enhanced Kamara´s huge game. If they do the same with Edelman, Gronk and James White will get plenty of TV time.  

Marcus Peters is a liability nowadays. The good thing for Peters is that he will probably match up a lot against Chris Hogan or Dorsett who won´t be able to exploit him as much. There is no way around it, Chris Hogan is not a good receiver, and if it weren´t for #12 he´d be a 3 stringer somewhere else, or maybe even out of the league. When we get Peters on Edelman, TB12 will be looking a lot to that direction. I wouldn’t be surprised either to see a deep bomb when Talib is on Dorsett or Patterson. That is the big man´s achilles heel, as shown by Ted Ginn.

The problem for the Rams, (shout out to Ben Watson´s appendix again for screwing my prop bet)  is covering the Tight End (they struggled all season despite that they play on a division in which only the 49ers have a decent TE). Can someone tell me which safety or which linebacker from the Rams can stand up to that task? Stop buying the “Gronk isn´t half what he used to”. Gronk´s stats have gone drastically down mainly because now he is used much more as a blocking tight end. He is not running routes as often. But Gronk is still the second best tight end in this league (forgive me Zach).  There is only one guy that the Rams faced which represents a contradiction to this “Rams suck vs TE” argument, and it is precisely Zach, who the Rams did hold on check. Let´s label that as variance.

The Rams have a good pass rush. However, as I mentioned for last game, it does not matter if you can rush the passer if New England is running the ball well. The so called “best pass rush D in the league” hit Brady once and sacked him ZERO times. To get to Brady, make sure you start forcing third and longs, and the way to get there is to make sure the Pats don´t have a 4+ yard average on 1 down. If you control those 1 downs, the pass rush will come by itself. Damn, should I be a defensive coordinator.

In summary, what do the Rams need to do on Defense?

1.       Contain the Pats yards per carry below 4.0.

2.       Once they do and McDaniels brings out James White (that is if he is not the go to guy from the beginning), find a way to avoid being Kamaraded again. Look at the footage from the Falcons Pats Super Bowl were White was on steroids.

3.       Limit Gronk on 2 and 3 and long, and trust that your CBs can slow down Edleman. Make them beat you with Chris Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson.

If you payed attention, that is an awfully lot to do. And that is why I would stick Talib on Edelman, let Peters and Coleman move around with Dorsett and Hogan, and double Gronk on 3 and longs. But Im smarter than half the DCs in this league.. the Rams D will pay the toll for not doing the obvious.  

The real question… can they stop the Pats? No.  The Pats will no doubt score 20+ But the Rams need to make sure that they don´t get to 28+. I don´t think so either, unless we have a very slow paced game all 4 quarters.

3. Pats rushing D.

Something similar as with the Rams happens with the Pats D. They struggled against the run all season long, but held Gordon and Williams on check recently. A fully rested Todd Gurley is not an almost quadriplegic Gordon, nor a decent RB whose anorexic head coach does not know how to design a gameplan.

The key to this game is Gurley. If Gurley constantly rushes for 4.5 and Goff does not turn the ball over, I believe the Rams can pull it off. I believe Gurley has not been at 100% and I believe he will be in very good shape. But all of that is guessing. I actually have no clue. Maybe he is more banged up than what I think. Maybe he is in a downfall. Maybe he has had clashes with the coaching staff since CJ assumed a more relevant role. We do not know. And this is what makes this match a tough one to handicap. The most important weapon´s status is a huge question mark.

Anyways, if Gurley is not at his best, CJ is a solid back up. He knows the Pats, he has good hands, and he has a good ability to find the right holes in the line. However, he will never be the tackle breaking machine that is #30. The Rams need him badly.  

I know receptions by running backs are not considered to be “rushing” but I prefer addressing that point here. The Pats struggled mightily all season, and they also struggled last weekend. If, at any point in the game you get Hightower on Gurley or CJ, don´t overthink stuff and just throw the ball to them. The more success you have rushing, the more often you may find that matchup, since on third and longs he won´t be covering.

Again, this is where Gurley is key as well. The Rams need him rushing, but the Rams also need his hands. Simply put, the Rams need the ball in Gurley´s hands. And against a defense that struggled against the run (Im very skeptic about its recent improvements), and that struggled and still struggled against receiving running backs, Gurley is the key. 

Pats Pass D.

Don´t lie, Chiefs´ backers. You were not expecting the show that NE´s defensive line put on. The kid ended on his back in 25% of his passes. The Pats did receive some help… by KC´s lack of rushing game. It is way easier to pressure the QB if you know a pass is coming and you can bull rush to the QB without thinking of opening up a massive gap for the RB. Don´t fall for the trap, don’t overestimate that D Line now. Andy Reid made it easy for them.

If the Rams remain balanced, Goff will be fine. The problem for Goff is that NE has a solid secondary and they are not exactly stacked in terms of receivers.

I´m 99,9% sure that Belichick has not pronounced the last names Higbee or Everett the past week… why should he? Due to this, I expect them to catch more than their average 0,3 receptions per game, but nothing worrisome.  I expect Gilmore to take on Robert Woods, but there is some margin of doubt since Woods is usually in the slot (not that it will stop that assignment as proved by Belli moving Gilmore to cover and anhilate Travis Kelce on the 2 half). Gilmore will not take on Cooks. And I cannot see Belly wasting Gilmore to cover Reynolds. Anyways, if Gilmore takes Woods, he is out of the game. If Gilmore takes Reynolds, he is out of the game.

Speedsters and not possession receivers are the ones who burn the Pats, and Brandin Cooks is smiling because he knows this. Also, last year, if he does not get injured, the Pats 100% win that Super Bowl. Imagine the drive that he will have. Yet, Belly will have his safeties be extremely careful of not letting him get ahead. This is Weapon X for the Rams (I know it aint exactly X, since he is everything but Mr. Incognito… but if the Rams are rushing well, Cooks should burn the Pats with play action for a deep one).  

The Rams don´t have decent tight ends. Reynolds is a mediocre 3 receiver. It is Cooks, and it is Gurley (or Woods if Gilmore doesn´t shadow him). That is the recipe for them to do some damage.

My final thoughts.

Offensively the Rams have two options to move the ball downfield. Defensively, they will need a huge performance from their D-Line, similar to that Giants D Line with Pierre Paul, Tuck and Osi. All teams that have made the Pats struggle in the Super Bowl (except for Atlanta) have had A+ D-Lines playing at an A++ level. One could argue that this D-Line is up to the level of those two (I think it has a better superstar but overall it is worse), however NY and Phi played the games of their lives… Donald and Co will need to step it up even more.

Offensively, the match up for the Pats is more appealing. Gronk has a great matchup. James White has a great match up. Sony Michel draws more skepticism given the recent success the Rams have had against the run, but 3 weeks ago I would’ve said this was a delightful match up. They can exploit Marcus Peters. No one can cover Gronk one on one from that D. Defensively they have the best CB in the league. They have a defense that proved it is not the dumpster that people thought it to be, and that had the Golden Kid on his knees half the game in Arrowhead, despite being composed of old and fat bricks.

They have much more ways to win this game. And… they have Brady. And… they have Emperor Palpatine calling the plays.

I think we will be talking about this Rams team in years to come (the problem is that the NFC is getting awfully tough). I like them. They were actually the largest future I have ever placed (@1.7 to win their division) But it aint their time yet. This year, I´ll be wearing a blue hoodie. And I will admire what may be the last tango from the GOAT among all coaches of all sports. If the GOAT retires, Brady won´t even be close to winning another one. Mark that in stone.

BETS:

1. Patriots Money Line (Im sorry, you should’ve not avoided the early hype. However when I wrote the thread we were already at -2,5 so…) I have bet some at 1.78. I will wait a bit and if it gets to 1.8 I will take some more. With or without an extra bet, I will look for the in play bet just as I did in the Chiefs game. Lets hope that the Rams start ahead.  

2. Under 28,5 1 half points (got it as soon as it opened).  

3. Under 72.5 receiving yards Robert Woods.

4. CJ Anderson longest reception over 4.5 @2.1 (This is a retarded bet I found at Pinny, with great odds) CJ averages 8 yards per reception). If he goes catchless the bet is cancelled.

Plenty more props coming.

GL and enjoy the last master class by the greatest mind this sport has had.  

This is on par with a scalabrine write-up! Nice

Nobody thought the great Roger Staubach would lose 2 superbowls in a row. "Staubach won't allow it!" screamed the all knowing fans of the NFL. Tom Landry (thought to God by many) was too sophisticated, too classy, and had the best quarterback the game has ever seen. What happened in that 2nd superbowl is what will happen to Brady and Belichick in this superbowl. If you weren't born yet, or if you were just crawling around with a filled smelly diaper, google NFL superbowls and learn something.

4. Special teams. I don´t go into much detail and I am absolutely no guru in this. For this match Id think that the Rams have a slight advantage. Between the kickers I think its a push, between the punters I´d take Hekker. Return-wise the Rams have a better ypr and also a higher ratio of touchbacks per kickoff. But I don´t think it is a factor that may move the balance at least in this specific matchup where there is no significant advantage. 

5. Agree with the O line, although it can be disrupted. It may have been better last year with Solder yet Brady was hit time and time again by the Eagles D line. To me the key is to make that offense a bit more predictive and that starts by handling the run in 1st down. Patricia managed to get a lot of pressure to Brady  this year, and it all started by controlling the average ypc of Michel. 

BOL, I saw you are going BIG on the hoodie as well.