Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
I wanted to open this thread because we had these discussions several times this season.
Week in, week out a lot of people say capping matchups or crunching numbers doesn't matter, you just need to read into the lines and their movement and read what some consensus sites tell you.
https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/statistics/2015-2016/ats_regular.html
Of the best 10 ATS teams, 9 have made the playoffs. The only team, the Jets, still ended up 10-6.
These best 10 ATS teams went 62.5% ATS.
Good teams make the playoffs. They make the playoffs because they have the better matchup in the majority of their games.
If you are able to cap matchups, spots and know how to deal with numbers, you will have success.
98% of the guys who use the words "public", "sharps", "squares", "trap", "rigged", "fixed" don't have a good, consistent and documented winning record. They pop up here and there, crying about a fix and the "public bloodbath", but none of them provides us with pregame picks and a solid record. That's a fact.
But I can right away tell you a decent number of cappers who hit 55-70% consistently on NFL & CFB year in year out who just cap the games and never use some bullsh*t angles like public vs. sharps.
You can track back all the games in which the "public" is all over one side. It evens out in the long run.
I've had a very rough season, because I watched too much pre-season and was blinded at the beginning of the season. Then I wasn't able to see some transitions during the season. It happens. I've learned some important lessons this season.
If someone disagrees on what I've just said, please attach your documented record and post some links of your threads.
Hey Suuma,
I'm 7-1 in the NFL this year, was 8-10 last year and hit 65% the year prior. Before that, I didn't aggressively keep or post my covers record.
I think you are misconstruing what consensus is and what it can tell you.
If you want to use it as a shortcut to cap a game, I believe it is effective IN ADDITION to what you have researched on a game.
Example: I capped the Falcons +7 over Carolina using consensus but also noted many other salient points with regard to ATL covering (i.e. The obvious 'it's Atl's Super Bowl', it's a division game and the familiarity is there (and division games are usually more low scoring than high scoring because opponents know eachother) so points are at a premium , Carolina had one of the worst quarters of the year giving up 28 the week prior, etc.).
I also explained in that thread that Carolina bashed ATL the previous two match-ups 72-3 and that -7 for Carolina could appear to be bargain (roping in squares which it did).
I went on about line value given that ATL was only an -9-/11 pt road dog in the previous match-up and a 6 point swing would put them at a number below 7 (this is line reading in part) so 7 had value. I noted the consensus on Carolina.
As an isolated point in addition to research, consensus and line reading is valid IMO.
They are not valid in their own right to cap a game but can be put along side other info as stated above.
I use public/sharp info too.
I use it because it had been verified as legitimate by a director of sportsbook gaming (Bob Scucci) publicly week in, week out. I'll trust a living breathing line setter when he says things about public/sharp support.
I don't come on here and say, "The public is going to drown in its blood tonight", as a basis for a cap but public support in isolated instances can give me pause. As can sharp support. It is a PIECE of info we can use.
As far as games being fixed? Unfortunately much of that talk stems from the NBA.
Many over/unders (and indirectly and directly, spreads too) were manipulated by Tim Doneghy. He documents in his book that many refs were involved in this fixing (is anyone gullible enough to believe David Stern's theory Tim as a 'lone wolf'). He was arrested for these charges and served time for them.
I bet on some his games. Hence, I bet on fixed games. Yes, games admittedly fixed by refs which affect your bankroll.
Refs in the NBA also have a way of dictating scoring pace and favoring stars. They have an ENORMOUS amount of power. That is, in its purest form, fixing a game you have money on. That is where the anger and hyperbole come from. I understand their frustration although it's taken way out of bounds sometimes (most times)!
Also in there NBA, bad teams tank routinely. Yes they 'throw' the game for higher draft picks. That is essentially a fixed/rigged game.
That is where all the fixed talk comes in, for the NBA at least.
You have bombastic posters here with annoying 'fixed!' headlines but that shouldn't take away from the point games can be fixed/rigged to a certain degree and they can be studied to find out which team is dumping.
Crunching numbers does matter. When a guy shi*s on a thread because the public is all over one side, that is not a legitimate counter. But it doesn't mean public/sharp support can't be incorporated into a cap.
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