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The Super Bowl (7-2 playoff)

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Posted: #51
Seattle fan too, hate Denver, love Manning, but I couldn't agree more. It kills me to lay of so much on a team that don't even like, but winning is winning.

The only way Seattle wins is if they can rattle Manning and that is a tall order. Denver D will protect Manning.....The SuperBowl winner depends on it.
 
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Posted: #52
CC12,

Strong analysis and you put a lot of things I was thinking into a very nice write up here.

Thank you.  Riding hard on Broncos...best of luck to us all.
 
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Posted: #53
I like the "Over".   BOL my friend.
 
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Posted: #54
irage

FadeThisXen


to me, all stats aside:

1) Denver Offensive Line > Seattle Defensive Line

and

2) Denver Defensive Line > Seattle Offensive Line

if u think Seattle's DB's will win this PotBowl for u vs P. Manning... u'd better put that pipe down.. they are going to get schooled by him.
 
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Posted: #55
PIPE BOWL  

DENVER = SEATTLE  No HFA advantage on that one

Obviously, though,  have to lean to THUG squad with "usage"  on that stat 


 
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Posted: #56
POT ROAST !!!!


 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by CC12:

irage

FadeThisXen


to me, all stats aside:

1) Denver Offensive Line > Seattle Defensive Line

and

2) Denver Defensive Line > Seattle Offensive Line

if u think Seattle's DB's will win this PotBowl for u vs P. Manning... u'd better put that pipe down.. they are going to get schooled by him.


I'm on Denver at -1.5. It's a steal in my opinion.
 
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Posted: #58
adding:

Denver -9.5 (+363) 

10% of my original amount

This, like my SB prop bets, won't be counted on my NFL playoff record, win or lose


Final Score Prediction:

Denver 27 - 17 Seattle


 
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Posted: #59
COULD you ask for anything better than a DENVER pick from Seahawks homer

STANDING OVATION CC12  this seals the deal here on Covers and for me still waiting till game day who knows what murphy's law will do !


 
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Posted: #60
I just think the stage is a little too big for Hawks. They have no vets in key positions.

Also, I think DRC and Champ coming back is being overlooked. DRC will lock up Tate, all Hawks other WRs are very avg.

Last point, Seahawks away from home, is WHOLE different ball game. If this game was being played in fair weather, DEN would be -6 or -7..
 
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Posted: #61

Of all the threads i have read over the years this is the most compelling to take a side in any football game----DEN, which i did before i read this (ML -116 pinny) but after reading this i will sleep a little better the next 2 nights.

I had a great playoffs (6-1) but i have never put back to back playoffs like you have going and i can see why, with the logic i have read here cc, congrats, awesome like your points in this thread.

I sure hope in 11 months i can read you stuff again from the start of the playoffs on this great forum.

BTW i picked DEN 27-20 with SEA scoring a TD with 10 sec. left.

I see you at 27-17, i hope this will go under the cat. great minds think alike.

All the best and GREAT WORK.

 
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Posted: #62
You guy are so silly to bet Denver

Somebody has to pay for the greedy Vegas
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by CC12:

How can i forget ?

all the Seattle backers are constantly reminding me... lol

But that's a pretty vague statement: Denver's D is ranked #17

First of all, I don't think Denver played "against much weaker opponent" ( i am assuming u r comparing to Seattle's opponents)

2nd of all, Denver Defense's Yards allowed per run (Y/PR) is 3.87 (ranked #8)  Do u know Seattle's rank for Y/PR ?
Ok... its ranked #12 with 3.98 Y/PR

thirdly, when u r playing with a big lead most of the time like Denver, u end up playing loose coverage. Which translates to more yards per game allowed

Lastly, I've seen the Denver Defense really step it up in the playoff (yeah yeah it was against Chargers and Patriots ) and I see them continuing the effort in the SB. I am sure they are sick of hearing how Seattle has the number 1 defense.

Denver Defense = X factor



Of course I meant that.Seattle played against MUCH TOUGHER defenses then Denver did. .Denver Cannot be compared to Seattles defense 1st of all that's just silly.     Denver played against cupcake defenses all year..So to say Seattles offense is terrible is ridiculous and Seattle is the Best defensive team in the NFL...FACT..
 
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Posted: #64

Expect Manning to play the way he "hasn't" up to this point.    He will study the Seattle D and find the points to exploit.

He is a study of the game and defenses like no other.  I would have my money on him.

 

 

 
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Posted: #65
Mrbookiekiller

Let'sEat

KevenVanlith 

Rush51

         
 
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Posted: #66
The weather will be fine at low 40s to high 30s with little wind. 

Line is still holding at -2.5

Won't know until prob 30 mins before game time to see which team the big money drops on.  
 
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Posted: #67
Jennifer Garner is 9-0 in picking the superbowl winner over the last 9 years.

Her pick today, those guys with the horse.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

QBPR has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value going forward.

The team which plays the best in this stat throughout the playoffs wins the SB more often than not.

You want to know a stat that is meaningless ?

Tried to help you out, some very valuable lessons learned, those who learn these lesson will prosper in the years ahead.

 
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Posted: #69
Seattle D Overated ?????
 
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Posted: #70
Denvers O was waaaaaay Overated ....
 
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

CORRELATION TO VICTORY.................

The team that wins the ave per rush battle wins about 47% of all games.

The team that wins the QBPR battle wins about 80% of all games.

PREDICTIVE VALUE...............................

The team coming into a game with the better ave per rush wins about 48% of all games.

Team coming into the game with  the better QBPR wins about 65% of all games.

The one stat your counting on to call Denver a better defense  turns-out to be the most meaningless of all stats.

I just post the facts, it's up to you to use them wisely.

Which stat told the tale of this years SB winners ?

QBPR .................

Wilson 123.1

Manning 73.5

Ave gain per rush....................

Seattle's defense 1.9

Denver's defense 4.7

Ave gain per rush has a 48% predictive value and trying to build an argument around this stat is meaningless.

Denver's supposed improved defense in the playoffs in ave per rush was not predictive, QBPR was very, very predictive and meaningful.

If your a newbie and want to learn to improve your skills, build your case with meaningful stats with high correlations to victory and predictive value.

There's no excuse not to take away some very valuable lessons from this years playoffs and SB.

I've already learned a couple of new things I'll take away to improve my skills that will be useful in the years ahead.

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