As the title indicates, I plan on posting all of my plays (which are unconventional) in this thread. They will almost all be on moneyline favorites parlayed together in some fashion. I will mix in teasers, some totals, and very rarely an ATS play if I feel really good about it. Now I know I am going to get a lot of negative feedback for this strategy, but I would like to explain myself below. If you don't care to read this lengthy explanation, go ahead and blindly follow or tell me I’m an idiot :)
I've tried to beat the spreads like everyone else on here. What usually happens? You can have good runs and bad runs, but it is damn near impossible to hit somewhere around 53 or 54 percent without some kind of luck streak or a tremendous amount of time spent doing research. I know there are people on this site and others that post plays and hit at a 53% clip. That's awesome for them and I wish I could do it myself. That being said, I don't want to put a ridiculous amount of time into analyzing spreadsheets. These unconventional plays that I make don't require too much analysis.
Why try to get an edge on Vegas? All the stats and trends that you can look at, Vegas has already seen. Sure there are mistakes posted from time to time, but I'm not sharp enough to see them right away and take advantage. So, let's let Vegas be the sharp ones here. By relying on their sharpest of lines, I feel like I have a greater shot betting moneylines. For example, if a team is -8 and -420 on the moneyline, I can pair that with another team at the same odds. That will give me a line of -250 or something like that. Now, if Vegas is within 7 points of being right I will win my wager. 7 points!! How often will Vegas be more than 7 points off on a spread? Sure it happens, but with a little bit of research I think I can feel good about playing certain parlays like this with the hopes of making money. Bottom line, if Vegas is right, then we make money, and Vegas is right all the damn time.
The same logic applies to teasers as well. In a 3 team 10 point teaser we need Vegas to be off by 9 points or less, which is very safe in my opinion. I know teasers are always labeled as sucker bets so I won't try and defend them too much more than this. All I know is that they have been profitable for me in the past because I really focus on teasing through key numbers. Look up Wong teasers for more strategy on this. I won't play many, but when I play a teaser I usually feel very confident in it.
As for the totals, I will be brief. I like to look at the baseline totals and play those. Preferably I play the baseline totals of about 36-38 and take the under. For example, when 2 shitty offenses play each other I like to play the under because I know Vegas won't set it much lower than 34-36. This number range represents a sort of baseline for totals. They can't really set a total of 24, which is how most of us see a game like this going, ending something like 14-10. So I see this as a profitable wager.
That's basically it for defending myself. Now, I want to hear your guys' opinion on this topic. Feel free to rip me or agree with me. I really, truly do enjoy talking about strategies and breaking down expected values even if we aren't in agreement. I know some people on this forum feel like pros, but we really can learn a lot from each other just by having discussions in threads like this. My ultimate goal would be to have a few of you guys chime in each week and discuss plays with me. Maybe you know a certain team really well and you can steer me away from a bad bet I'm about to lock in, or vice versa you can suggest a winner and make us all some cash! I think that with each others help we can really turn a profit with this strategy.
So, positive or negative, let's start the discussion!
an initial play that i like is the texans ML parlayed with the eagles ML at -193. i know the juice is still terrible, but remember UNCONVENTIONAL!
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